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Thread: Stratfor's Decade Forecast: 2015-2025

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Anyone have a copy of the previous forecast, about what would happen in this decade?

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Versus View Post
    Post-China economies, that happen to be located in the region that is most seismically active and prone to catastrophic typhoons that can wipe out entire factories in a matter of hours, together with the workforce and their families. Those economies have iron hand govt that ensure low wages. So, basically we will have one iron hand giga mega govt, aka China that supports smaller iron hands so that they can become China's Chinas. Also most of those economies are located on islands.

    Africa. You want to introduce "Amanda,Carrie,Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte" logic to a countries that have serious AIDS problems??? First thing that will happen is that as those countries develop, they will draw population form other surrounding countries, you will have huge population migration, crime and of course diseases that are not flue.

    So basically a straight line,from the shores of Africa,across oceans to the shores of Peru and Mexico which will be hubs. Areas connected are prone to diseases and natural disasters and driven by the logic of low wage and growth. In cultures that have strong collective memory of colonial governance ?

    The potential for the disaster is mind blowing.
    Not to mention that ongoing automation trends means that a lot of jobs that would have transitioned from China to say, India or Vietnam, will be done by robots 10 years from now.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    And we barely touch the borders of Russki Mir .With or without those lands,Russia is the same.Russian influence can even rise.Russian pipelines still bypass those lands and no support for any enemy of Russia can come from both Poland and Romania.

    A Russia under threat from elsewhere can even begin a historical reconciliation with Poland, Romania and the Baltic states.
    Wouldn't western Ukraine include Kiev, which by all accounts seems pretty Orange?

    The Russian nationalists have a bizarre claim to Kiev, just as if the Spanish claimed Rome or British claimed Hamburg.

  4. #19
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    Western Ukraine is the nationalist-extremist kind of orange Stratfor likes. Kiev isn't, for the most part.

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    Not to mention that ongoing automation trends means that a lot of jobs that would have transitioned from China to say, India or Vietnam, will be done by robots 10 years from now.
    That is so good. So we will have economy that is based on robots whom doesn't require salary, but require high technical skills to maintain and operate. However, those skills can be achieved only trough education which costs money. But if robots are doing all the work, how they will earn money to pay for the education,that is needed to operate robots, when all jobs are done by robots whom are working without salary?
    Maybe better way would be to some how train animals to do certain tasks or maybe even genetically modify them to do more complex tasks...

  6. #21
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Dude,we had this before.2000 years ago.Those who owned many slaves,lived the good life.Those who owned a few lived decently.Those who owned none,struggled.Slaves' opinions didn't mattered.

    Now replace slave with robots,internet and 3d printing,mix in a bit of democracy and market economy and we have a great potential for success.Not for everyone,not suddenly and not without a lot of bloodshed in between.But the potential for a better world exists and it begins to make itself felt.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Dude,we had this before.2000 years ago.Those who owned many slaves,lived the good life.Those who owned a few lived decently.Those who owned none,struggled.Slaves' opinions didn't mattered.

    Now replace slave with robots,internet and 3d printing,mix in a bit of democracy and market economy and we have a great potential for success.Not for everyone,not suddenly and not without a lot of bloodshed in between.But the potential for a better world exists and it begins to make itself felt.
    In order to make a robot you need raw materials and energy. Energy to acquire the raw material and energy to process them into useful form. Than you need knowledge of how to make something out of those raw materials. Like a robot. Than you need to teach people how to operate them.
    Its easier with slaves, all it takes is a man and woman...

  8. #23
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    It's not that human knowledge will cease to exist.
    Slaves aren't easier at all.Yoou need to spend at least a decade until they're good enough to fetch water,let alone harder tasks.And they still need training and overseeing.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    It's not that human knowledge will cease to exist.
    Slaves aren't easier at all.Yoou need to spend at least a decade until they're good enough to fetch water,let alone harder tasks.And they still need training and overseeing.
    Umm I don't know, been working in the entertainment industry, I've seen some really negative trends.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    Not to mention that ongoing automation trends means that a lot of jobs that would have transitioned from China to say, India or Vietnam, will be done by robots 10 years from now.
    Skynet
    Chimo

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Versus View Post
    In order to make a robot you need raw materials and energy. Energy to acquire the raw material and energy to process them into useful form. Than you need knowledge of how to make something out of those raw materials. Like a robot. Than you need to teach people how to operate them.
    Its easier with slaves, all it takes is a man and woman...
    Robots make a far better workforce than slaves even if you exclude the ethical problems of slave ownership. Slaves constantly require food, clothing, healthcare, supervision, and are still an unreliable workforce that constitutes a threat of uprising.

    Robots can be constructed by other robots, with materials mined by robots, and imprinted with the programing required for the task they are to perform. Robots can perform their own routine maintenance, and computers can already modify their own code to increase efficiency or even write new programs to suit a desired outcome specified by a human.

    Robots won't replace every job, but they excel at replacing anything that involves lots of repetition. People often think of manufacturing jobs that involve repetitive motion, but other jobs up for replacement include pharmacists, drivers, babysitters, soldiers, sports reporters, and lawyers.

    None of these industries will be completely devoid of humans, but humans will play the role of experts, planners, and supervisors rather than doing paperwork and repetitive tasks themselves.

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Slightly related
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  13. #28
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    There are abandonned factories full of robots. The Japanese learned the hardway that robots are not the best long term economic workforce. They can do a limited number of upgrades before they had to be scrapped. TOYOTA had to rip out all their robots when they cannot handle new car designs and new engine specifications. Humans can at least be retrained. Robots got to be retooled and reprogramed and replaced when they are not accurate enough for new precision.
    Chimo

  14. #29
    Armchair Worrier Senior Contributor bolo121's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    There are abandonned factories full of robots. The Japanese learned the hardway that robots are not the best long term economic workforce. They can do a limited number of upgrades before they had to be scrapped. TOYOTA had to rip out all their robots when they cannot handle new car designs and new engine specifications. Humans can at least be retrained. Robots got to be retooled and reprogramed and replaced when they are not accurate enough for new precision.
    In the old days yes, but the current generation are scary, very scary.
    The way every military worth the name is pouring cash into better hardware smarter AI....Skynet is coming.
    For Gallifrey! For Victory! For the end of time itself!!

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    There are abandonned factories full of robots. The Japanese learned the hardway that robots are not the best long term economic workforce. They can do a limited number of upgrades before they had to be scrapped. TOYOTA had to rip out all their robots when they cannot handle new car designs and new engine specifications. Humans can at least be retrained. Robots got to be retooled and reprogramed and replaced when they are not accurate enough for new precision.
    That happens when you reduce human existence to a simple equation of cost/profit. There are some that are ok with that, others well, not so much.

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