perhaps, but i still don't find this the likeliest scenario.
my guess is that if the japanese were dumb enough to try their luck against the Soviets in Dec 1941 instead of the US, the Soviets inflict a bad defeat on the japanese, somewhere between khalkin gol and August Storm.
japanese high command probably slags down in some bloodletting between the Navy and Army factions. japan probably wouldn't surrender but the kwantung army is toast.
the Soviet counteroffensive is delayed by several months, and when it does kick off they lose considerably more soldiers. but it'd likely succeed anyways.
overall soviets lose maybe 3 months and another 500,000 or so men (mostly inflicted by the germans).
on the plus hand side (for the soviets that is), when the immediate emergency is over, taking all of manchuria and korea would be pretty easy clean-up operations in 1943-1944. in this scenario i can't see the japanese daring to attack the US/UK after getting so thoroughly trashed by the Soviets.
by far the biggest factor here is whether or not Hitler declares war on the US, and when. without US intervention, both sides are pretty much exhausted by mid-1945 at pre-war (1939) borders.
my guess is that if the japanese were dumb enough to try their luck against the Soviets in Dec 1941 instead of the US, the Soviets inflict a bad defeat on the japanese, somewhere between khalkin gol and August Storm.
japanese high command probably slags down in some bloodletting between the Navy and Army factions. japan probably wouldn't surrender but the kwantung army is toast.
the Soviet counteroffensive is delayed by several months, and when it does kick off they lose considerably more soldiers. but it'd likely succeed anyways.
overall soviets lose maybe 3 months and another 500,000 or so men (mostly inflicted by the germans).
on the plus hand side (for the soviets that is), when the immediate emergency is over, taking all of manchuria and korea would be pretty easy clean-up operations in 1943-1944. in this scenario i can't see the japanese daring to attack the US/UK after getting so thoroughly trashed by the Soviets.
by far the biggest factor here is whether or not Hitler declares war on the US, and when. without US intervention, both sides are pretty much exhausted by mid-1945 at pre-war (1939) borders.
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