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Thread: What was the point of Hitler's project?

  1. #46
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tantalus View Post
    Dok, my position is all there in my posts. The potentials are...

    Operationally due to the remote region such a front would take a long time to develop.

    The IJA would be fully committed, all southern forces and material that did combat the USA in the war thrown north at the same time the Germans strike in the East. Its not simply another Khalkhin Gol. And this is not the Soviet monster late in the war, but one being thrashed during Barbarbossa.

    if the transiberian route is cut, chinese lose war supply from the soviets as envisioned by the north strike strategy, strengthening IJA position in China.

    The soviet need to commit heavily to dismiss the IJA even in a scenario remotely close to a quick crushing defeat, heavily, means less men and material to the fight the Germans at a crucial period in the war. They can not redeploy to engage the entire IJA early in the war quickly enough and with enough strength to crush the IJA while the Germans are executing Barbarossa.

    The US enter later the war later. How long is crucial...

    Land Lease arrives later, when it does arrive the IJN engage those conveys as it has direct material consequence to their strategy.

    There is a later threat to the Germans in Africa and the west. The German even removed men and materials from the east to the west during the war.

    The Germans can commit more heavily in the east. The soviets position is weakened.

    Worse case scenario is the soviets come to the table from behind the Urals. The war lengthens dramatically.

    Best case scenario Soviets continue to fight but the allies face a stronger axis powers in 1943, lengthening the war.

    A key question becomes how long does it take the States to enter if the Japanese never look south.

    OOE has provided his insight on these premises and stated there is no chance of a meaningful impact of a Japanese north strike on the soviet war machine, including potential scenarios of the indirect consequences of a south strike never happening or being delayed, so at this point I don't see much more to add.
    You have some points,the Col has some points.

    I believe you're correct the Soviets can't win fast without a massive redeployment in 1941-42.That's not going to happen tha way August Storm happened.What they can do is another khalkhin Gol.They take the entire IJA and thrash it in a maneuver battle with whatever they have left in the FE after a good bunch started moving West in early 1941.
    But you're also wrong.The Soviet soldiers fought to the death,no problem,no questions asked wherever they were asked.Against the Japanese,vs the Finns or Poles.They gave up on their own soil,not on the soil of others.And the reason is quite simple.There was no way to escape.But by giving up to the Germans they thought there was a way to escape.The Germans were liberators.The Japanese were just land grabbing outsiders.

    So here's the thing.Will the Japanese ,doubly beaten by the Soviets,still try their luck in a southern push?I suppose after they got thrashed,they'll make a peace treaty and the SOviets will accept it.
    Can the Americans get involved 100% without the day of infamy?
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    I believe you're correct the Soviets can't win fast without a massive redeployment in 1941-42.
    But at that point, Stalin's spies had already determined the Japanese had chickened out and allowed him to move his armies West. Before Stalin moved his armies, he had more than enough strength to kill the Kwantung Army without breaking a sweat.
    Chimo

  3. #48
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    That's true,Sir.But this is a 'what if''.The supposition is the Japs keep thinking what they do in 1941 and leave their options open.

    Problem is,the Soviets without the FE can't win Moscow.Without another stream of reinforcements in 1942,they can keep Stalingrad,but they have to give up either Mars or Uranus.And one op is going to fail big.And that puts the Soviets out of the game.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  4. #49
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    Again, Stalin moves to the Urals. He ain't out of the fight. Japan dies and Stalin just got a 200,000 penal Japanese Army. And the USN and the British Empire now just got one enemy.
    Chimo

  5. #50
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Again, Stalin moves to the Urals. He ain't out of the fight. Japan dies and Stalin just got a 200,000 penal Japanese Army. And the USN and the British Empire now just got one enemy.
    How does dead Japanese army equals IJN out of fight? In 1941, 1942 they were still in the fight.
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  6. #51
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Stalin may be in Urals.The Germans get half a million Caucasians+oil+Turkey+acces to Iran+mechanized units racing towards Suez,Basrah&YEmen.
    Stalin out,means the Brits out of ME and the BIA is now locked in Pakistan instead of Burma.Brits out of ME means the Americans don't have a chance of staying in North Africa.
    Germans getting Soviet Oil by 1944 means the Luftwaffe can protect its own sky and industry.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  7. #52
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    Again, let's look at the history.

    Stalin burned his oil fields, knocking them out for a year. The oil fields in the ME ain't developed. There was not even one single drill there at the time. The RN now has doubled the ships at her disposal and the Battle of the Atlantic becomes moot as the RN has more than enough ships to punch through without any significant loss. Also means that the ME is theirs to keep since the KM ain't coming out to play.

    And by early 42, four USN aircraft carriers in the Atlantic. Game Over for the Germans in Africa.
    Chimo

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    I know this is a what-if but somethings don't change. The armies that did MARS and URANUS don't disappear. The IJA don't all of a sudden get a Masters Degree in manuver warfare. Hitler don't stop being Hitler and Stalin don't stop being Stalin.
    Chimo

  9. #54
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Yes Sir.They took them out for a year.By 1944-mid 1944 at most you have Soviet oil back online.

    And no amount of naval power can resist in Med with a fully commited Luftwaffe around.
    Frankly,the Allied in 1943 have no way to stop the Germans coming into Syria and Irak through Turkey.Because if the Caucasus falls,Turkey joins the Axis.
    Rommel may die in Tunisia.But this is insufficient.You've got to stop a German army in Levant.The 8th Army is not big enough&good enough.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    With a full steamed US industrial might that put 10 more carriers into the sea by 1944 and the Texas oil fields in full production?

    Also, let's not overstate Siberian strength and understate European Russia. The lines held. The Siberians were needed for the counter-offensive but the lines held without them.

    Again, with Stalin at the Urals and the armies of MARS and URANUS going nowhere, the Germans cannot leave European Russia without massive armies to repulse any Soviet attack.

    Also, the real history saw the RAF and the USAAC decimated the Luftwaffe and that is with Japan draining a lot of air planes. That part was not going to change and in fact, was going to get a lot worst for the Germans.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 03 Feb 15, at 02:23.
    Chimo

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    How does dead Japanese army equals IJN out of fight? In 1941, 1942 they were still in the fight.
    A dead Japanese Army in Manchuria and Korea meant a dead Imperial Japanese Empire and a dead IJE equals the IJN out of the fight.
    Chimo

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    now the big question is, why didn't Stalin do Japan earlier?

    i mean after the fact it's pretty clear that the USSR would crush japan, but this wasn't abundantly clear from 1939-1942. khalkin gol was bad for the japanese but it wasn't anything as lopsided as August Storm was, which makes sense as the Soviets put in a LOT more men/material in the latter...and had all of the operational theory, TTPs, and the American-provided mobility down.

    in the context of 1942 or 1943 an invasion of Manchuria/China, especially if Stalin had been pushed back to the Urals, would have been military do-able but politically, i have my doubts. the main benefit of eliminating the IJA in China/Manchuria/Korea would have primarily been to get the Americans into Europe faster, because industries in Asia then were pisspoor and weren't worth the trouble of taking. and that's assuming the Japanese didn't just hunker down in the main islands and gloriously await death by invasion, which is pretty much what they did in real life. moreover the USSR wasn't low on manpower yet-- even a 200,000-strong penal army would be blown in what, half of a battle's worth by the Soviets.

    domestically, Stalin had a pretty strong position but it surely wasn't invincible, and if Beria or Molotov or Zhukov thought he was off his rocker, one of the three (probably Beria) would have tried to arrange for an accident or a martyrdom of Comrade Stalin.
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  13. #58
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    The armies that did MARS and URANUS could do AUGUST STORM without blinking an eye. More over, the Japanese withdrew some 75% of their forces from China and Korea in anticipation of an invasion as were munitions and raw materials. Those armies would die in China ... or more likely, in Europe.

    And even at a half a battle's worth ... win or lose, it's half a battle the Germans could not afford to fight.

    As for Beria, Molotov, or Zhukov, the position is the same ... they were all in for the win.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 03 Feb 15, at 15:22.
    Chimo

  14. #59
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    With a full steamed US industrial might that put 10 more carriers into the sea by 1944 and the Texas oil fields in full production?

    Also, let's not overstate Siberian strength and understate European Russia. The lines held. The Siberians were needed for the counter-offensive but the lines held without them.

    Again, with Stalin at the Urals and the armies of MARS and URANUS going nowhere, the Germans cannot leave European Russia without massive armies to repulse any Soviet attack.

    Also, the real history saw the RAF and the USAAC decimated the Luftwaffe and that is with Japan draining a lot of air planes. That part was not going to change and in fact, was going to get a lot worst for the Germans.
    1.Sir the army of Mars died achieving nothing and the army of Uranus died during Manstein's counteroffensive.Without German operational mistakes it would have died on the Don.But in this what-if,the Soviets can do only one operation.
    2.USAAF &RAF decimated the LW,but only after LW was low on fuel and pilots.Plus,LW had a good chunk in the East.Overlord becomes debatable in the historical timeframe for this reason alone,but there are more.
    3.Historically,Overlord was closer to failure than people like to think.Just a bit more deciseveness on the GErman part and you get 3 Pz divisions pouring on the beacheads.Salerno was a close call with only ~80 German AFV's around.
    In the alternative,you get more German formations in the West.Simply by not needing to keep 30 divisions in Italy and a bunch of others in Sth France and a few in Greece,they'd more than double the combat power on the Atlantic.
    Of course,even if Overlord &everything else fails,it goes nuclear in '45.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  15. #60
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    My point was the numbers were still there. They don't disappear, not even the IJA. They just would be thrown into the European meatgrinder.

    Add to that, the might of the USN and the British Empire that were tied down by the Japanese, that now could be thrown at the Germans.

    The resource picture don't change. As long as the Soviets were in the fight, Germany was not going to withdraw squat from the Soviet Russia and that meant the oil fields will still get burned, the LW would still be bled white in repulsing and attacking Ural USSR.

    Some battles would not have occurred (Stalingrad) and others disasters (Moscow) but as long as Soviets were in the fight, the Germans ain't going to reduce their strength one single bit.

    But add in the numbers from the Pacific Theatre, including a now penal IJA, against Germany. The odds became staggering.

    But let's say for a moment that MARS and URANUS disappeared. There still BAGRATION and BERLIN. What about those armies?
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 03 Feb 15, at 15:47.
    Chimo

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