Today's update:
The vote was 61-39 against the spill motion. Abbott remains PM for now. He will probably be safe until the budget is delivered in a few months & perhaps a while longer. However, the problems here are multiple.
The biggest one is that Abbott remains unpopular. A poll released this morning puts the government 14% down. It is consistent with other polls. Abbott's personal popularity is somewhere near the lowest recorded by a first term PM since serious polling began 40 years ago. he may improve things a bit, but it looks very much like a public that has never really liked him has turned decisively. Past evidence suggests that at this point voters simply stop listening to a leader & wait for the first chance to club them.
The other issue is that this will embolden potential rivals. This situation wasn't driven by an ambitious rival, but a grass roots backbench result. The ambitious rival (Malcolm Turnbull) has been uncharacteristically restrained and played his hand well. Much of the behind the scenes work has been done by Arthur Sinodinos, a former chief of staff to Liberal senior statesman John Howard. He was supposed to be finance minister but had to step down doe to corruption allegations (as yet unproven). He is not bound by notional Cabinet loyalty. He & Turnbull and their allies can now spend the coming months organizing their next challenge. This is how Abbott defeated Turnbull in 2009.
I will be shocked if Abbott is PM by Christmas.
The vote was 61-39 against the spill motion. Abbott remains PM for now. He will probably be safe until the budget is delivered in a few months & perhaps a while longer. However, the problems here are multiple.
The biggest one is that Abbott remains unpopular. A poll released this morning puts the government 14% down. It is consistent with other polls. Abbott's personal popularity is somewhere near the lowest recorded by a first term PM since serious polling began 40 years ago. he may improve things a bit, but it looks very much like a public that has never really liked him has turned decisively. Past evidence suggests that at this point voters simply stop listening to a leader & wait for the first chance to club them.
The other issue is that this will embolden potential rivals. This situation wasn't driven by an ambitious rival, but a grass roots backbench result. The ambitious rival (Malcolm Turnbull) has been uncharacteristically restrained and played his hand well. Much of the behind the scenes work has been done by Arthur Sinodinos, a former chief of staff to Liberal senior statesman John Howard. He was supposed to be finance minister but had to step down doe to corruption allegations (as yet unproven). He is not bound by notional Cabinet loyalty. He & Turnbull and their allies can now spend the coming months organizing their next challenge. This is how Abbott defeated Turnbull in 2009.
I will be shocked if Abbott is PM by Christmas.
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