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  • #31
    Today's update:

    The vote was 61-39 against the spill motion. Abbott remains PM for now. He will probably be safe until the budget is delivered in a few months & perhaps a while longer. However, the problems here are multiple.

    The biggest one is that Abbott remains unpopular. A poll released this morning puts the government 14% down. It is consistent with other polls. Abbott's personal popularity is somewhere near the lowest recorded by a first term PM since serious polling began 40 years ago. he may improve things a bit, but it looks very much like a public that has never really liked him has turned decisively. Past evidence suggests that at this point voters simply stop listening to a leader & wait for the first chance to club them.

    The other issue is that this will embolden potential rivals. This situation wasn't driven by an ambitious rival, but a grass roots backbench result. The ambitious rival (Malcolm Turnbull) has been uncharacteristically restrained and played his hand well. Much of the behind the scenes work has been done by Arthur Sinodinos, a former chief of staff to Liberal senior statesman John Howard. He was supposed to be finance minister but had to step down doe to corruption allegations (as yet unproven). He is not bound by notional Cabinet loyalty. He & Turnbull and their allies can now spend the coming months organizing their next challenge. This is how Abbott defeated Turnbull in 2009.

    I will be shocked if Abbott is PM by Christmas.
    sigpic

    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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    • #32
      And its only going to get worse in the short term. The NSW election is in a few weeks time so he has to decide whether or not to play a significant role (that's assuming the NSW Libs even ask, which is an open question at the moment) then after that there's the 2015 budget which had to be promulgated in the face of an unfriendly Senate and with many of last years proposed budget measures still swinging in the wind as unfinished business. All after promising 'a fresh start' only 6 weeks ago. Karma is a bitch.
      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Monash View Post
        And its only going to get worse in the short term. The NSW election is in a few weeks time so he has to decide whether or not to play a significant role (that's assuming the NSW Libs even ask, which is an open question at the moment) then after that there's the 2015 budget which had to be promulgated in the face of an unfriendly Senate and with many of last years proposed budget measures still swinging in the wind as unfinished business. All after promising 'a fresh start' only 6 weeks ago. Karma is a bitch.
        NSW Premier Baird has said he will invite Abbott to campaign. I honestly don't think that even Abbott can sink Baird. The ALP there has been so corrupt & incompetent that they are hard to elect. Baird is also moderate & well liked. He might lose some skin, but I think he'll keep his job.

        The budget is a nightmare. Even a highly competent treasurer would struggle with the current circumstances. We have Joe Hockey. They will patch something together, but it will involve a deficit much bigger than promised and policies most of the party will hate. The Senate cross benchers will be in no mood to be helpful. They weren't helpful against a new government with a big majority when they were novices. Now they have a weak government and a weak PM and they have had a year to get up to speed. The immigration minister effectively forcing them to vote for a measure they disliked by threatening not to release children from detention will cost the Government dear - especially as the kids have not been released yet.

        In short, they need to produce a budget they don't agree with & can't afford and get it through a Senate that hates their guts. If they can do it Abbott might actually survive. Not putting money on it.
        sigpic

        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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        • #34
          [QUOTE=Bigfella;987251]NSW Premier Baird has said he will invite Abbott to campaign. I honestly don't think that even Abbott can sink Baird. The ALP there has been so corrupt & incompetent that they are hard to elect. Baird is also moderate & well liked. He might lose some skin, but I think he'll keep his job.[QUOTE]

          Agreed, after their (rightly deserved) disastrous loss last election State ALP strategists acknowledged that it would be at least two, possibly three elections before the people of NSW trusted the Labour party enough to put them back in office. Just increasing the number of seats they hold to a respectable number would be regarded by members as a 'win' this time round. So long as it is enough to provide a basis for potential victory 4 years from now.

          Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
          The budget is a nightmare. Even a highly competent treasurer would struggle with the current circumstances. We have Joe Hockey. They will patch something together, but it will involve a deficit much bigger than promised and policies most of the party will hate. The Senate cross benchers will be in no mood to be helpful. They weren't helpful against a new government with a big majority when they were novices. Now they have a weak government and a weak PM and they have had a year to get up to speed. The immigration minister effectively forcing them to vote for a measure they disliked by threatening not to release children from detention will cost the Government dear - especially as the kids have not been released yet.

          In short, they need to produce a budget they don't agree with & can't afford and get it through a Senate that hates their guts. If they can do it Abbott might actually survive. Not putting money on it.
          Yep, I expect another budget circus unless the Libs produce a budget so noncontroversial that it as little or no economic impact - which is a losing proposition for them next time round anyway.
          Last edited by Monash; 10 Feb 15,, 13:34.
          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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          • #35
            Where's Sir Johannes "Joh" Bjelke-Petersen, KCMG when you need him, eh? In a hole, that's where.

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