Page 3 of 10 FirstFirst 12345678910 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 142

Thread: US troops arriving in Liberia to help contain Ebola

  1. #31
    Global Moderator
    Military Professional
    Defense Professional
    Albany Rifles's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Apr 07
    Location
    Prince George, VA
    Posts
    8,182
    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    "

    If by feet you mean track pads.... walking is for the Infantry.
    There...I fixed it.
    "The genius of you Americans is that you make no clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them we are missing." - Gamal Abdel Nasser

  2. #32
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Jan 06
    Location
    DPRK, Demokratik People's Republik of Kalifornia
    Posts
    23,775
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    My reaction was "why are we sending several thousand soldiers to West Africa?"

    Apparently they are doing construction work and supporting logistics. My next reaction was whether we could substitute unemployed Americans for uniformed American soldiers. Or just pay Pakistan or India to send people.

    My prior reading suggests that ebola isn't really contagious in normal person-to-person contact but is highly contagious in closer contact that typically happens in healthcare settings, which means healthcare workers are really vulnerable to infection. So the biggest danger to us is sending our health-care workers there, so let's not do that, and other than that I don't really care. I sincerely doubt any West African nations are going to be toppled over this. Their biggest danger is actually the destruction of their already limited health care infrastructure which would lead to the spread of OTHER diseases.
    IE, if 20-30% of your nurses and doctors are dead/out of commission from ebola, you might have, I don't know, a measles or chlorea outbreak.

    Someone still needs to sub in more health-care workers and as far as I am concerned it shouldn't be anyone from the US (unless they're dumb enough to volunteer, then go right on ahead).

    My next concern is that my Wife, working from home, noticed that one physician tried to substitute Domperidone for Risperidone because they sound the same. So maybe Liberians are better off with ebola than US doctors.
    This is a valuable training exercise for the US military's biohazard units.

    IF something involving highly contagious pathogen of whatever nature/origin should happen (again), we would have the personnel with experiences in dealing with it.

    No amount of training exercises and simulations can substitute a live event.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  3. #33

    Military Professional
    Military Professional S2's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 06
    Location
    Portland, Oregon
    Posts
    10,779
    "...This is a valuable training exercise for the US military's biohazard units..."

    Not sure it reaches further than they've the need and we may have the means to help. Let's hope like hell that's the case.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  4. #34
    Global Moderator
    Military Professional
    Defense Professional
    Albany Rifles's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Apr 07
    Location
    Prince George, VA
    Posts
    8,182
    No other nation can mount a transnational and intercontinental effort on this scale.

    We have the means to do this. We can sustain a 24 hour OPTEMPO indefinitely while others do the details.

    Big is what we are good at.

    And frankly if there is one country in Africa to which we owe a debt it is Liberia....we had a hand in its founding and sustaining through the generations.
    "The genius of you Americans is that you make no clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them we are missing." - Gamal Abdel Nasser

  5. #35
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
    Join Date
    26 Aug 06
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,211
    Thanks for chiming in Citanon, always good to have an expert opinion. I more or less need to guess what's important and what's not and hope my Election Day vote isn't too far off
    Hope you don't mind if I bother you with a few questions.
    What's the actual probability this becomes more contagious, and while still maintaining its lethality? I'm trying to think back to historical pandemics, and I can't think of any historical cases like this. We seem to be talking serious Black Swan, as in, this has not happened in recorded history Black Swan.
    Most pandemics, to my recollection, involve viruses that mutate really quickly (and they are never SUPER lethal) or microbial pathogens spread in part by extremely poor sanitation practices.
    So with these heuristics, ebola doesn't keep me up at night, even if it is the worst biosafety 4 outbreak ever. Right now I am way, way more concerned about MERS than I am about Ebola.
    I don't care so much about the US troops building healthcare infrastructure, but I really don't know how this impacts military readiness. Hopefully the big boys are making good decisions. They seem pretty reserved.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  6. #36
    Contributor Red Team's Avatar
    Join Date
    04 Oct 11
    Location
    NY
    Posts
    721
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    What's the actual probability this becomes more contagious, and while still maintaining its lethality? I'm trying to think back to historical pandemics, and I can't think of any historical cases like this. We seem to be talking serious Black Swan, as in, this has not happened in recorded history Black Swan.
    Not Citanon, but we have actually come very close to losing the mutagenic dice roll in regards with the Ebola virus. USAMRIID and the CDC pretty much almost shat their collective pants when they discovered an Ebola variant among a group of imported caged macaques in Virginia that turned out to be airborne transferable. Thankfully they determined after awhile that it was not infectious to humans, only the monkeys that they were initially found in.

    Reston virus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    There's an intriguing book documenting Ebola and the people whose jobs were to study and, if necessary, combat it called "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston that I'd recommend checking out if you're interested.
    "Draft beer, not people."

  7. #37
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,516
    GV,

    The correct scientific answer is that we just don't know what the chances are. However, some of "we just don't knows" in science are more concerning than others. In this case there is a special context:

    1: Intact Ebola in even microscopic droplets is actually extremely contagious. Any microscopic cut on your skin, your mucous membranes comes in contact with live virus, and you can be infected. If you touch the door knob that has the sweat of a symptomatic Ebola patient, you are at substantial risk. If that person sneezed into your eyes, you are at substantial risk. If microscopic quantities of that person's bodily fluids touches any part of your exposed skin, you are at risk.

    So why is it called "not contagious"? Because the virus has low environmental stability. It is very contagious when intact, but it is intact for only a very short period of time out in the environment. This brings me to a second point:

    2: What we know about Ebola's environmental stability comes from field experiences in the climate of West Africa. Many viruses are know to be more stable in colder, wetter climates. In Liberia and Guinea, the climate is warm and humid. The humidity probably helps Ebola. What happens if you go from Liberia, which stays at about 80F all year, to a cold but wet North East US or European fall and winter? No body really knows what would happen in the field.

    3: Is airborne transmission really not occuring? Usually, airborne viruses replicate well in the respiratory pathways and mucous membranes, with the consequence that people will be able to send out aerosols of with viral particles when they sneeze and cough and pick up the virus when they breath in the aerosol and viruses start replicating in their respiratory passageways. Ebola seems to need to contact blood to transmit, it doesn't seem to replicate that effectively in the air passageways and it doesn't seem to be stable in aerosols. But here's the thing:

    What if you were in a small confined space?
    What if you had a cut or tear any where in your mucous membranes?
    What if it's flu season or a cold is going around, and your membranes are already raw and injured from the prior infection?
    What if the aerosol particles got just a little more stable with help, for example, from the colder weather?
    What if your immune system is compromised because you are under stress, were sleep deprived, or had other convolving factors?

    That brings us to the next question:

    4: Why are experienced and well protected health workers catching the disease?


    You've probably heard about the American healthworkers. We also know today that a Spanish nurse who cared for a Spanish patient in Spain is now infected. What you may not have seen is this:

    Scientists dig into Ebola's deadly genes for clues

    leading to this big publication:

    Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak

    Here's the shocker. Four of the people on that author list are dead from Ebola.

    Ebola's heavy toll on study authors | Science/AAAS | News

    One of the nurses had 30 years of experience caring for Lassa fever patients. They presumably had good personal protection equipment due to their scientific collaborations and the specialized nature of the team. Why then did they still catch the virus? In fact, Ebola has been killing the leaders of some of the national response efforts. Smart, well trained, experienced people who probably got the best protection available to them and followed the recommended practices. Why then did they catch the disease? Is it just random chance from having so much contact? Or is there something we are missing?

    This leads me to:

    4: The unprecedented nature of this outbreak. No other Ebola outbreak has had nearly the scale of this virus. Is this purely a geographical and sociological issue? A confluence of unfortunate geography and inept response? Or is there something meaningfully different with this strain of Ebola? (E.g. higher environmental stability). At the present, this is an unanswered scientific question.

    5: The Reston virus. If you have not read Richard Preston's book, The Hot Zone, I strongly recommend a reading. It's a case study of the first Ebola outbreak on US soil. As it turned out, the Reston virus was not virulent in humans. However, it was virulent in monkeys and it likely spread via airborne transmission. We still don't know exactly how lethal the virus was for the monkeys. Lots of monkeys died but there may have been other convolving factors. Nevertheless, the message cannot be missed: Ebola probably has an airborne cousin.

    6: The nature of evolution. Evolution does not produce new characteristics on a whim. It needs a ladder to climb. As long as Ebola is out in isolated parts of Africa, confined to a few cases, the chances of and evolution to airborne transmission is minimal. Random mutations could make changes that make it live just a little longer in the environment, or replicate just a little better in air passage ways, and it wouldn't matter. It's never going to cross that distance to the next hut or the next village. However, now that it's in denser human settlements with crowded apartments, motor vehicles, buses, etc, viruses that have that little extra stability might just gain a little bit of an advantage in transmission. It's got a ladder to climb.

    Now what if it gets into New England or England? Say a cold wet winter. Crowded subways, stressed out people, cold temperatures, lots of humidity in the air, maybe a flu or a cold that is getting passed around. Now the ladder has just gotten a little further. Every little gain in environmental stability or upper air passageway colonization could matter. Where will it climb? Nobody knows.

    Even, let's say that it doesn't spread by respiration ever. Could it gain enough characteristics of stability that it results in a global pandemic?

    7: 100 years is not a very long time to have studied something in science. We have made large gains in understanding viruses, but the amount we still don't know far outstrips what we do know. We have lots of experience on public pandemics of HIV, HPV, HSV, Hepatitis, Rhino viruses and flu viruses, but we don't have that much experience with filo viruses. Our experiences with viruses losing virulence while changing their mode of infectivity basically come down to viruses that have architectures like this:

    Attachment 38159

    But Ebola looks like this:

    Attachment 38160

    If you start fiddling around with the spikes comprising the virus below, could you guarantee that it has the same sort of effect on the behavior of the virus as fiddling around with the spikes comprising the virus above? There is no way you can.

    So in summary, there are two schools of thought:

    School one is what's most often stated to reassure the public: we've been studying viruses for 100 years and have never seen one change its mode of transmission in humans.

    School two is the one you recently heard from head of the UN effort, President Obama and others: there's a chance, we don't know how big it is, but we do know it would be catastrophic.

    Many of the virologists repeating school one to the public, probably have the hairs in the backs of their necks standing up because of school two. Others have decided to just come out and say it.

    Further reporting on the debate:

    'In 1976 I discovered Ebola - now I fear an unimaginable tragedy' | World news | The Observer

    Some Ebola experts worry virus may spread more easily than assumed - LA Times

    Succinctly:

    It's just all speculation, but it is scientifically sound, well informed speculation that is scarying the shit out of many experts.
    Last edited by citanon; 07 Oct 14, at 19:20.

  8. #38
    Global Moderator
    Military Professional
    Defense Professional
    Albany Rifles's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Apr 07
    Location
    Prince George, VA
    Posts
    8,182
    So Citanon, are we talking a 1918-1921 Spanish Flu Pandemic possibility here?

    I have read some of the literature of which you speak (mandatory after ricin and SARS outbreaks) which is why I ask. Not sure how our public health system (not the same as our health care system) could handle it.

    My wife is the ACNO of an urban hospital and is identified as the Incident Response Commander if something happens. And she is not sanguine. FT Lee is supported from her hospital....a large dense population with only TMC support. Fun

    GV

    As for readiness issues....no strain right now. No tap in to the USAR/ARNG. Already seeing quick flex of resources. Monrovia can only handle 3 sorties a day. A Red Horse Team can expand that quickly. The saving grace is the port is intact....and I noticed 2 empty slips in the USNS sector in Hampton Roads this weekend.

    I believe we can handle without much strain. We have a bunch of medical capacity which is well trained after the last 13 years which is not involved in ISIS or Ukraine. Not to mention we do have stuff basically sitting around.
    "The genius of you Americans is that you make no clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them we are missing." - Gamal Abdel Nasser

  9. #39
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,516
    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    So Citanon, are we talking a 1918-1921 Spanish Flu Pandemic possibility here?

    I have read some of the literature of which you speak (mandatory after ricin and SARS outbreaks) which is why I ask. Not sure how our public health system (not the same as our health care system) could handle it.
    AR, I am not a public health professional, but I'd venture that losses of that magnitude or even greater are a possibility if the virus becomes more infectious in the manner we speculated.

    Spanish Flu had a 10%-20% mortality, but that was under turn of the century medical care or no care conditions. One of the unknowns about Ebola today is what the mortality will be under modern critical care, but it seems even under the best care available, the mortality rate could be 20% or higher. With the limited supportive care available in Africa, we're seeing >50%. In my mind, this means that transmission aside, Ebola seems to be far more lethal than Spanish Flu.

    Furthermore, our population today is much more mobile, and this is probably going to help the disease spread from area to area.

    Geographically speaking, I think the good news is given the instability of this virus in the environment warmer, dryer parts of the country (eg, Arizona, Southern California) are probably less at risk. On the other hand, the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest may be especially vulnerable if the virus gets even a little bit hardier.

    Regarding public health, and this is now purely speculation on my part, but look at the symptoms of Ebola - vomiting, diarrhea, bleeding and the apparently extremely infectious nature of this waste material. I think an outbreak of Ebola might be a greater strain on healthcare resources and facilities on a per case basis than pandemic flu.

    Adding to our problems, the early stages of an Ebola infection look a lot like the early stages of Flu or any other virus. If we have an outbreak of Ebola that is coincident with Flu season or cold season, there could be a very serious strain on resources as panicked people rush to the hospital with no good way for the hospital to sort out who has Ebola and who hasn't for at least a couple of days. If there were enough cases in the community that contact tracing becomes problematic and unreliable, then the larger hospitals would have to be prepared to temporarily isolate many patients just to figure out who has Ebola and who hasn't.


    My wife is the ACNO of an urban hospital and is identified as the Incident Response Commander if something happens. And she is not sanguine. FT Lee is supported from her hospital....a large dense population with only TMC support. Fun
    What is the ACNO? It sounds like a job I do not envy under present threat conditions, though it'd be fascinating to get her perspective on all this.
    Last edited by citanon; 08 Oct 14, at 06:01.

  10. #40
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jan 07
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    9,091
    Citanon,

    Lots of interesting info, but also a lot of assumptions and 'what ifs'. If the disease is in any way airborne it isn't operating with remotely the infectiousness of influenza. I actually read the 'hot zone' when it came out, along with a few other things about Ebola (casual interest in infectious diseases at the time). It was certainly scary, but all it proves is that airborne strains exist, not that a non-airborne strain can evolve into an airborne one easily or quickly. Possible, but a long way from established.

    We are also making assumptions about some of the health care professionals who've been infected and the quality of the infection control procedures they were using. I note that so far the US patient, who moved about the community unmonitored for some time, hasn't infected anyone. At this point people in Western societies are much more likely to die driving to the shop to buy surgical masks, gloves an hand soap than they are from Ebola. If Western governments are serious about this they need to set up temperature screening at all international airports & screen anyone who has been in any nation with an outbreak within the relevant time frame. Then do basic health screenings of said people. Not a guarantee, but a measure that offers a first step.

    Before we all start buying canned food & stocking up on ammo, perhaps the example of Nigeria is worth paying attention to. Nigeria is big, chaotic, poorly run & has health infrastructure that even some Africans cringe at. The best thing that can be said about it is that is isn't as much of a train wreck infrastructure wise as places like Sierra Leone & Liberia. After the disease entered the nation undetected and multiple infected persons were able to move about freely for some time, the disease has so far infected 20 & killed 8. It is too soon to declare the outbreak in Nigeria 'over', but at this point it has been contained. This might give some hint as to how successful Western nations could be when confronted with an outbreak.

    As the US confirmed the first case of Ebola outside Africa, world leaders and public health specialists are desperately scrambling to control the west African outbreak. One of the few bright spots is the success of Nigeria in controlling the disease, which could have spiralled out of control in Africa’s most populous country.

    Ebola surfaced in Nigeria in July, but with the final patients under observation given the all-clear, the country is now officially Ebola-free. Nigeria was able to respond relatively quickly, and use its experience in tackling polio to do so. As we have seen in the US, all countries need to be better prepared, with plans in place in case Ebola is imported.

    Nigeria’s outbreak started when Patrick Sawyer, a Liberian-American, flew into Lagos on 20 July. He was already seriously ill and later died. In total there were 19 confirmed cases and one probable case that stemmed from Sawyer’s. Eight of these cases resulted in death and the last case was officially detected on 31 August. Since then, no further cases have been detected.

    Nigeria had a head start over other west African countries. As one of the last countries to still be polio-endemic, Nigeria has been waging a war against the disease. A strong polio surveillance system backed by an emergency command centre, which was built in 2012 by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has ensured agency coordination so that polio outbreaks can be identified quickly and stopped. A cadre of 100 Nigerian doctors trained in epidemiology by international experts, who have helped end polio in countries such as India, makes up the backbone of the rapid disease response team.

    With only six cases of polio this year, Nigeria is tantalisingly close to ending polio and moving the world one step closer to global eradication. But as soon as the Ebola outbreak happened, it was imperative that Nigeria utilised the aces it had up its sleeve.

    Before Sawyer was identified as having Ebola, he had already infected several people while travelling from the plane to the hospital. Having denied being in contact with Ebola, he was treated initially for malaria in a hospital with no infection control. A nurse treating him later died and it was only when malaria treatment failed that Nigeria’s first case of Ebola was identified.

    Once that diagnosis had been made, Nigeria mimicked its own polio response and an Ebola emergency operation centre in Lagos was set up. From the polio response team, 40 of the Nigerian doctors trained in epidemiology were reassigned. This centralised hub coordinated the Nigerian health ministry, the World Health Organisation, Unicef, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Médecins sans Frontières and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

    The response was flawed, it took two weeks for the first isolation ward to open and health workers were initially reluctant to work in it. However, 1,800 health workers were eventually trained, protective gear was provided, and safe wards with enough beds and access to chlorinated water were set up so that patients could be treated safely. In total, health workers made 18,000 visits to 900 people to check the temperatures of possible contacts. As with polio eradication, this wasn’t easy but it was imperative to stopping the disease in its tracks.
    What can Nigeria


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  11. #41
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,516
    Bigfella,

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Citanon,

    Lots of interesting info, but also a lot of assumptions and 'what ifs'. If the disease is in any way airborne it isn't operating with remotely the infectiousness of influenza. I actually read the 'hot zone' when it came out, along with a few other things about Ebola (casual interest in infectious diseases at the time). It was certainly scary, but all it proves is that airborne strains exist, not that a non-airborne strain can evolve into an airborne one easily or quickly. Possible, but a long way from established.

    We are also making assumptions about some of the health care professionals who've been infected and the quality of the infection control procedures they were using. I note that so far the US patient, who moved about the community unmonitored for some time, hasn't infected anyone. At this point people in Western societies are much more likely to die driving to the shop to buy surgical masks, gloves an hand soap than they are from Ebola. If Western governments are serious about this they need to set up temperature screening at all international airports & screen anyone who has been in any nation with an outbreak within the relevant time frame. Then do basic health screenings of said people. Not a guarantee, but a measure that offers a first step.
    We are not making assumptions. We are not proving that ebola can or cannot do X or Y. We are stating the uncertainties and outlining the extrapolated boundaries of possible effects. In this case the effects range from contained to catastrophic. We do not get to pick and chose or uncertainties. We do not get extra time from nature to figure it out. Thus, we have to judge our response and preparation via a careful weighing of knowns and unknowns and our ability to address each should they occur.

    In the real world, rational decision cannot wait for convergence of errors nor is an equal weighing of expected outcomes rational given the absence of reasonable ways to estimate probabilities. Consider further that we get only one shot at the roulette table we then have to tilt preparations toward the extremes and actions toward warding off the extremes.

    Given these circumstances, the stated position of both "schools of thought" I outlined, from scientists to political leaders have been pretty similar:

    ACTION NOW. ACTION YESTERDAY. ACTION AT SCALE. ACTION WITH UTMOST URGENCY.

    Are you contending that it should not be so or that the stated urgency is overblown?

    Before we all start buying canned food & stocking up on ammo, perhaps the example of Nigeria is worth paying attention to. Nigeria is big, chaotic, poorly run & has health infrastructure that even some Africans cringe at. The best thing that can be said about it is that is isn't as much of a train wreck infrastructure wise as places like Sierra Leone & Liberia. After the disease entered the nation undetected and multiple infected persons were able to move about freely for some time, the disease has so far infected 20 & killed 8. It is too soon to declare the outbreak in Nigeria 'over', but at this point it has been contained. This might give some hint as to how successful Western nations could be when confronted with an outbreak.



    What can Nigeria
    As long as there is an uncontrolled infection in West Africa, the evolutionary ladder is present for Ebola to climb. As long as the numbers are growing the risks of catastrophe is also growing. No one disputes this.

    Evolution takes the rare success - and amplifies it exponentially.

    The Nigerian case shows that we can control it in Lagos when an isolated patient arrives and suggests that we will likely control it if isolated cases arrive in the US, but it does nothing to take away from the dangers of a pandemic that is growing exponentially in West Africa.

    CDC estimates as of Sept 23rd: 1.4 million cases by Jan 20, 2015.

    This is without the benefit of increased transmissivity. Imagine the fear and panic this will cause in West Africa, and the subsequent refugee crisis spreading across region and abroad. Do you still think it will still be containable then?
    Last edited by citanon; 08 Oct 14, at 09:09.

  12. #42
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jan 07
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    9,091
    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    We are not making assumptions.
    Sure you are. There are some serious assumptions about the levels of protection health workers and 'experts' infected in Africa were using.

    We are not proving that ebola can or cannot do X or Y. We are stating the uncertainties and outlining the extrapolated boundaries of possible effects. In this case the effects range from contained to catastrophic. We do not get to pick and chose or uncertainties. We do not get extra time from nature to figure it out. Thus, we have to judge our response and preparation via a careful weighing of knowns and unknowns and our ability to address each should they occur.

    In the real world, rational decision cannot wait for convergence of errors nor is an equal weighing of expected outcomes rational given the absence of reasonable ways to estimate probabilities. Consider further that we get only one shot at the roulette table we then have to tilt preparations toward the extremes and actions toward warding off the extremes.
    Last week you were making excited posts based on a photo of some unarmed soldiers on a tarmac. This week it is about what might happen in the event that Ebola does something we have yet to observe a disease doing and rapidly changing its vector of transmission to airborne. 'We' are a bunch of guys on the net, so 'we' don't need to get worked up about anything.

    Given these circumstances, the stated position of both "schools of thought" I outlined, from scientists to political leaders have been pretty similar:

    ACTION NOW. ACTION YESTERDAY. ACTION AT SCALE. ACTION WITH UTMOST URGENCY.

    Are you contending that it should not be so?
    I'm contending that there isn't much point us here getting worked up about this at the moment, especially since Nigeria appears to have stopped the disease in its tracks. I'm happy for the WHO, CDC & anyone else who cares to actually do something about it to go right ahead & do it. We aren't them. We don't need to get all excited.

    As long as there is an uncontrolled infection in West Africa, the evolutionary ladder is present for Ebola to climb. As long as the numbers are growing the risks of catastrophe is also growing. No one disputes this.

    Evolution takes the rare success - and amplifies it exponentially.
    And if my aunt was a bloke she would be my uncle. There are uncontrolled infections of Malaria, HIV & a bunch of other stuff all over the world. We aren't jumping up & down about them suddenly and dramatically changing their transmission path. Needing to be aware of all possibilities isn't the same as treating all of them equally. We treat the most likely the most seriously.

    The Nigerian case shows that we can control it in Lagos when an isolated patient arrives and suggests that we will likely control it if isolated cases arrive in the US, but it does nothing to take away from the dangers of a pandemic that is growing exponentially in West Africa.
    It wasn't one isolated patient. A number of people who came into contact with Sawyer before he was isolated and were infected. One of them travelled to another city. It wasn't just one person and it wasn't just Lagos. Yet despite the state of Nigeria's health care system and the vast population there hasn't been a 'breakout'. This isn't Nigeria's first Ebola outbreak. They contained those too.

    Sawyer had come into contact with someone who ended up in Port Harcourt. That person, a regional official, went to a doctor who ended up dying from Ebola in August. Within a week, 70 people were being monitored. It ballooned to an additional 400 people in that one city.

    Success stories of people coming through strict Ebola surveillance alive and healthy helped encourage more people to come forward, as they recognized that ending up in a contact tracer's sights didn't mean a death sentence.

    In the end, contact-tracers — trained professionals and volunteers — conducted 18,500 face-to-face visits to assess potential symptoms, according to the CDC, and the list of contacts throughout the country grew to 894. Two months later, Nigeria ended up with a total of 20 confirmed or probable cases and eight deaths.
    Ebola outbreak: What Europe and US can learn from Nigeria in containing the virus - Health News - Health & Families - The Independent

    CDC estimates as of Sept 23rd: 1.4 million cases by Jan 20, 2015.

    You think it will still be containable then?
    Lets have a look at that estimate:

    ◦Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.
    Assumptions piled on assumptions piled on assumptions. January 2015 is a few months away. I'm betting we don't even hit the low figure by then. Care to wager? Put a figure on it. I've made the same offer to numerous people predicting all manner of things about this and on one has taken me up on it yet. Pity, I could use the pocket money.

    I have no issue with the CDC shouting from the rooftops that something needs to be done and I think the world should pitch in and stop the spread. None of that justifies panic or passing off 'worst case' as even close to 'likely'

    lets be frank here, what the world cares about is that this might kill white people. People like the CDC know this. They did HIV/AIDS already. They deal with it daily. If you doubt this, try to recall how much reporting the 6 million dead in the two recent Congolese Civil Wars got on TV or how much the West did about it. Big nuthin'. The CDC know that the only way to get white people to do more than the minimum is to scare the shit out of them & convince them that this is their problem. I'm fine with that if it gets shit done, but I'm not going all henny penny as a result.

    Bottom line: this is bad and unpleasant if you live in one of the shit holes where it is happening (my best mate adopted two kids from one of them, so I know wherof I speak). We should do all that we can to stop the spread & develop ways to combat the disease. That is it. The world isn't going to end. This isn't the first chapter in a Stephen King book. It is just another bad thing happening in a place most people still can't find on a map top people they wouldn't care about if this was a war or famine or a different disease. I suspect that millions more people will die in the next 12 months in Africa from things that are even cheaper to prevent and we won't even pretend to care. I'm happy that we care about this, but I'll start worrying when I have a reason.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  13. #43
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    13 Nov 07
    Posts
    3,516
    I'll let my comments stand and your arrogance speak for itself.

  14. #44
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jan 07
    Location
    Melbourne
    Posts
    9,091
    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I'll let my comments stand and your arrogance speak for itself.
    Stop taking yourself so seriously. Its an internet forum. Sulking and name calling is all a bit silly. We disagree. Life goes on. We'll know soon enough who is right. About 3 months in fact.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  15. #45
    Global Moderator
    Military Professional
    Defense Professional
    Albany Rifles's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Apr 07
    Location
    Prince George, VA
    Posts
    8,182
    Citanon,

    ACNO....Assistant Chief Nursing Officer. The #2 nurse in a 600 bed hospital. Her boss, the CNO, deal with the other COs and corporate. My wife runs the nursing staff, mental health, nursing education, public health, risk management & works with the Chief Medical Officer on patient care issues. Yeah, and she is the lowest paid of the executives at the hospital!


    Heard this while driving to work this morning. Very illustrative of how even professionals can have a difficult time gearing up to work in the high risk environment.


    CDC Sets Up Mock Ebola Ward Set Up In Alabama : NPR
    "The genius of you Americans is that you make no clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them we are missing." - Gamal Abdel Nasser

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Liberia students all fail university admission exam
    By Doktor in forum World Affairs Board Pub
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 29 Aug 13,, 16:15
  2. Pakistan agrees to send troops to Liberia!
    By PaulDerek in forum Sub-Saharan Africa
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 17 Jan 11,, 07:14
  3. Liberia gets all-female peacekeeping force
    By Tronic in forum International Economy
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 04 Feb 07,, 21:05
  4. 150 Marines leave Liberia
    By Ironduke in forum Europe and Russia
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 27 Sep 03,, 03:26

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •