Japan vows to invest $35 billion over 5 years in India

[Doktor]

Guys, is $30bn (for the sake of rounding the numbers) of FDI really that much for a country like India?

I mean, we could surely enjoy it, but an economy that's close to $2tn? Is it that much?

Is there something more in it?

[Duellist]

Guys, is $30bn (for the sake of rounding the numbers) of FDI really that much for a country like India?

I mean, we could surely enjoy it, but an economy that's close to $2tn? Is it that much?

Is there something more in it?

Doktor,

Realistically, a drop in the ocean, but no-one is going to immediately invest hundreds of billions in a country with a terrible record on corruption, infra and ease of doing business. The world will adopt a wait and see approach IMO , although you will get exceptions from mid-sized markets like the UK and France. We can make a lot of money from India.

However that limited FDI will contribute to a fiscal multiplier effect, especially if the likes of the Japanese are allowed to pour it into infra sectors with no local gov interference. $30 bn could build a lot of roads, sem-high speed rails and airports that could enable the build up of a wave of urbanisation.

[Oracle]

Dok, the net inflow of FDI in 2012-13 was $ 18,286 millions = $18.3 billion. That is a decrease of over $ 1 billion in 2011-12. 2010-11 was even worse. It was due to many factors, some being - corruption, lack of decision making due to coalition government, negative business sentiment, retrospective tax demands, red tape, environment clearance, land acquisition. A high percentage of that FDI were from individuals and companies abroad. The recent Japanese and Chinese Government declarations of investments over the next 5 year period would take FDI inflow in India anywhere from $ 40-60 billion.

Check this.

Net FDI inflows on track to top $30 billion this fiscal: Nomura

If the issues I have listed are resolved, FDI could top $70-80 billion annually. I'm not an economist, that is a guess on resurgent economic activity in India.

[Bigfella]

For all the disagreements over the course of religion and identity in a massively diverse country like India (much of which is overblown on both sides IMO- Modi is clearly not a fascist and the attempt to portray him as one spectacularly backfired, while the Hindu right refuses to acknowledge the discomfiture and fear that groups like the VHP/Bajrang Dal cause ), political paradigms are always determined by macroeconomic fundamentals. For hundreds of millions people living in abject poverty words like 'communal' and 'secular' have little meaning- this is what Modi's campaign team them picked up on and which many Western and Indian elite commentators simply missed. There is a reason he became what David Cameron called 'the man with most votes in the known universe' (or something to that effect IIRC). His immense popularity derives purely from his developmental track record. Incidentally, it is that same poverty which causes such resentment for the British Empire in India, although Indian politicians need to take the lion's share of the blame for poverty post 1947.

Good post.

While I admit the crimes of the Japanese were horrific, why did the occupying authority- the US- not try to make more effort to force the Japanese to confront their actions, as was the case with Germany? That may have contributed to the lack of historical awareness by younger Japanese on why they are feared and hated today.

The Japanese went through the same process of War Crimes trials, removal of officials, payment of compensation and limitation on future military activity as the Germans did. Unfortunately it was never within the power of a temporary occupier to compel an entire nation to face its past. That Germany chose to & japan did not has a lot more to do with internal dynamics than external ones.

[Officer of Engineers]

If that sounds like selective history to you, let me tell you this. Most of the literature from around that time also focuses on the freedom struggle. Even the generation that volunteered as soldiers seemed rather disinterested. My own grandfather was a teacher in East Bengal (now Bangladesh) when he went and joined the Corps of Electrical & Mechanical Engineers (EME). When I quizzed him about it, he said that he spent the those days in Burma, following the war in papers. Not sure if was being completely candid, and I have no way of asking him now (he left us in '98).

Perhaps, it is time you should learn how your army stopped the Japanese monster from invading India.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/wo...ndia.html?_r=0

[Duellist]

Good post.



The Japanese went through the same process of War Crimes trials, removal of officials, payment of compensation and limitation on future military activity as the Germans did. Unfortunately it was never within the power of a temporary occupier to compel an entire nation to face its past. That Germany chose to & japan did not has a lot more to do with internal dynamics than external ones.

I'm not sure I completely agree with that. Japanese crimes have never been actively highlighted by the Western media and elites the same way German ones were; the Holocaust still garners more attention than the greater numbers of Chinese killed by Tokyo's imperialism in the West. Nor do they appear to have been comprehensively investigated the way Hitler's crimes were. Perhaps the issue was that Japanese victims were mostly Asian, or Germany was seen as the greater threat. Either way, I don't think Tokyo was ever pressed to deal with its' past to the same extent as Germany, and it certainly isn't today. With total control of Japan, having subjugated the Emperor himself, the US had a good opportunity to enforce a trend of introspection in Japan. It didn't do so to the point it could have, with the result that Japanese people today have very little idea of events in, say, Nanking.

[Officer of Engineers]

For all we know the British could have threatened their families had they not joined.

Stop right there. Don't go any further. Do not insult these men for what they have done. There are still veterans of that war living. You could go ask them. You will not find any of them who were forced into service.

Failing that, you can goto any Indian Army regiments and take note of when and where these men signed up. These men did not disappeared. Their stories are plain to see and to this day, you will not find one Indian Army Regiment that relied on conscription - ever.

I know it's damned hard to have one of your myths get busted (and all I can say is get used to it, there are more coming) but don't go insulting men who did the right thing by willingly risking their lives to kill two monsters and one of those monsters was breathing down India's neck.

[antimony]

Perhaps, it is time you should learn how your army stopped the Japanese monster from invading India.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/wo...ndia.html?_r=0

Col.,

This is a great story and I will certainly do my best to share it. But the Indian mood about WW2 is summed up here:

But the battle has been largely forgotten in India as an emblem of the country’s colonial past. The Indian troops who fought and died here were subjects of the British Empire. In this remote, northeastern corner of India, more recent battles with a mix of local insurgencies among tribal groups that have long sought autonomy have made remembrances of former glories a luxury.

However, I have low expectations around making this widely known. The rise of nationalism also mean shedding of colonial past (which to me seems like denying our on history), which means that stories like this will get less importance as time wears on.

[Double Edge]

I understand your hatre of the British. Hell, the start of the Quit India Movement should have been a court challenge. Ghandi was jailed for making a speech. That speech was protected under British Indian Law at the time. And within 24 hours, the Gestapo and the KGB would marvel at such efficency.

What amuses me when i hear that sentiment is we give a pass to those before. Mughals, Mongols, Arabs, Huns and last but not least, Macedonians. When aliens take over India next we will give the Brits a pass too. All of this from people who in all likelihood studied in an english medium, come from a country whose legal and govt system inherits from the Brits. Take the major state capitals in the country including the capital, tier-1 cities, all without exception setup by the Brits. Did we reconfigure things after independence ? no, we just changed the names.

Whether people like it or not the world we live in is an order conceived and architected by Brits centuries ago, permeated and defended in the present by Americans and willing others. If one could time travel a Brit from hundred years ago into the present i doubt they would have much trouble to understand the world today. Can't say that of other great powers from that era.

None of this explains why 2.5 million families sent their sons to war. SB's idiotic answer is easily disproven but Antimony's answer also does not explain things. The BIA at the start of the war was only 200,000 strong. 2.3 million men joined because their livelihoods depended on the Raj? This is war. 2.3 million families were risking their bread winners.

But I have a simpler answer other than patriotism. The Japanese pissed off these men. The ferocity between the BIA and IJA was only matched by that between the Soviets and the Nazis. Quaters was neither asked nor given. The BIA did not surrender and did not take prisoners after they learned what happenned to their comrades.

In other words, these men clearly saw the monster they were killing. They may loathe the British but no way in hell were they going to let the Japanese take over.

The ability of the Brits to take over India was down to their freedom to raise standing armies in India over two hundred years before WW1. If they wanted to trade they had to defend themselves in a country of numerous kingdoms. When butterflies in Pensylvania flapped their wings, an earthquake was felt on the other side of the planet. The Brits could not afford to lose India when they had to deal with the French & Spanish. A number of present Indian regiments were founded around that time. The middle east was policed by the BIA in the nineteenth century. Once India was lost British hold over the ME weakened and ended by the early seventies.

These people served as you say to defend their lands against a ruthless enemy but by then had been in uniform for a long time.

If you have another name for the BIA, then I will use it but it's a term everyone recognize but by no means was this a British Army. It was an Indian Army through and through.

yep, no other way for 100k brits to hold on and control a couple of hundred million Indians. By the time ww1 & 2 come up they were ready to serve. And i would imagine would be on the same page as you on this topic. No way would a Brit share a trench with someone of dubious loyalty. This point has been brought up by descendants of veterans of those wars a number of times in the UK.

[Officer of Engineers]

This is a great story and I will certainly do my best to share it. But the Indian mood about WW2 is summed up here:

Your grandfather was in Burma around the same timeframe, right?

Say a prayer of thanks for me the next time you see him.

And share the story with your family. It is your history. I can understand you wanting to forget the BIA but you should never forget your family.

[Double Edge]

Guys, is $30bn (for the sake of rounding the numbers) of FDI really that much for a country like India?

I mean, we could surely enjoy it, but an economy that's close to $2tn? Is it that much?

Is there something more in it?

If we can get the Americans to buy in then others will follow. But to get the Americans to do that will be a tall order. The last time the NDA was in power they built ten powerstations and never got paid. Does not mater whether Enron collapsed. So they will be very circumspect at the prospect of 'infrastructure' investments in India.

Not going to second guess the govt, let's see what they can pull off when they visit the US this month. Obama i expect will be cordial, its the hard boiled business people that have to be convinced. Unless there are watertight understandings that their investments will be secure it won't amount to much. This is purely a commercial affair with no political strings attached. The state of the US economy plays a role too, last time around it was roaring but this time its weaker. So Indian side has to up its game.

What Modi has to achieve is ease of doing business that people take for granted in China. Rule of law is tighter in India but the interference of the govt in the market is always an open question. This is dependent on how strong the govt of the day happens to be. Right now its strong, but things change. The predictability here is uncertain and business people don't like that. Perceived arbitrary decisions taken in the past will count against.

The Japanese went through the same process of War Crimes trials, removal of officials, payment of compensation and limitation on future military activity as the Germans did. Unfortunately it was never within the power of a temporary occupier to compel an entire nation to face its past. That Germany chose to & japan did not has a lot more to do with internal dynamics than external ones.

These people on the right are a natural barrier to the rising spectre of communism in that part of the world ?

And avoiding never ending reparations bills.

[commander]

Stop right there. Don't go any further. Do not insult these men for what they have done. There are still veterans of that war living. You could go ask them. You will not find any of them who were forced into service.

Failing that, you can goto any Indian Army regiments and take note of when and where these men signed up. These men did not disappeared. Their stories are plain to see and to this day, you will not find one Indian Army Regiment that relied on conscription - ever.

I know it's damned hard to have one of your myths get busted (and all I can say is get used to it, there are more coming) but don't go insulting men who did the right thing by willingly risking their lives to kill two monsters and one of those monsters was breathing down India's neck.

I never intended to insult those men.. I was only pointing out the possibilities. I get what they have done to our country and had acknowledged it earlier.

[Doktor]

Can this Government win the next elections? I know it is very hard to predict now, but that is the question. If they are sincere about making India FDI-friendly, the results might come somewhere in the mid of their second mandate. Just a thought.

[commander]

Can this Government win the next elections? I know it is very hard to predict now, but that is the question. If they are sincere about making India FDI-friendly, the results might come somewhere in the mid of their second mandate. Just a thought.

We have had by-elections in a few states couple of days back. Once those results are out we might get an idea. Although Modi in all his speeches had shown confidence he will be here for another term too. So I am gonna guess, Yes the next regime would be NDA as well. FDI is already being approved in a number of big wig sectors like insurance,defence,railways etc and more to follow. The only sector which is still a doubt is the retail for which many Multinational retail chains are waiting to pounce.

[Double Edge]

Can this Government win the next elections? I know it is very hard to predict now, but that is the question. If they are sincere about making India FDI-friendly, the results might come somewhere in the mid of their second mandate. Just a thought.

Can't say. I suspect the mandate they got is a one time shot we won't see again for a while. The question of staying in power is an open one. They could not manage it in 2004. And pro-development govts have had a mixed record in India. Gujarat is the sole exception because of the vibrant business community there and Modi had more freedom and did succeed. Thing is there is this massive yearning to be better from the youth and they are his key constituents, 18-25yr old first time voters. Hope always springs eternal.

I expect it will take at least three years for their labours to bear fruit or this is what the business community in India generally expects.

Right now the opposition is coming from the judiciary, they are charging the govt with interfering with their independence.

Thing is with the last govt the charge was of judicial over reach. The courts were extending themselves and intruding on policy space because the executive was weak. That's not the case now and i think the judiciary resents it. Separation of powers is being rebalanced back.