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Thread: What if we didn't ally with USSR in 1941?

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Hitler only has to hold off long enough that FDR is forced into a Japan first war. Had he played door mouse in the Atlantic for six months the US likely would have been forced to go pacific first with possible disastrous results if we tried to force the Japanese fleet to battle. Plus all the momentum of logistics, his generals getting emotionally invested in a Japan first strategy... With no war in Europe the US would have been sorely tempted to relieve the Philippines or help the British and Dutch more in the East Indies. A six month delay may buy him as much as a year in certain areas like strategic bombers and co-belligerent levels of LL to the Soviets. Even more so if the USN sallies for and gets sunk.
    If FDR wasn't so determined to get into the war in Europe I'd agree Z, but he was. Even if Hitler had continued as before FDR would have stepped up provocations. How many more US ships will need to get sunk before a nation at war with a German ally and fighting along side Britain goes all in? I doubt it would even be 6 months. Meanwhile FDR can keep building up forces, especially Army & Airforce.

    I don't know how 'deep' the US can realistically get into the Pacific, especially with troop numbers. Singapore fell in early Feb and the DEI excepting Irian Jaya was gone a month later. While the emotional pull of trying to reinforce MacArthur would have been strong, that wasn't practical either. I could certainly see US troops ending up in PNG along side Australian troops & with more naval & air backup rather than stopping the Japanese advance in the Solomons & the Coral Sea.

    I don't see any of this committing the US to the extent that it throws off US involvement against Germany enough to change the course of the war significantly. Even if the US suffers a major naval setback in the Pacific I don't see it causing a huge problem in the Atlantic.


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    As I said before, once France fell we were going to war with Germany.

    Inertia was in play.

    After France the isolationists lost almost all of their power.

    If there had not been a for Pearl something would have happened.

    When the USS Reuben James was sunk on 31 OCT 41 the American populace became enraged. Hell, even Woody Guthrie wrote a song about it.

    There was going to be a Lusitania moment...i.e., another US naval vessel would be sunk by a U Boat and that would have been the trigger.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    If FDR wasn't so determined to get into the war in Europe I'd agree Z, but he was. Even if Hitler had continued as before FDR would have stepped up provocations. How many more US ships will need to get sunk before a nation at war with a German ally and fighting along side Britain goes all in? I doubt it would even be 6 months. Meanwhile FDR can keep building up forces, especially Army & Airforce.

    I don't know how 'deep' the US can realistically get into the Pacific, especially with troop numbers. Singapore fell in early Feb and the DEI excepting Irian Jaya was gone a month later. While the emotional pull of trying to reinforce MacArthur would have been strong, that wasn't practical either. I could certainly see US troops ending up in PNG along side Australian troops & with more naval & air backup rather than stopping the Japanese advance in the Solomons & the Coral Sea.
    PH sunk half the American battle line, the other half was in the Atlantic. Without a German declaration of war there is going to be a lot of pressure to mount a relief of the Philipines. Remember, Midway was only a couple days after Corrigedor surrendered.

    I don't see any of this committing the US to the extent that it throws off US involvement against Germany enough to change the course of the war significantly. Even if the US suffers a major naval setback in the Pacific I don't see it causing a huge problem in the Atlantic.
    A major US defeat in the Pacific could seriously imperil the USN's ability to supply NGF. Even a US victory-ish in the Philippines or commitment to PNG would eat up a huge amount of the combat ready US ground forces right as they would be historically used for Torch. More importantly though is a six month pause by the German's a year. That year gives Germany another campaign season where they can rest and rebuild units. The panzers don't get split by Bagartion and Overlord. Soviet causalities climb... Germany still loses but i think the map would be different. No Kalinigrad, no shoving Poland West, democratic governments in at least some Eastern European countries.

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    Soviet causalities climb... Germany still loses but i think the map would be different. No Kalinigrad, no shoving Poland West, democratic governments in at least some Eastern European countries.
    i can see minor changes, but ultimately major changes to the post-war political map would require exceedingly major changes to the military situation, particularly in 1943-- and it'd have to be a situation where the Western Allies had a better strategic situation than the Soviets, too.

    i can see lesser Soviet influence in Central Europe (particularly Hungary) and the Balkans, but not much more than that. Eastern Europe was going to be dominated by the Soviet bear just by proximity issues alone.
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i can see minor changes, but ultimately major changes to the post-war political map would require exceedingly major changes to the military situation, particularly in 1943-- and it'd have to be a situation where the Western Allies had a better strategic situation than the Soviets, too.

    i can see lesser Soviet influence in Central Europe (particularly Hungary) and the Balkans, but not much more than that. Eastern Europe was going to be dominated by the Soviet bear just by proximity issues alone.
    The only thing that might have changed the situation by 1943 other than a delayed US entry into the European would be Germany adopting a war economy with the declaration of war on the US. Jumping the war time footing by 14 months will have an impact against the Soviets and in the air over France and Germany. An extra 2200 or so long barrelled 75mm armed AFV's and thousands more 75mm pak guns is going to wreck Soviet efforts to cut off the 4th Panzer Army and crush Armygroup Mitte. Add 4000 fighters and the RAF has a much harder time in North Africa and the VVS never gets breathing room to regain air supremacy in the East.

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    what i'd be curious about as if Hitler was assassinated, say, January 1943. a German military regime without Naziism means cancellation of the Holocaust before it really got going, and from the military situation that would be a LOT of resources suddenly freed up.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what i'd be curious about as if Hitler was assassinated, say, January 1943. a German military regime without Naziism means cancellation of the Holocaust before it really got going, and from the military situation that would be a LOT of resources suddenly freed up.
    It may free up resources, but they are still short on oil and strategic minerals. Instead of building the V2's to deliver 1 ton of HE which may not be on target and detonates underground or jet engines that use more fuel and strategic metals that last in terms of hours. Trucks and proximity fuzes would have been a better investment. Freeing up the resources doesn't change the scale and resources of the opposition and what they bring to the fight. With Hitler gone sure better outcome before defeat.

    The war wasn't against Hitler but German aggression. Only total surrender and burn war from the German Peoples soul.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what i'd be curious about as if Hitler was assassinated, say, January 1943. a German military regime without Naziism means cancellation of the Holocaust before it really got going, and from the military situation that would be a LOT of resources suddenly freed up.
    It may eat up a lot resources too as civil strife or civil war erupts. There really isn't anyone but the Nazi party to provide political leadership. From local gualeiters to SS divisions and even Luftwaffe field divisions there is a lot of built in resistance. If the German Army is distracted restoring order and putting down Nazi Loyalist, who kicks the Soviets out of Kharkov or defends Sicily?

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    z,

    It may eat up a lot resources too as civil strife or civil war erupts. There really isn't anyone but the Nazi party to provide political leadership. From local gualeiters to SS divisions and even Luftwaffe field divisions there is a lot of built in resistance. If the German Army is distracted restoring order and putting down Nazi Loyalist, who kicks the Soviets out of Kharkov or defends Sicily?
    maybe, but i find it unlikely. Germans especially then just didn't go into the whole civil war thing, they saluted smartly every time they saw an uniform.

    probably some internal bloodletting as the Wehrmacht showed the SS who was boss. Wehrmacht would probably be happy to turn a blind eye to continued atrocities against Jews if that's what it took to keep the SS docile, but nothing like the industrial level slaughter.

    1943 really is the last year for any departure that would result in major changes to the post-war settlement. well, absent an immediate US-Soviet war afterwards...
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,



    maybe, but i find it unlikely. Germans especially then just didn't go into the whole civil war thing, they saluted smartly every time they saw an uniform.
    Street battles of the late 20's and early 30's...

    probably some internal bloodletting as the Wehrmacht showed the SS who was boss. Wehrmacht would probably be happy to turn a blind eye to continued atrocities against Jews if that's what it took to keep the SS docile, but nothing like the industrial level slaughter.
    The combat power of the 1942 SS wasn't the 44 SS by a long shot, but it was even more fanatical.

    1943 really is the last year for any departure that would result in major changes to the post-war settlement. well, absent an immediate US-Soviet war afterwards...
    90% agree. My disagreement is there is a small window in 45 to change who occupies Berlin. If Mainstein's carefully horded armored reserves are not thrown away in the Ardennes they can do a lot of mischief to the Soviets in Poland and Eastern Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    My disagreement is there is a small window in 45 to change who occupies Berlin.
    I don't think so. Eisenhower deliberately avoided the butcher's bill for the city. There was never any race for Berlin. Esienhower just handed it to Stalin while taking the parts that were worth taking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what i'd be curious about as if Hitler was assassinated, say, January 1943. a German military regime without Naziism means cancellation of the Holocaust before it really got going, and from the military situation that would be a LOT of resources suddenly freed up.
    Maybe if there's a false flag, if most of the Nazi leadership can be taken out in one location, that could be alleged to be an "unfortunate" result of a lucky Allied bombing run. If it's just Hitler that gets offed by the military, perhaps Himmler, Goering, etc. are accused of carrying out the assassination, have a show trial and execute them, neutralizing them that way. Otherwise there's too many independent, powerful fiefdoms whose leaders have more obvious "legitimate" claim to succession than a junta of Wehrmacht generals. Himmler controlling the SS, police, and Gestapo, and Goering the Luftwaffe.

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    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    With regards to the OP... I don't think it's plausible for there to be two separate wars at two ends of Europe when there's a common foe in the middle. The Soviets were too goddamned useful to not help them, in absorbing the brunt of the German war effort and turning it back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Yes it was possible and with hindsight may have been a better strategic move. It would have likely meant Soviet exhaustion somewhere in Belarus/Ukraine leaving the US/UK free to defeat Germany and liberate Eastern Europe.
    If the Soviet Union is exhausted in Belarus/Ukraine, historically, that puts us roughly in the Spring of 1943.

    If the US is 6 months to a year behind schedule, Operation Torch hasn't occurred. The Toulon fleet is non-scuttled. The invasions of Sicily and Italy have yet to happen. All of Germany's allies in Europe are still intact. Basically everything's on pause for a year. Not that it matters.

    Now, if Torch and Tunisia happen in 43-44, the Italian campaign in 44-45, and Overlord is pushed back to summer 1945, while the Soviets are still stalemated/exhausted in Ukraine... the US is going to start dropping nukes. Probably one of the major industrial cities on the Ruhr, with a leaflet drop saying Berlin is next.

    I don't think any of the conventional scenarios are going to play out one year belatedly. At this point either the German military carries out a coup and surrenders, or Berlin gets nuked, then the subsequent German military government surrenders, all while the Western Allies are just starting to parade in Paris or sitting pretty in England, and everything from Germany eastward turns into a big chaotic clusterfuck, like what happened after World War I, or the entirety of Japanese-occupied Asia after their historical surrender.

    Quote Originally Posted by MilkToast View Post
    If we had not allied with the USSR, the lend lease program, which supplied large numbers of trucks, tanks, and equipment for the Soviets would not have happened. Russia at the time was a third rate industrial power, and the Germans would likely have taken Moscow in '42, and then pushed Stalin (if he hadn't been captured at Moscow, where he refused to leave) back to the Urals.
    US lend-lease to the Soviets didn't begin (secretly) until September 1941, was officially approved in November 1941, and wasn't much of a factor for most of 1942.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 04 Jan 18, at 11:09.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    If the Soviet Union is exhausted in Belarus/Ukraine, historically, that puts us roughly in the Spring of 1943.

    If the US is 6 months to a year behind schedule, Operation Torch hasn't occurred. The Toulon fleet is non-scuttled. The invasions of Sicily and Italy have yet to happen. All of Germany's allies in Europe are still intact. Basically everything's on pause for a year. Not that it matters.

    Now, if Torch and Tunisia happen in 43-44, the Italian campaign in 44-45, and Overlord is pushed back to summer 1945, while the Soviets are still stalemated/exhausted in Ukraine... the US is going to start dropping nukes. Probably one of the major industrial cities on the Ruhr, with a leaflet drop saying Berlin is next.

    I don't think any of the conventional scenarios are going to play out one year belatedly. At this point either the German military carries out a coup and surrenders, or Berlin gets nuked, then the subsequent German military government surrenders, all while the Western Allies are just starting to parade in Paris or sitting pretty in England, and everything from Germany eastward turns into a big chaotic clusterfuck, like what happened after World War I, or the entirety of Japanese-occupied Asia after their historical surrender.
    US bombing Berlin is a huge technical problem. The German air defenses begin to be emplaced and developed as a result of Bomber Command so a delayed US entry won't lead to a sudden change in how Germany devotes resources. If anything they get more time to emplace more guns. Even if the B-29 can get above the altitude of the 128mm and 150mm ADA guns, we still have to worry about the Me-262 which is quite capable of smoking an isolated B-29.


    US lend-lease to the Soviets didn't begin (secretly) until September 1941, was officially approved in November 1941, and wasn't much of a factor for most of 1942.
    But for the big battles to liberate the USSR of 43 onwards LL is critical. 1/4 of combat aircraft, almost all 4x4 and 4x6 trucks, more than half of the explosives, all of the high octane avgas. The Soviet ability to march west is predicated on the availability of LL.

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