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Thread: What if we didn't ally with USSR in 1941?

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Hitler only has to hold off long enough that FDR is forced into a Japan first war. Had he played door mouse in the Atlantic for six months the US likely would have been forced to go pacific first with possible disastrous results if we tried to force the Japanese fleet to battle. Plus all the momentum of logistics, his generals getting emotionally invested in a Japan first strategy... With no war in Europe the US would have been sorely tempted to relieve the Philippines or help the British and Dutch more in the East Indies. A six month delay may buy him as much as a year in certain areas like strategic bombers and co-belligerent levels of LL to the Soviets. Even more so if the USN sallies for and gets sunk.
    If FDR wasn't so determined to get into the war in Europe I'd agree Z, but he was. Even if Hitler had continued as before FDR would have stepped up provocations. How many more US ships will need to get sunk before a nation at war with a German ally and fighting along side Britain goes all in? I doubt it would even be 6 months. Meanwhile FDR can keep building up forces, especially Army & Airforce.

    I don't know how 'deep' the US can realistically get into the Pacific, especially with troop numbers. Singapore fell in early Feb and the DEI excepting Irian Jaya was gone a month later. While the emotional pull of trying to reinforce MacArthur would have been strong, that wasn't practical either. I could certainly see US troops ending up in PNG along side Australian troops & with more naval & air backup rather than stopping the Japanese advance in the Solomons & the Coral Sea.

    I don't see any of this committing the US to the extent that it throws off US involvement against Germany enough to change the course of the war significantly. Even if the US suffers a major naval setback in the Pacific I don't see it causing a huge problem in the Atlantic.


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  2. #62
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    As I said before, once France fell we were going to war with Germany.

    Inertia was in play.

    After France the isolationists lost almost all of their power.

    If there had not been a for Pearl something would have happened.

    When the USS Reuben James was sunk on 31 OCT 41 the American populace became enraged. Hell, even Woody Guthrie wrote a song about it.

    There was going to be a Lusitania moment...i.e., another US naval vessel would be sunk by a U Boat and that would have been the trigger.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    If FDR wasn't so determined to get into the war in Europe I'd agree Z, but he was. Even if Hitler had continued as before FDR would have stepped up provocations. How many more US ships will need to get sunk before a nation at war with a German ally and fighting along side Britain goes all in? I doubt it would even be 6 months. Meanwhile FDR can keep building up forces, especially Army & Airforce.

    I don't know how 'deep' the US can realistically get into the Pacific, especially with troop numbers. Singapore fell in early Feb and the DEI excepting Irian Jaya was gone a month later. While the emotional pull of trying to reinforce MacArthur would have been strong, that wasn't practical either. I could certainly see US troops ending up in PNG along side Australian troops & with more naval & air backup rather than stopping the Japanese advance in the Solomons & the Coral Sea.
    PH sunk half the American battle line, the other half was in the Atlantic. Without a German declaration of war there is going to be a lot of pressure to mount a relief of the Philipines. Remember, Midway was only a couple days after Corrigedor surrendered.

    I don't see any of this committing the US to the extent that it throws off US involvement against Germany enough to change the course of the war significantly. Even if the US suffers a major naval setback in the Pacific I don't see it causing a huge problem in the Atlantic.
    A major US defeat in the Pacific could seriously imperil the USN's ability to supply NGF. Even a US victory-ish in the Philippines or commitment to PNG would eat up a huge amount of the combat ready US ground forces right as they would be historically used for Torch. More importantly though is a six month pause by the German's a year. That year gives Germany another campaign season where they can rest and rebuild units. The panzers don't get split by Bagartion and Overlord. Soviet causalities climb... Germany still loses but i think the map would be different. No Kalinigrad, no shoving Poland West, democratic governments in at least some Eastern European countries.

  4. #64
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    Soviet causalities climb... Germany still loses but i think the map would be different. No Kalinigrad, no shoving Poland West, democratic governments in at least some Eastern European countries.
    i can see minor changes, but ultimately major changes to the post-war political map would require exceedingly major changes to the military situation, particularly in 1943-- and it'd have to be a situation where the Western Allies had a better strategic situation than the Soviets, too.

    i can see lesser Soviet influence in Central Europe (particularly Hungary) and the Balkans, but not much more than that. Eastern Europe was going to be dominated by the Soviet bear just by proximity issues alone.
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