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Thread: What if we didn't ally with USSR in 1941?

  1. #16
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    probably 1945 vice 1944, i think. given the japanese defense system where you had to dig them out of islands to get closer to the mainland, numbers had limited utility.

    As my other posts said....the conditions for a succesful invasion fo the Home ISlands were not met until the Japanese merchant fleet was destroyed whcih choked off the ability to produce sufficient arms and equipment. Unlike Germany they did not have the means to synthesize oil from coal.

    And one other point....don't forget part of the reason for the dates for the Home Island invasions was so sufficient fissile materiels could be developed to have sufficient bombs to use in the prep bombardment...and I think I just wet myself with fear just thinking about what utter devestation that would have meant.
    “We had been hopelessly labouring to plough waste lands; to make nationality grow in a place full of the certainty of God… Among the tribes our creed could be only like the desert grass – a beautiful swift seeming of spring; which, after a day’s heat, fell dusty.”
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    z, tbmfan,

    I'm not sure Japan would not have come hat in hand to the Allies anyway within just a few weeks of the A-Bomb/ Soviet Invasion. The Submarine offensive and mining operations created a very real promise of mass famine.
    the militarists didn't really care about that. they KNEW an invasion was coming and they hoped to inflict enough casualties in the next 3 months for the US to accept a negotiated Japanese surrender.

    and if they didn't get that, they were talking about the "glorious sacrifice of 100 million".

    the a-bombs got enough of the pragmatists to weigh in for surrender because they didn't know just how many bombs the americans had. they were afraid that they'd get wiped out with no chance for fighting back.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    AR,

    As my other posts said....the conditions for a succesful invasion fo the Home ISlands were not met until the Japanese merchant fleet was destroyed whcih choked off the ability to produce sufficient arms and equipment. Unlike Germany they did not have the means to synthesize oil from coal.
    yeah, the japanese were massively transferring troops/arms/equipment from their mainland empire and the Kwantung Army back to the homeland for the expected invasion.

    after the war, Army planners were shocked at how much the japanese had stockpiled up. IIRC they underestimated the number of kamikaze planes by a factor of 10.

    the japanese were just concerned about fighting one massive battle and the future would have to take care of itself.

    And one other point....don't forget part of the reason for the dates for the Home Island invasions was so sufficient fissile materiels could be developed to have sufficient bombs to use in the prep bombardment...and I think I just wet myself with fear just thinking about what utter devestation that would have meant.
    especially considering that very few people had any idea about the medium/long-term effects of radiation. that'd be a LOT of sick GIs later on. absolutely horrifying.

    and IIRC the japanese were prepping chem and biological agents as well.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z, tbmfan,



    the militarists didn't really care about that. they KNEW an invasion was coming and they hoped to inflict enough casualties in the next 3 months for the US to accept a negotiated Japanese surrender.

    and if they didn't get that, they were talking about the "glorious sacrifice of 100 million".

    the a-bombs got enough of the pragmatists to weigh in for surrender because they didn't know just how many bombs the americans had. they were afraid that they'd get wiped out with no chance for fighting back.
    Starvation has the same result but more Japanese dead, by the time the US was close enough to realize invasion plans the IJN was dead and gone. There was nothing Japan could do if the US just sat back and starved her into submission. If you read the Strategic Bombing survey it shows japan was looking for an out in May 45. In June the Emperor took a direct hand. Polls of the population also show the will to resist was broken by August with 68% of the Japanese population feeling the war was unwinnable.
    Last edited by zraver; 21 Jun 14, at 03:17.

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    z,

    there was nothing Japan could do if the US just sat back and starved her into submission.
    that was the USN viewpoint. Army argued that it would take too long. ultimately allied high planners decided to go with an invasion because they didn't feel that the US home populace could take another year or so of war, and they didn't want the Soviets to grab the Japanese pie that the US had been baking for years.

    If you read the Strategic Bombing survey it shows japan was looking for an out in May 45.
    more accurately, certain portions of the japanese command, largely the IJN, was looking for an out with conditions, mainly that the Emperor stay on.

    the IJA was looking for a lot more conditions than just that; they wanted to make sure there was no allied occupation, that they would conduct any war crime trials if necessary, etc.

    In June the Emperor took a direct hand.
    the Emperor only took a hand after the second bombing and the reports of the Soviet invasion filtered through. even then it was a close run thing; IJA fanatics tried to assassinate the peace faction, and tried to organize the war faction into defying the Emperor. they wanted to put the Emperor into house arrest and then destroy the recording of the surrender proclamation that the Emperor made.

    Polls of the population also show the will to resist was broken by August with 68% of the Japanese population feeling the war was unwinnable.
    imperial japan wasn't a democracy. they were handing out spears to the housewives and telling them that the Americans would rape and kill them all if they got ashore. look at what happened on okinawa.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,

    that was the USN viewpoint. Army argued that it would take too long. ultimately allied high planners decided to go with an invasion because they didn't feel that the US home populace could take another year or so of war, and they didn't want the Soviets to grab the Japanese pie that the US had been baking for years.
    Which we invited them to do at Potsdam...

    more accurately, certain portions of the japanese command, largely the IJN, was looking for an out with conditions, mainly that the Emperor stay on.

    the IJA was looking for a lot more conditions than just that; they wanted to make sure there was no allied occupation, that they would conduct any war crime trials if necessary, etc.
    They still wanted out, in the end the IJN/Peace Party got what they wanted.

    the Emperor only took a hand after the second bombing and the reports of the Soviet invasion filtered through.
    That is not what the survey states.

    even then it was a close run thing; IJA fanatics tried to assassinate the peace faction, and tried to organize the war faction into defying the Emperor. they wanted to put the Emperor into house arrest and then destroy the recording of the surrender proclamation that the Emperor made.
    Close but failed, no reason to suspect a different out come for that faction if its millions dying for lack of food- dies the fire style. Mass famine causes social and political breakdown

    imperial japan wasn't a democracy. they were handing out spears to the housewives and telling them that the Americans would rape and kill them all if they got ashore. look at what happened on okinawa.
    First, mass famine trumps social conditioning. Second, Okinawa was not subjected to the type of sustained operations to gut cities than the Home Islands suffered, was much more food self sufficient and had a much higher military to civilian ratio.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,
    that was the USN viewpoint. Army argued that it would take too long. ultimately allied high planners decided to go with an invasion because they didn't feel that the US home populace could take another year or so of war, and they didn't want the Soviets to grab the Japanese pie that the US had been baking for years.

    In the end no doubt waiting a year or two off the islands to starve them to death was a little too long. Let's get it over with and let's make sure the Russians don't take what they want as we sit around. Now if the Japanese had not surrendered after the two A-bombs then what? Did we have more in the making? If not then invasion or now starve them to death. I would have to guess that the American populace was more sick and tired of the mounting death toll then the actual time needed if they were asked to rate the two. With what 500,000 American casualties how would the American populace taken that? You are right about the weapons hidden around as my father, who landed in Yokohama as part of a security detail for General Eichelberger I believe he said, saw the hidden small subs and numerous hidden planes and took pictures of them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    In the end no doubt waiting a year or two off the islands to starve them to death was a little too long. Let's get it over with and let's make sure the Russians don't take what they want as we sit around. Now if the Japanese had not surrendered after the two A-bombs then what? Did we have more in the making?
    Yes. Operation Olympic referred to by previous posts are just such an event for which additional A-bombs would be used. George Marshal was not convinced that A-bombs alone would do the job and oversaw the planning for Operation Olympic, an amphibious assault on Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan. The plan was to concentrate the firepower of five atomic bombs in one drop on the landing beaches as a substitute for pre-assault bombardment.
    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    In the end no doubt waiting a year or two off the islands to starve them to death was a little too long. Let's get it over with and let's make sure the Russians don't take what they want as we sit around. Now if the Japanese had not surrendered after the two A-bombs then what? Did we have more in the making? If not then invasion or now starve them to death. I would have to guess that the American populace was more sick and tired of the mounting death toll then the actual time needed if they were asked to rate the two. With what 500,000 American casualties how would the American populace taken that? You are right about the weapons hidden around as my father, who landed in Yokohama as part of a security detail for General Eichelberger I believe he said, saw the hidden small subs and numerous hidden planes and took pictures of them.
    In hindsight, Potsdam was a mistake. But minus Potsdam, starvation would have forced Japan out of the war by the end of 1945 any way. We had sunk 90% of their merchant fleet, the civil population was on starvation rations, there was no fuel, the cities were burned out, the Emperor, peace party, navy and people wanted out.

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    z,

    But minus Potsdam, starvation would have forced Japan out of the war by the end of 1945 any way.
    that's what the Strategic Bombing Survey states, yeah. but again, that's hindsight speaking. Navy at the time thought the process would take anywhere from 12-24 months, which would have been unacceptable to the US public. the US strategy in late '44 and early '45 was predicated upon an invasion, not a blockade, which is part of the reason why the US went to okinawa and the philippines instead of taiwan/china.

    the US had little idea about just how close japan was to collapse, which is why the war planners correctly assumed the worst case scenario, based off the okinawa example. operation downfall, after all, was set from oct 1945 (operation olympic) to march 1946 (operation coronet). war planners thought each stage would take approximately 90 days. they planned the use of 5-15 (!!) atomic bombs.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,
    war planners thought each stage would take approximately 90 days. they planned the use of 5-15 (!!) atomic bombs.
    With that we may still have had unbelievable casualties just that many would have been years later from radiation induced cancers.

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    That way, maybe we would have had a cure for cancer by now.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    z,



    that's what the Strategic Bombing Survey states, yeah. but again, that's hindsight speaking.
    Like I said with the benefit of hindsight.

    Navy at the time thought the process would take anywhere from 12-24 months, which would have been unacceptable to the US public.
    Not so sure I buy that, we lasted through Vietnam and GWOT... I think a plain statement that we were going to starve them out before an invasion would have been acceptable. There still would have been a lot of freed up production for consumer goods regardless.

    the US strategy in late '44 and early '45 was predicated upon an invasion, not a blockade, which is part of the reason why the US went to okinawa and the philippines instead of taiwan/china.
    We had to go back to the Philippines, it was a matter of national honor. Plus control of the Philippines helped our choking off of imports from the Dutch East Indies and would aid any assault on China if we had gone that route.

    the US had little idea about just how close japan was to collapse, which is why the war planners correctly assumed the worst case scenario, based off the okinawa example. operation downfall, after all, was set from oct 1945 (operation olympic) to march 1946 (operation coronet). war planners thought each stage would take approximately 90 days. they planned the use of 5-15 (!!) atomic bombs.
    Would we have that many bombs available?

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    With hindsight I believe that Operation Olympic would have bene relatively trouble free. Bar the odd skirmish, Japan would collapse as fast as the US could get ashore and take ground.

    Even without dropping the a-bomb Japan's defenses were dwindling to pitiful levels whilst the forces pursuing them were growing ever stronger. April saw the Yamato sink to the bottom and with it the symbolic hope of any chance of resistance. Come the end of October '45, and the worry of typhoons eased, the US Navy would have turned Japan into hell on earth by itself. But then you had the US airforce coming to the party as well.

    I would imagine a round the clock Naval presents, within visual range of the coast, attacking whatever looked good with both naval artillery and aircraft. Constantly. In 1946, with unhindered buildup from 1944, I'm frothing at the mouth imagining the conventional destructive power the US armed forces could bring to the table. They could thoroughly support it logistically aswell.

    The planned kamikaze defenses would flop and any forces that managed to get airborne would be pounced on by a huge US fighter force hungry for targets. With better aircraft, pilots and a huge numerical advantage what Japanese aircraft is going to be able to do anything at the start of 1946 other than provide the US with some targets?

    The Japanese are tough but no human could be exposed to what was coming Japan's way and still be expected to mount an organised resistance. Sure there'd be a few Japanese military units that would put up a fight, but any concentration of Japanese force would attract a staggering amount of explosives.

    It is quite amazing, to me, at what the US Navy had grown to in 1945. What amazes me more is that it could have been bigger still, with experience and across the board arms superiority. Japan didn't stand a chance.

    All with 20/20 hindsight of course.

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    In essence Truman made a big favor to more people on both sides then he have ordered to be killed with the 2 bombs.

    What if the bombs were dropped later, after USSR got the tech?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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