Islamist Militants Take Mosul

[zraver]

I kind of agree.

So become buddies with the Iranians?

If we can do business with China with its 170,000 American dead and wounded and thousands held captive we can do business with Iran. Even hard line Shia are a lot more moderate than even moderate Sunnis Arabs.

[Minskaya]

According to an Arabic speaking friend, the depicted executions took place in Tikrit.

After heavy fighting, the northwestern city of Tal Afar has fallen to ISIS. Most of the residents there are ethnic Turkomen.

[citanon]

If Iraq breaks up into rump states Iran's strategic goals of the Shatt al-Arab marshes, Al Faw Peninsula, iraq's off shore loading facility, Basra and Baghdad and of course the oil most of which is in Shia or Kurd areas. A Sunni rump state isn't desirable for Iran, but it is something Iran can tolerate if it gets the meat off the bone. Plus a prolonged fight in Iraq saps the ISIS in Syria making Assad's battles easier and forces Iraq's Shia into ever heavier reliance on Iran.

Here's the thing, I don't think that is necessarily an intolerable situation for the Us if we play our cards right and can continue the current rapprochement with Iran. We need the Sunni jihadist bled out just as much as they do. We've been in bed with the Sunni's for decades and it hasn't worked out for us, they don't even deliver cheap oil anymore.

Here's the other thing though: a Shia rump state doesn't need Iran's help to remain a Shia rump state.

A Sunni rump state isn't desirable for Iran unless it creates trouble for Saudi Arabia as a radical camp of Sunni extremists, which is exactly what it's looking like.

So tell me this, why do we need these guys again? Just so that they can get the "meat off the bone" in exchange for nothing back to us?

And Shia Iraq needs Iran to hold off ISIS? Really?

Again I ask, why do we need them?

[citanon]

an independent Kurdistan within the month?

No. Just a prosperous US protectorate as they've been since the 90s.

[Triple C]

Here's the other thing though: a Shia rump state doesn't need Iran's help to remain a Shia rump state.

A Sunni rump state isn't desirable for Iran unless it creates trouble for Saudi Arabia as a radical camp of Sunni extremists, which is exactly what it's looking like.

But it gives ISIS something to do other than killing Iranians?

Also, some are predicting a very long and bloody civil war.

[citanon]

But it gives ISIS something to do other than killing Iranians?

Also, some are predicting a very long and bloody civil war.

The point I'm trying to make is that Iran will be involved but not to our benefit. Iran has shown itself to be keen to preserve its own forces while seeking to engage in such conflicts through proxies that it can support at minimal cost to herself. This support creates proxies that undermine the indigenous government's authority while extending Iran's influence. Thus the actual benefits to the host country are minimal. The real benefit is to Iran itself.

In this case, ISIS will not be killing Iranians. It will be killing Iraqi fools who believe wrongly that Iran is their savior or their strength.

[Mihais]

And you should watch and learn from their grand strategy.It has ups and downs,but it's a masterpiece.
As for your benefit,you should start to re-evaluate what is it.If you wanted to prevent a Shia state controlling the energy reserves of the ME,you're a bit behind the events.
If you want to have plenty of dead scumbags,you need to sit back and sip some whiskey.
If you want to support the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs,you're idiots.
If you want the world market to enjoy stable energy supplies at stable prices,talk to the Persians.

[Bigfella]

The point I'm trying to make is that Iran will be involved but not to our benefit. Iran has shown itself to be keen to preserve its own forces while seeking to engage in such conflicts through proxies that it can support at minimal cost to herself. This support creates proxies that undermine the indigenous government's authority while extending Iran's influence. Thus the actual benefits to the host country are minimal. The real benefit is to Iran itself.

In this case, ISIS will not be killing Iranians. It will be killing Iraqi fools who believe wrongly that Iran is their savior or their strength.

On this occasion, however, that might just be to our benefit.

[gf0012-aust]

someone needs to actually overlay a map of the countries in the ME with a sectarian map to assist with the debate

it will provide some extra perspective into what the broader cluster-f is that is looming on the horizon.

the traditional country borders and boundaries become a tad meaningless

[Doktor]

You mean something like this?

[gf0012-aust]

ah Dok, to use a much cliched term - you're the man :)

[Doktor]

ah Dok, to use a much cliched term - you're the man :)

Praise google. I had it in hand googling something else about wtf is going on there.

If you open it in another tab, you can zoom a bit more.

[gf0012-aust]

If you open it in another tab, you can zoom a bit more.

already done that :)

[zraver]

Here's the other thing though: a Shia rump state doesn't need Iran's help to remain a Shia rump state.

A Sunni rump state isn't desirable for Iran unless it creates trouble for Saudi Arabia as a radical camp of Sunni extremists, which is exactly what it's looking like.

So tell me this, why do we need these guys again? Just so that they can get the "meat off the bone" in exchange for nothing back to us?

And Shia Iraq needs Iran to hold off ISIS? Really?

Again I ask, why do we need them?

I didn't say we needed them, I said we could live with the result, Iran is not going to embargo the oil. Her social welfare programs are expensive and she needs to get oil to market. But raproachment with Iran has all sorts of benefits for us. There is a reason we propped up the Shah in his dreams of regional hegemony. Those reasons still exist

[citanon]

And you should watch and learn from their grand strategy.It has ups and downs,but it's a masterpiece.

Only in comparison to no strategy at all....

If you wanted to prevent a Shia state controlling the energy reserves of the ME,you're a bit behind the events.

Except Saudi Arabia controls the oil reserves.

If you want to have plenty of dead scumbags,you need to sit back and sip some whiskey.

Dead scumbags and dead innocents, all at the same time. No thanks, no whiskey for me.

If you want to support the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs,you're idiots.

Except propping them up has faithfully served our economic interests for the last 50 years.

If you want the world market to enjoy stable energy supplies at stable prices,talk to the Persians.

No actually, we talked to the Canadians, the South Americans, rural folks up on North Dakota, and the Saudis.