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Thread: EEU = Soviet Lite

  1. #406
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    Wargaming a Muscovite attack in the north; it starts in Belarus: http://belarusdigest.com/story/belar...U1OkRE.twitter

  2. #407
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    Live feed of demonstrations in Muscovy today:



    Cities where demonstrations are going on;

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    Upto 400 (including Navalny) reported arrested in Moscow. Some of the arrests;

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  3. #408
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    Another new 'ceasefire' came into effect on the Donbass front yesterday. Results attacks fell by approx 1/3 in the last 24hrs (down from over 90 in the previous 24hrs).

  4. #409
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    A report by the European Council on Foreign Relations into Russian Based Organised Crime and it's state links and uses (pdf); http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR208_-_...N_EUROPE02.pdf

  5. #410
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    Sorry for not buying Soros-funded orgs.

    While there are truths in their reports, they are so distorted and more often than not, they do not reflect the reality. At least in my personal experience.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  6. #411
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    I have nothing against Soros and while I rarely agree with Mark Galeotti it is a start on some academic research of this complicated area. Sure there have been investigations in lots of countries (Spain most notably) but no examination of the subject as joined up whole phenomenon so to that extent it is a welcome start.

  7. #412
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    Vaguely interesting report on individual (and collective) EU countries attitudes to Muscovy; Long version (pdf) here; http://www.europeanvalues.net/wp-con...aggression.pdf
    Synopsis here; http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...-study-reveals

  8. #413
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    According to a Levada poll last month (Muscovite version here; http://www.levada.ru/2017/05/02/elek...-v-prezidenty/) just 48% of Muscovites would vote for Putin as President. Meduza (English) report here; https://meduza.io/en/news/2017/05/02...re-next-sunday

  9. #414
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    Another bit of attempted theft of history/disinformation yesterday as when Putin was in France he apparently said "the enlightened French public knows about the Russian Anna, queen of France, the younger daughter of our Grand Prince Yaroslav the Wise who was the wife of Henry I and who made a significant contribution to the development of France being one of the founders of a minimum of two European dynasties." Well ok except that this 'Anna' was born in Kyiv in the early 11th Century and was the daughter of Yaroslav the Wise, Grand Prince of Kyiv and his Swedish Wife Ingegerd Olofsdotter of Sweden. Anna did marry Henry l of France and was regent for a while when her husband died leaving her with the eight year future Philip l. She never visited or heard of Moscow or Muscovy for the simple reason that it did not exist.

  10. #415
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    Since the modern Russians - along with Ukrainians and Belarussians - all claim the Kievan Rus' as cultural ancestors that's historically a very iffy thing. Given the historic genesis of the Grand Duchy of Moscow - through Vladimir-Suzdal - the claim isn't something that people can just deny either.

  11. #416
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    The first Grand Duke of Moscow was Daniel (1261 – 4 March 1303) aprox 150yrs after Anna of Kyiv married Henry l of France. It would be a bit like the US claiming that because Mary Stuart (daughter of James ll) married William of Orange a Yank married into the Royal Dutch house since they are derived from the English colonies. At least Mary had probably heard of America and the colonies as they existed in her lifetime unlike Moscow in Anna's time.

  12. #417
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    So a judgement - on some of the issues at dispute - between Naftogaz (Ukraine) and Gazprom (Putin mafia kleptocracy) has been passed and it is a mega win for Ukraine reversing much of the harm Yulia Tymoshenko did in her infamous 2009 deal and her later maneuvering to become a "Gas Princess". The dispute actually started in 2008 the basics of which you can get from here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_R...ne_gas_dispute . The Tymoshenko deal - for which it is alleged she received substantial remuneration to accept (thus her later imprisonment - the charges were right but the motive entirely unrelated to the charges) was as bad a deal as could be imagined. Ukraine had to pay 450 dollars per 1000 cubic meters of Russian gas. In 2009, it was the highest price among all the consumers in Europe. Moreover, Ukraine was obliged to buy 52 billion cubic meters of gas regardless of the consumption. Just to put this into context last year Ukraine consumed 11bn cubic meters of gas and none supplied directly by the Muscovite front company. Additionally to having to buy 52 billion cubic meters (over ten years) during this there was a no sell on clause - Ukraine was obliged to buy the gas but Moscow retained some inherent right in it such that it could not be sold on. Under a "take-or-pay" provision even if Ukraine did not want or intend to use this gas it had to pay. Additionally the transport tariffs (for gas through Ukraine) were set much lower than the market price - the market price at time being around $3 per 100 km transit of 1000 cubic meters of gas the deal was $1.7 per 100 km transit of 1000 cubic meters of gas. The deal was as bent on Tymoshenko's part as it got and entirely contrary to Ukrainian interests. The EU, which has got involved after gas supply had been cut entirely (through Ukraine) to Bulgaria etc smiled on it and hailed Yulia. She was bought and they almost certainly knew - I know people who said they told them at the time - but "business as usual" returned at Ukraine's expense. In a way it was one of the many causes of the 2014 and subsequent affairs.

    So needless to say Ukraine (Naftogaz) actually did not need the amount of gas and (after 2014) refused to pay the stipulated amounts it was supposed to buy but not sell on. Gazprom therefore claimed $47.1bn for the non supplied gas in 2014 while Naftogaz argued that the take or pay deal was biased and counterclaimed on the transit costs, removal of the no sell on and so on. This resulted in the cutting of gas supply briefly in 2014 - though the gas transit continued. It was agree then pay first (though that later changed) while these past claims and counterclaims went to the Stockholm Court of Arbitration. One of the first actions of then interim Ukrainian Government was clear the Board of Naftogaz and it has subsequently performed admirably in my view. "The tribunal rules Naftogaz Ukraine is entitled to a market-reflective adjustment of the price formula" and dismisses the Gazprom claim for $47bn on the 'take or pay' deal in part of it's report. It's a long document apparently (790 pages) and I dare say both sides are trying to make sense of it still the first reports of this ruling but this potentially sets a strong precedent.

  13. #418
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    Visa free travel from Ukraine and the European Shengen area came into force this morning at midnight.

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    ... after the EU on German and French insistence changed the rules so that visa-free travel can be suspended immediately with any partner country if there's e.g. "a large amount of unfounded asylum requests" or an increased number of people violating the 3-month visa-free rule. The first in particular will be very relevant with Ukraine since Germany just deported about 7,000 Ukrainians for precisely that reason last year (those 5% that we've accepted as refugees were mostly anti-Ukrainian-government).

  15. #420
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    ... after the EU on German and French insistence changed the rules so that visa-free travel can be suspended immediately with any partner country if there's e.g. "a large amount of unfounded asylum requests"
    I do not think you will have many of them. You are free to criticise the Government, it's Ministers or sometimes innane policies - or the President without fear of any future reprisal in Ukraine, as indeed I have done at times both on this forum and to colleagues, friends and family here. In a long journey of many people, institutions and organisations some parts are from time bound to go off course I suppose.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    or an increased number of people violating the 3-month visa-free rule.
    That is only just and fair as it in accordance with the agreement.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    (those 5% that we've accepted as refugees were mostly anti-Ukrainian-government).
    How accomodating of you to give shelter to fugitives of justice. There are others elsewhere of course - Firtash in Vienna, others in London but by and large only the rich can afford to flee for the purposes of escaping justice. One may perhaps question your sheltering of refugees of justice in regard to the German desire to force others to accept Muslim 'refugees'.

    Nor honestly do many Ukrainians speak German (outside the small native community of Ukrainians who have German ancestry). Most are likely to head to - and some 1m already are in - Poland as the languages are more similar and because of the growing 'partnership' between Warsawa and Kyiv. Naturally the ethnic Hungarians in the Carpathian area and the ethnic Romanians may wish to visit their co linguists or even family across the border but I never found that a problem myself before - even before this. I have happily and without any interference - not a customs officers or border post or fence in sight - crossed into Romania from Zakarpattia (TransCarpathian) oblast and back. Didn't see any bears either though apparently there are some in that area.

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