Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

[cdude]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uH2GmWt04hk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbBWP8qd32E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aF9-WlXPKg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVcUN0lMWMU (same of 3rd with a more proper version)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM5E7C_jctM (a longer footage from a good position for a clear view of the sky, however not a lot of details regarding the attack)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-zLdH6OCfM (someone combined the two related-seeming-to-be footage)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY-F6BLOmEE (Some after-the-attack footage - NSFW!!!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpeMmg6ZNAM (some weird footage - dunno even if this one is legit, lulz)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYOIufxpZ5I (A greatly detailed footage of the area after the attack, CAN SOMEONE TRANSLATE WHAT HE SAYS MUCH PLOX ??)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3wBXkR0rJ0 (the area after the attack, thx to supremecommand for providing this)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kFeoCEG17c (SLOW-MOTIONED DETAILS OF ATTACK! I personally find it very useful, dunno u guys tho. It is a german edit btw. He claims that "Clustermunition" has been used in this attack. Ifaik it must be illegal to use in the first place. Edit: Cluster munition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia AS CAN BE SEEN UKRAINE DID NOT ACCEPT THE TREATIES ABOUT THE USE OF THE WEAPON! THEREFORE IT SHOULD NOT BE FORBIDDEN FOR THEM TO USE THAT SPECIFIC KIND OF WEAPON, IF NECESSARY, AT LEAST BY LAWS.)
Disclaimer: I am not russian or ukranian, just posting this as I see this issue as an important stuff.
Disclaimer2: The source is "voice of russia" so even tho the story may be correct, some bias should I believe be expected.
TO UKRAINIANS: I find it bloody weird that only a few recordings can be found on internet. If any ukrainian is around it would be great for them to highlight this subject out. Is the city called "Lugansk" a small city? Has the attack been done in a early/late time? I mean.. you hear a fighter rolling up on your city... There should be more recordings as it is not possibly sth common to happen, right ?
Edits: Added more footage n some notes.

EDIT: FYI, I just copy & paste the whole reddit post from the following link ( I was NOT the OP): SouIHunter comments on One killed, ten wounded after Ukrainian Air Force attack Lugansk administration building

[MrSecond]

Mr. Second. If hundreds of secession obsessed ethnic Tatars attacked a large airport in Tatarstan, would you suggest that the Russian military return to their respective bases to "stop the bloodshed"?

It started long before the airport. Before the airport hundreds of people have been killed.

And by the way, your use of the term "junta", if widely misleading before, is wholly anachronistic now. Poroshenko won the election by a landslide in a free and fair election in the entirety of Ukraine

Should I post here the videos of beaten candidates of this "free and fair" election again? :)

Want the bloodshed to stop? Then your brethren, your countrymen need to cease streaming across the porous border armed with their RPGs, machine guns and sniper rifles. Isn't it slightly relevant that, of the 50 dead who attacked Donestsk airport a few days ago, 30 were Russian, and a large proportion of those citizens of Russia?

I told you and all people here. This is single social cultural system. Any war in Ukraine would cause the activity of volunteers in Russia. Because they are the same people. But the source of conflict was and is in Kiev. Kiev created this war. All what they have to do - if they really want to stop the war - is to stop their troops.

[cdude]

Another country on its way to FUBAR

All thanks Obama who didn't stop Asad, now everybody is launching rockets to urban centers!

Wait, it's the anti pro-russian government doing the deeds? CNN/Foxnews/NYTIMES will not report.

[Mihais]

Mr S,I disagree a bit.He may seem a wild cossack ataman,but he's right being so,because he has little choice left,from his pov.We can all agree that the Ukrainian state is sh!t.Incidentally we can understand them,because both our countries have sh!tty states,just less so than Ukraine.But he speaks of an informal network,of people from all walks of life that work that have to deal with the others,idle,lazy,stupid,cowards,unprofessional or those that turned their backs towards the Ukrainian state and joined yours.Within this informal network they try to do whatever they can to advance their cause.
What I found funny is that this guy grew as a Soviet patriot(he said that in another interview on their FB page) but now opposes a Russia he sees as fascist and militant Christian.And yes,he's Russian himself.

Hell with fun,you Russians are getting a third civil war in less than 100 years.Confusion as this is the very essence of such a tragedy.

[MrSecond]

CAN SOMEONE TRANSLATE WHAT HE SAYS MUCH PLOX ??)

The cameraman is moving around and he describes what he sees. He makes videos of funnels of rockets or bombs in the ground.

Actually, there were a lot of witnesses who saw the aircraft and the expolosion.

[MrSecond]

Wait, it's the anti pro-russian government doing the deeds? CNN/Foxnews/NYTIMES will not report.

Yanukovich, who for two months hold unarmed policemen in Maidan against mad "peaceful protesters" with Molotov cocktails and clubs - dictator, tyrant, the worst ever.

Poroshenko, who drops bombs into the center of a big city and kills accidental women - democratic leader, recognized by all civilized nations.

That's the reality we have to deal with.

[omon]

Yanukovich, who for two months hold unarmed policemen in Maidan against mad "peaceful protesters" with Molotov cocktails and clubs - dictator, tyrant, the worst ever.

Poroshenko, who drops bombs into the center of a big city and kills accidental women - democratic leader, recognized by all civilized nations.

That's the reality we have to deal with.

yep, kadirov who killed his first russian at 16, and many more after, is given a medal "hero of russia" , yep realty sux

[cdude]

Yanukovich, who for two months hold unarmed policemen in Maidan against mad "peaceful protesters" with Molotov cocktails and clubs - dictator, tyrant, the worst ever.

Poroshenko, who drops bombs into the center of a big city and kills accidental women - democratic leader, recognized by all civilized nations.

That's the reality we have to deal with.

I know. And most of the Wabbers know.

But you've been here long enough to understand that human beings can selectively choose to enhance parts of their memory to maximize their gains and improve their standings. And to make sure other people do the same, propaganda was invented.

We are all brainwashed by various propaganda systems.

Fortunately I have been through two.

[MrSecond]

I don't want to swear at you, omon.
Keeping that way of uniting Ukraine - does it work? Be honest with yourself. Does it work?

[cdude]

I don't want to swear at you, omon.
Keeping that way of uniting Ukraine - does it work? Be honest with yourself. Does it work?

Dude, very few people cares about Ukraine, united or not. The whole deal is to make Russia bleed and look dangerous/bad.

There are some true haters of Russia (Victoria Nuland and her friends, and most of the Poles I ever met). And there is this military-industrial complex that made banks during the cold war.

Unfortunately, we've got a bunch of both living on WAB.

[MrSecond]

Dude, very few people cares about Ukraine, united or not.

Omon is Ukrainian. He cares.

As for the rest - I agree.

[snapper]

I thought our military wabbits might appreciate a brief military analysis of the Ukrainian Maidan 'revolution' and later ongoing events which will end as soon as the border can be sealed. I am NOT a military type, not my business normally, though as an amateur historian of military (and other) history I understand the Napoleonic, Clauswitzian, Guderian 'Blitzkriek' concepts etc and more recent refinements of them, successful and not. This is my amateur view.

From the start in Ukraine Yanukovych got fixated about a peaceful demonstration in a public square; the occupation of open space or a specific building and the importance of it has been constantly over estimated by first the Yanukovych Government and later the GRU sponsored separatists and their Spetznaz, Russian Cossack and Chechen 'plausibly deniable' helpers who have been infiltrated since the Crimean 'anschluss'.

For Yanukovych the mistake was the January 16th 'anti protest' laws which ludicrously criminalised traffic jams among other things. This was a political mistake; it was no longer about the EU agreement or not but about liberty and an end to the corruption as clearly he has no intention of leaving office. His second mistake was to repeal most of these laws on 28th Jan - by which time he had lost most of western Ukraine. Then instead of trying to re-assert control in western Ukraine he became fixated on who stood where in Kyiv, the protestors in Maidan. Western and central Ukrainian volunteer 'Self Defence' groups quickly formed, almost no violence occured in the 'liberations' of towns and villages and while the Yanukovych regime fixated on occupied buildings and squares in Kyiv the city itself was being effectively cut off. During the lull between Jan 28th and Feb 18th 90% of the Presidentially appointed Governors of the regions had either resigned or were covertly cooperating with the Opposition to isolate Kyiv - Donetsk and Kharkiv were the exceptions. By the time Yanukovych, in desperation, launched an assault on what he considered strategically important buildings and Maidan on 18th Feb the battle was already effectively lost. Food prices had risen 15% in Kyiv because the supply and ability to reinforce - to manoeuvre - was entirely in opposition hands. People were standing on train lines because they were tipped off that Yanukovych supporters were on the train, it was a dead end game. Even if he had won back all the occupied buildings and public squares in Kyiv it was a no win position without Russian columns bursting through the eastern frontier, but they were then preparing the Crimean anschluss to safeguard the fleet. In this they were too slow.

The Crimean phase during which the interim Government did nothing has been criticised by many and perhaps rightly. It could be argued that a robust defence of Crimea would have deterred the sort of 'plausibly deniable' intervention we now see in Donbass. Normally this might be true but given the run down state of the Ukrainian military and the clear willingness to provoke a larger conflict shown by Russia that would have allowed a larger invasion which Ukraine was in no way able to then resist at the end of February - start of March, the correct judgement in my view was taken not to contest the putsch but to seek international recognition and get sh*t sorted and prepared for more. The creation of the National Guard to incorporate as many of the 'Self Defence' groups as possible and establish a unified command and coordination for them was one example; other defencive precautions were also taken that I won't go into in public but no doubt will spring to mind. You have to understand that there was a real understanding and fear that Ukraine might be invaded en masse up until around mid March, even now the possibility remains.

So how would an invasion go? The Russians had three alternatives; roll the lot up back to the Polish border, go for 'Novorossyia' Kharkiv - Dniepropetrovsk - Odessa line (illustrated here http://euobserver.com/media/src/3019...f9391f405a.jpg) or thirdly to link the Dniepr with the Dniester along the line Chernihiv - Kyiv - Vinnytsia - Soroca. The Ukrainian authorities expected the third alternative should a full assault come on the basis that they would then need a swift end to the war to avoid the economic sanctions backlash, therefore Kyiv etc would be traded back on condition of recognition of the borders and end to sanctions etc; grab a bit more than you really want to get a peace deal. The end result would be along the option 2 'Novorossyia' line. This presupposed that Ukrainian army would be defeated or not fight - which may have been the case back in February/March. It was entirely feasible and do-able but they took their time in Crimea and Ukraine prepared plans to thwart such a strategy and re-organise it's armed forces, train the National Guard and continue other defencive measures, diplomatic and otherwise.

I always agreed with the Canadian Officer here that the Russian troop build up was a bluff; if they had gone in they needed quick settlement and peace or sanctions and mounting resistance and counter attacks would cripple them; their lines of supply wouldn't make it through winter nor their economy through next year; Ukraine itself can turn off 50% of the Russian gas supply to Europe if necessary. They could have gone in at the end of February or early March feasibly but once the interim Government gained international recognition and IMF/EU loans the dice were financially loaded.

So they took the 'destabilisation' option in Donbass firstly as an attempt to undermine the Presidential election, secondly because they hoped they might achieve another 'Crimean solution' where Ukraine would offer no defence and thirdly to give a possible pretext for more overt intervention. Well from my amateur military point of view occupying a building or a town don't mean sh*t if you can't can't supply the food or ammunition required to sustain it. Again the same mistakes of fixation on static objectives that Yanukovych made. It is akin to a child throwing a tantrum and insulting his or her parents before locking themselves in their bedroom. The interim Government was naturally anxious to avoid to loss of civilian life as this might provide a pretext for overt Russian intervention so the answer was to lock the childs door until he/she learn manners. Ukraine controls lines of supply over 95% of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts - except in the towns. Come out when you're hungry; you will be forgiven if you are Ukrainian. The only remaining supply control issue remains the somewhat porous border and it is for this reason that recently and in the near future attention will turn primarily to there.

All in all then the military issues have been primarily control of lines of supply and to retain the ability to manoeuvre whilst denying them first to the Yanukovych regime and second to the GRU sponsored squads in the east. Effectively sealing the border remains the last objective in supply line control/tactical and strategic manoeuvre - ability puzzle that started with the effective encirclement of Kyiv in February. It is Napoleon before his Russian adventure, rather than US WW2 'go for the heart' post Clauswitzian theory, strategic rather than tactical, grand theory as opposed to winning battles, British as opposed to US WW2 strategy. Ukraine cannot do "Stormin' Norman" Schwarzkopf. They do however play chess well and have effectively won this battle with the help of the sanctions threat. Make no mistake though; this was close, there was a real possiblity of full on engagement and Ukraine couldn't long term have won in that event. The same though is true for Russia; they could not have won long term. Thus it didn't happen. In card terms Ukraine has played a mediocre hand well, Putin missed his chance to 'ace' the hand he needed and all along they misunderstood the real imperitaves and became fixated with possession of buildings/squares of no strategic significance.

[Mihais]

The cameraman is moving around and he describes what he sees. He makes videos of funnels of rockets or bombs in the ground.

Actually, there were a lot of witnesses who saw the aircraft and the expolosion.

This is no aircraft munition.

[Officer of Engineers]

Looks like a car bomb more than anything else. I cannot see an incoming projectile even on slowmo

[Goatboy]

I see a couple bright flashes behind the standalone tree to the immediate left of the flagpole (0:18), sort of like it's daisy chained to the main explosion?