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Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Here's my eval. For the first time, we have seen professional Ukrainian Officer involvement. At the battalion level, the Ukrainians knew exactly what they're up against and how to counter it, Spetznez or no Spetzenez. The Russians are unwilling to re-enforce the militias. There is no AAA nor any artillery support.
    An opinion on why now a competent officer came in charge?

    The Ukrainians have seen Putin's bluff and now calling him on it.
    I'd say they saw an opportunity now and snatched it. The bottom line is the same, the militias lost the support from Mother Russia.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Doktor View Post
      The bottom line is the same, the militias lost the support from Mother Russia.
      amen to that
      Linkeden:
      http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
      http://cofda.wordpress.com/

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      • #63
        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        An opinion on why now a competent officer came in charge?
        Natural selection,which happens very fast in war.
        Those who know don't speak
        He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Mihais View Post
          Natural selection,which happens very fast in war.
          I think having free hands makes part of the equation as well.
          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

          Comment


          • #65
            ....


            Separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine shot down a military helicopter Thursday, killing 14 troops including an army general, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov told a session of parliament.

            “I just received information that near Slavyansk, the terrorists — using a Russian man-portable air defense system — shot down our helicopter,” Turchynov said. “Fourteen of our servicemen died, including General Volodymyr Kulchytskiy.”


            Ukraine separatists shoot down army helicopter, killing 14 | The Times of Israel

            RIP ..



            Ukraine Reporter ‏@StateOfUkraine 8m

            #Donetsk, #Ukraine, pro-Russian battalion "Vostok" has installed antiaircraft gun in front of State administration. pic.twitter.com/pRDtZpdIi0


            may be that Mi8 shot downed by the AAA
            sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

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            • #66
              Originally posted by MrSecond View Post
              Special for Mihais - Strelkov's interview with English subs.
              Spasiba. As with anything in war,one is wise if he believes a quarter of what's said and smart if he knows which quarter.I believe him when he says he'll defend Slavyansk,raid from there and that UA arty and armor don't value too much in the city.I believe him when he complains about the keyboard patriots.I think he doubles the actual number of volunteers and exaggerates the Ukr. propaganda as a very convenient excuse.It's hard in our overly cynical countries to raise enthusiasm.

              If Russia were to act as liberator,it had a million pretexts.Yet it didn't.So far:
              1.You can't let Ukraine go.
              2.You can't fight an actual war
              3.You didn't sent more volunteers and Spetsnaz a month or two ago.Transnistria was a more impressive show of force on your part,with more men and weapons.Your boys are now reduced to a valiant defense.Maybe a larger Russian force could have taken Odessa.
              4.Ukr. army did not disintegrate.Their NG is getting better by the day.

              We have a stalemate.

              Anyway,as lessons learned we have a gem of 21st century warfare.We've been reminded what a small force of dedicated men can achieve in the midst of an apathethic population.We'll see many such wars in Europe in the coming decades.
              Those who know don't speak
              He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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              • #67
                What FUBAR situation.
                Those who know don't speak
                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                  part of the view re facilities at kerch is driven by a number of other factors - there is a shift towards LNG powered short haul carriers in europe. the russians are looking at developing LNG powered vessels for their own commercial reqs and see that as this is "on the cusp" tech that they have an opportunity to take a leading role. It also creates a new market opportunity and thus a new demand over and above currently shipping and propulsion tech, albeit very inefficient in comparison, as it is restricted to large displacement vessels.

                  the russians have some massive force structure changes occurring 2016-2017, so what may seem illogical or irrational to external observers is quite logical to them - more to the point, they don't care if others get their future long term plans

                  the messy conflicts with russia start to appear 2018-2020 IMO. By 2025-2030 they will have the most powerful and capable expeditionary naval forces in the artic - and to build the support platforms for those artic fleets will require yards with prev experience and capability.

                  whats less well known is that russian yards have been employing freelance skandinavian maritime engineers and project managers to help fix their build culture.

                  the russians have a long view and I'd suggest that to achieve those goals means that what I've proffered up prev is part of the long term game plan to achieve both geostrat and military aspirations
                  hi,
                  Russia's Arctic Strategies and the Future of the Far North: Marlene Laruelle: 9780765635013: Amazon.com: Books

                  this might be interesting for you, of course if you haven´t already read it yet. not a rosy picture for russias arctic ambitions

                  also, loaded with estonian perspective, but still on the theme
                  http://www.diplomaatia.ee/en/article...ab-raha-poleb/
                  Last edited by BD1; 29 May 14,, 22:39.
                  If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

                  Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

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                  • #69
                    BD1, haven't read it but on a superficial read it seems to be sympathetic to and support all my other sources.

                    nice to see it all gathered together in one reference loc though.

                    some reality checks need to be delivered to the backsides of a few politicians - they need to stretch out their reading and research options. or at least start getting staff who know where to start looking . considering the fact that they can request briefings on "sensitive" issues also shows how many have been asleep at the wheel.

                    i generally try to avoid commenting on the ability and effectiveness of other countries foreign policy and strategic analysis, but State Dept stands out in my mind as an outfit that has been negligent in articulating the long term view of where various regions are heading.

                    sticking your head in the sand doesn't make things go away.
                    Linkeden:
                    http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
                    http://cofda.wordpress.com/

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                      i generally try to avoid commenting on the ability and effectiveness of other countries foreign policy and strategic analysis, but State Dept stands out in my mind as an outfit that has been negligent in articulating the long term view of where various regions are heading.

                      sticking your head in the sand doesn't make things go away.

                      My impression is just the opposite, although US policy seems overly taken by environmental concerns, no doubt a bone for the US environmental lobby. I wouldn't presume to know what the US State Dept really focuses on at the desk level, but I doubt it has its head in the sand as to Russia artic intentions.
                      To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                        My impression is just the opposite, although US policy seems overly taken by environmental concerns, no doubt a bone for the US environmental lobby. I wouldn't presume to know what the US State Dept really focuses on at the desk level, but I doubt it has its head in the sand as to Russia artic intentions.
                        cref my prev on commenting - but gawd I hope so. the Nasr view has some currency in the PACRIM
                        Linkeden:
                        http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
                        http://cofda.wordpress.com/

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                        • #72
                          Russia has reiterated calls for Ukraine to stop its military campaign against the pro-Moscow rebels and "start a real national dialogue".

                          The Russian foreign ministry also urged the United States and European Union "to use all their influence on Kiev to stop Ukraine's slide into national catastrophe".


                          BBC News - Ukraine army helicopter shot down near Sloviansk, 12 dead


                          This constant, self-serving bellyaching out of Moscow is getting nauseous.

                          When the hell is Russia going to get around to using its influence to get the separatists to stop?

                          And order its gun-toting citizens to come home?
                          To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                            When the hell is Russia going to get around to using its influence to get the separatists to stop?
                            And order its gun-toting citizens to come home?
                            You're saying that Moscow genuinely gives a shit about its people?
                            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                            • #74
                              for those who have subscription access.

                              the May 5 edition of DefenseNews has an interesting interview with the Polish DefMin
                              Linkeden:
                              http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
                              http://cofda.wordpress.com/

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                You're saying that Moscow genuinely gives a shit about its people?

                                Moscow may not care but it has to pretend to care for the home crowd. I just find it ironic that Moscow incessantly calls on the Ukrainian gov't to stop something they didn't start and not say shit to the ones who did.
                                To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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