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Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

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  • #46
    Excellent series of posts from gf_0012 and Snapper. No reason self-preservation and brief windows of strategic imperatives can't segue-way as subsets to an overarching goal. Russian people better wake up while they still can.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
      GF, naval architecture is much more in your realm than mine but....

      It is my understanding thatthe ability to make smaller vessels (DDG, CG, AUX, etc) does not automatically mean the skill sets exist to build larger and more complex vessels (LNG carriers, LPH/LPD, CVN, etc).

      Am I off base?
      no, you're right, but the russians believe that the icebreaker building capability is a transferable step. the sth koreans, chinese have also shown that modern build methods can mitigate against it - but the russian yards are not paragons of modernity - even their nuke sub yards would struggle to get certified against a euro large vessel yard - esp cruiseliner yards in germany.

      but, they have a different build philosophy as well, so it becomes a moot point...
      Linkeden:
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      • #48
        Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
        no, you're right, but the russians believe that the icebreaker building capability is a transferable step. the sth koreans, chinese have also shown that modern build methods can mitigate against it - but the russian yards are not paragons of modernity - even their nuke sub yards would struggle to get certified against a euro large vessel yard - esp cruiseliner yards in germany.

        but, they have a different build philosophy as well, so it becomes a moot point...
        Could those same "flexible" standards cause issues with vessels not allowed into restricted waters or ports due to perceived environmental risks? Could impact the value of said production.
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
          How much does Kerch depend upon Ukrainian machinery (they could try and go for Chinese systems like integrated electric propulsion, but I wouldn't want to be within ten light years of that systems integration headache),
          they're not dependant at all. bear in mind that the russians have forced companies to work together in the past (a RusGov mandated version of what the USN achieved under the BMP Prog) - so they could direct United Ship Co to assist Zalyv
          Linkeden:
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          • #50
            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
            Could those same "flexible" standards cause issues with vessels not allowed into restricted waters or ports due to perceived environmental risks? Could impact the value of said production.
            if they're not compliant under current intl codes that could be the case - but also remember that they are also shifting to commercial rather than naval build standards (eg Mistrals) so may do some yard remediation etc - or as i stated prev, direct companies such as USC to assist
            Linkeden:
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            • #51
              Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
              Zalyv Shipyard in Kerch. The Russians have identified it as a new major yard for future large LNG ship production

              its prev built guided missile destroyers, guided missile cruisers and a nuclear ice breaker
              gf,

              How many LNG tankers are they going build in a port that need vast investment already in two to five years before the European game starts running out due to alternative supply? Nor are the LNG tankers so required as they were now that the Siberian Power deal is done (for less than $350 per thousand cubic metres I am informed). Crimea and Kerch shipyard would need enormous funding and redevelopment (re AR's questions) for this to proceed and where is the terminal? Certainly not constructed in Crimea which currently receives it's 95% of it's gas via Ukraine. I can't see it myself, the outlay would be too great and the reward at best hopeful; back to the Caucuses choke and ensure a Syrian Assad win to block the Qatari pipeline will be next in my view, not throwing their ill gotten gains at future LNG transport for which they have as yet no terminal. The only ongoing LNG project Russia has is the Yamal terminal in the Arctic. I am not an expert in LNG tech or tanker building but the European window will have closed by the time all the necessary work is done. The Chinese deal which requires a $70bn (and read more as no Russian state project is independently audited) investment makes it pointless and too far. We do know that some contruction is ongoing in Kerch but not on the scale nor the facilities that would lead to your conclusions. With respect I think you are barking up the wrong tree over there; South Stream is far more important to them European-wise. It is worth noting that Poland wants the next energy Commissar post in the new EU Commission.

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              • #52
                Day 3 after election. Usual day in Slavyansk. Trolleybus under mortar shelling.

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                • #53
                  Special for Mihais - Strelkov's interview with English subs.

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by MrSecond View Post
                    Special for Mihais - Strelkov's interview with English subs.


                    What is this? Dueling propaganda?

                    Try this one on for size. It suits my perspective, but I have no idea if it is true, just as you have no idea if the stuff you post is true.

                    JV Koshiw
                    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                    • #55
                      It's a direct speech from one of the main actors of the situation. I believe it may be intersting from all points of views. You can decide on your own what is it - whether it propaganda or anything else.

                      I've heard many times allegations in respect of Strelkov about murder of Rybak, but there are still no any proofs, no any effective investigation - nobody knows who killed him. Meanwhile this guy JV Koshiw tell about that like about confirmed fact. He just say: "Evidence shows that Girkin and his appointed mayor of Slovyansk was directly involved in the killing of Rybak". Which evedence? What it shows? What kind of involvement? It's not clear. And the author do not explain and do not give any explaining details.

                      JV also says: "The absence of independent monitors will help President Putin to cover up Russia’s covert actions in Eastern Ukraine". But excuse me, when and where the OSCE was able to cover up anybodies covert actions? Do they actually have any instruments to cover up secret services' actions (let's assume these actions have taken place). Sounds like complete BS.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by snapper View Post
                        gf,

                        How many LNG tankers are they going build in a port that need vast investment already in two to five years before the European game starts running out due to alternative supply? Nor are the LNG tankers so required as they were now that the Siberian Power deal is done (for less than $350 per thousand cubic metres I am informed). Crimea and Kerch shipyard would need enormous funding and redevelopment (re AR's questions) for this to proceed and where is the terminal? Certainly not constructed in Crimea which currently receives it's 95% of it's gas via Ukraine. I can't see it myself, the outlay would be too great and the reward at best hopeful; back to the Caucuses choke and ensure a Syrian Assad win to block the Qatari pipeline will be next in my view, not throwing their ill gotten gains at future LNG transport for which they have as yet no terminal. The only ongoing LNG project Russia has is the Yamal terminal in the Arctic. I am not an expert in LNG tech or tanker building but the European window will have closed by the time all the necessary work is done. The Chinese deal which requires a $70bn (and read more as no Russian state project is independently audited) investment makes it pointless and too far. We do know that some contruction is ongoing in Kerch but not on the scale nor the facilities that would lead to your conclusions. With respect I think you are barking up the wrong tree over there; South Stream is far more important to them European-wise. It is worth noting that Poland wants the next energy Commissar post in the new EU Commission.
                        part of the view re facilities at kerch is driven by a number of other factors - there is a shift towards LNG powered short haul carriers in europe. the russians are looking at developing LNG powered vessels for their own commercial reqs and see that as this is "on the cusp" tech that they have an opportunity to take a leading role. It also creates a new market opportunity and thus a new demand over and above currently shipping and propulsion tech, albeit very inefficient in comparison, as it is restricted to large displacement vessels.

                        the russians have some massive force structure changes occurring 2016-2017, so what may seem illogical or irrational to external observers is quite logical to them - more to the point, they don't care if others get their future long term plans

                        the messy conflicts with russia start to appear 2018-2020 IMO. By 2025-2030 they will have the most powerful and capable expeditionary naval forces in the artic - and to build the support platforms for those artic fleets will require yards with prev experience and capability.

                        whats less well known is that russian yards have been employing freelance skandinavian maritime engineers and project managers to help fix their build culture.

                        the russians have a long view and I'd suggest that to achieve those goals means that what I've proffered up prev is part of the long term game plan to achieve both geostrat and military aspirations
                        Last edited by gf0012-aust; 29 May 14,, 00:28.
                        Linkeden:
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                        • #57
                          second:

                          Strelkov, or whatever his name is, exudes competence. He seems to at times to be open and frank. At other times, he's just doing his job, which is to justify his actions. I take it all with a grain of salt, but to be honest I give somewhat more credence to media reports coming from non-government controlled news outlets. That is not to say that everything reported by Russia-controlled media is inaccurate, but it can be and has been used to spin whatever line suits Moscow's purposes.
                          To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                          • #58
                            .

                            From EuromaidanPR tweet

                            sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                              second:

                              Strelkov, or whatever his name is, exudes competence. He seems to at times to be open and frank. At other times, he's just doing his job, which is to justify his actions. I take it all with a grain of salt, but to be honest I give somewhat more credence to media reports coming from non-government controlled news outlets. That is not to say that everything reported by Russia-controlled media is inaccurate, but it can be and has been used to spin whatever line suits Moscow's purposes.
                              He seems to look down to his left whenever he is, shall we say, more creative, with describing the situation? Also, the movement in his chest whilst describing his military situation seems to indicate some consternation. He seems most earnest in describing what he needs in terms of equipment and supplies.

                              Seems like a quiet and competent professional who is under some strain and not used to (and not liking) telling BS stories to the press.
                              Last edited by citanon; 29 May 14,, 05:07.

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                              • #60
                                Here's my eval. For the first time, we have seen professional Ukrainian Officer involvement. At the battalion level, the Ukrainians knew exactly what they're up against and how to counter it, Spetznez or no Spetzenez. The Russians are unwilling to re-enforce the militias. There is no AAA nor any artillery support.

                                The Ukrainians have seen Putin's bluff and now calling him on it.

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