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Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

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  • #31
    Chechen volunteers in Donetsk

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    • #32
      Originally posted by MrSecond View Post
      Seems, something wrong with western logic...
      Yeah, that's right. It's "western logic" that's the problem here.
      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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      • #33
        Logic certainly is.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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        • #34
          chechyans + crimean tartars who feel displaced.......

          there's a magical recipe for putin within the next 5 years.....
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          • #35
            Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
            chechyans + crimean tartars who feel displaced.......

            there's a magical recipe for putin within the next 5 years.....
            Maybe,but the likelihood is low.Chechnya has Kadyrov in power and the alternative was extermination.The Tatars don't have the advantages of the Chechens.They have a quarter of their numbers,they live surrounded by Slavic population,they don't have nearby muslims,they don't have sympathetic neighbours,they don't have a nearby safe haven,they don't have the Caucasus and their supply lines from the major terrorist sponsors are maritime,not land based.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Mihais View Post
              Maybe,but the likelihood is low.Chechnya has Kadyrov in power and the alternative was extermination.The Tatars don't have the advantages of the Chechens.They have a quarter of their numbers,they live surrounded by Slavic population,they don't have nearby muslims,they don't have sympathetic neighbours,they don't have a nearby safe haven,they don't have the Caucasus and their supply lines from the major terrorist sponsors are maritime,not land based.
              the issue is about idealogical opportunity - islamic radicals won't see this in terms of topography, it will be about cause.

              the chechyan issue hasn't gone away - and this just provides another opportunity in the making. any "slavic" response just adds grist to the mill
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              • #37
                Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                the issue is about idealogical opportunity - islamic radicals won't see this in terms of topography, it will be about cause.

                the chechyan issue hasn't gone away - and this just provides another opportunity in the making. any "slavic" response just adds grist to the mill
                Any ''slavic'' response(which is the only sane sort of response,anyway) just adds efficiency in dealing with muslims.I agree the trusty sons of Allah will spout and blather,but the possibility of them doing anything more than a few suicide attacks is low.They are reduced to that by the Russians.
                I'd see any western support for such crap as counterproductive.The Russians are opponents in a limited conflict for influence in Eastern Europe and allies in the war against the islamists.If this has an air of the cabinet wars of the 18th century,its good.
                Those who know don't speak
                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                  Any ''slavic'' response(which is the only sane sort of response,anyway) just adds efficiency in dealing with muslims.I agree the trusty sons of Allah will spout and blather,but the possibility of them doing anything more than a few suicide attacks is low.They are reduced to that by the Russians.
                  I'd see any western support for such crap as counterproductive.The Russians are opponents in a limited conflict for influence in Eastern Europe and allies in the war against the islamists.If this has an air of the cabinet wars of the 18th century,its good.
                  the phony war is basically over, any chechyans in the mix will make the russians even more committed to backing assad

                  donetsk is a new and separate stage. to all intents and purposes I think the russians are more than willing to come to an accommodation with the new ukrainian leadership.

                  i reiterate my view that this was always about dealing with a geostrategic rump and very little to do with protecting the diaspora. that was just for local consumption and putins image management.
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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                    the phony war is basically over, any chechyans in the mix will make the russians even more committed to backing assad

                    donetsk is a new and separate stage. to all intents and purposes I think the russians are more than willing to come to an accommodation with the new ukrainian leadership.

                    i reiterate my view that this was always about dealing with a geostrategic rump and very little to do with protecting the diaspora. that was just for local consumption and putins image management.

                    gf0012-aust,

                    I agree regarding Putin's alleged concern for Russian speakers; nothing but an excuse but I do not 'buy into' your prime importance of Crimea ideas. In reality neither the interim Government nor any new Government such as we have now (Yats is to remain as Prime Minister by the way) was ever going to question the Sevastopol lease; it was always safe if Ukraine kept Crimea and offered perfect leverage against any future Ukrainian attempt to join NATO... "Hold on you can't! Our base" etc.. By seizing Crimea is such an illegal manner that no future Ukrainian Government will ever accept the fait accomplis he has not only committed himself to large scale financial support and an even larger defencive force to protect his 'gain' but actually called into question in future precisely that which he was so anxious to keep; a guarantee on Sevastopol. If the security of the Sevastopol base were Russia's real motivation the Crimean 'anschluss' was in long term antithetical to that interest.

                    The assessment that I have been working on is rather simpler; it's essentially all about retaining power at home for Putin and new Oligargich aristocracy; they will only 'adventure' (that is take a risk) where a win is certain or by proxy to interfere in alternative gas supplies for Europe (Syria). The Caucuses are far more important in this regard than Ukraine but the real threat of the Ukrainian Maidan 'revolution' was that it would spread to Russia and endanger the FSB regime. Nor can the regime be seen to lose so something had to be done and Crimea was easiest. The almost hysterical vitriol about 'Nazis' and all the rest was just another part of shoring up opinion against the reformist movement in Ukraine and with the 'victory' of Crimea in their pockets and destabilized eastern Ukraine they now feel safe enough. They also have trouble elsewhere;

                    Demonstrators storm president's HQ in Abkhazia

                    Dozens of demonstrators stormed the presidential headquarters in Georgia's Russian-backed breakaway province of Abkhazia on Tuesday after a protest against alleged corruption and misrule, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

                    Demonstrators storm president's HQ in Abkhazia | Reuters

                    Presumably the Abkhazian are also 'Nazis' etc... This was the real danger of Maidan that they feared. They have claimed a 'victory' for Crimea, though long term it actually makes Sevastopol less secure and will require large financial investment and permanent deployment, destabilised eastern Ukraine to create a 'buffer zone' which can only continue so long and now the dreaded disease has broken out somewhere else. It's not about some grand geo strategic neo Soviet plot, that's just words to make the Russian people docile to their re-enslavement; "I'll make you great again if you just accept your chains", which doesn't mean that given the opportunity of another guaranteed win they will not take it again, but it essential that their retain power in Russia and for this they cannot be seen to lose. The full Ukrainian invasion was always far too risky after the end of February/start of March. In short the rulers of Russia are not analysts as you are; you are assigning them your own, no doubt excellent attributes. They are self concerned criminal oligarchs backed by a criminalised security service. I agree with your conclusions but on different grounds.

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                    • #40
                      snapper, the reason why i put weight on the geostrategic rump is that all the warning signs have been building for the last 2 years and volubly supported by the estonians/latvians that a push was going to happen on crimea, and fundamentally to support geostrat planning in the nth and nth west.

                      putin had basically 2years leverage on gas supply, so if he was going to use that card to declaw a euro response, then taking crimea (shipbuilding yards, large tanker build potential, unfettered access etc...) had to be from now to 2016. as much as he has a deal with china, they also have other options come 2016.

                      i've no doubt that the game plan is a more complex combination of strategic vectors, and that conclusions like yours and mine are but a subset....
                      Last edited by gf0012-aust; 28 May 14,, 17:30.
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                      • #41
                        You guys think NATO will ever allow new members with Russian troops in them and border disputes?
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                          You guys think NATO will ever allow new members with Russian troops in them and border disputes?
                          I think Ukrainian NATO membership is more likely now than before but we never intended that Ukraine should join NATO; if they still had Crimea with the Russian base there it would have been impossible.

                          gf... ship building in Crimea? They are closing Feodosia and Yevpatoria ports. Ports of Feodisia and Yevpatoria will be closed, Vice PM of Crimea says - Russia - News

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by snapper View Post

                            gf... ship building in Crimea? They are closing Feodosia and Yevpatoria ports. Ports of Feodisia and Yevpatoria will be closed, Vice PM of Crimea says - Russia - News
                            Zalyv Shipyard in Kerch. The Russians have identified it as a new major yard for future large LNG ship production

                            its prev built guided missile destroyers, guided missile cruisers and a nuclear ice breaker
                            Last edited by gf0012-aust; 28 May 14,, 11:27.
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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                              Zalyv Shipyard in Kerch. The Russians have identified it as a new major yard for future large LNG ship production

                              its prev built guided missile destroyers, guided missile cruisers and a nuclear ice breaker
                              How much does Kerch depend upon Ukrainian machinery (they could try and go for Chinese systems like integrated electric propulsion, but I wouldn't want to be within ten light years of that systems integration headache),

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                                Zalyv Shipyard in Kerch. The Russians have identified it as a new major yard for future large LNG ship production

                                its prev built guided missile destroyers, guided missile cruisers and a nuclear ice breaker
                                GF, naval architecture is much more in your realm than mine but....

                                It is my understanding thatthe ability to make smaller vessels (DDG, CG, AUX, etc) does not automatically mean the skill sets exist to build larger and more complex vessels (LNG carriers, LPH/LPD, CVN, etc).

                                Am I off base?
                                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                                Mark Twain

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