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Thread: Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

  1. #2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Would have to be a REFORPOL or REFORBAL nowadays.
    Your beer is better.
    Chimo

  2. #2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Short translation on OOE is there is no such thing as a conventional icbm. Even if there are some, the moment they launch, well we can start our last dinner.
    The more I think about this. The more ludicrous it is. New START gives the Russians the right to verify that all MINUTEMAN III ICBMS are exactly where they are and what they are, ie they have 1 warhead instead of 3. So, even before all of this, to replace that one warhead with a conventional payload, they have to notify the Russians or be in treaty violation, ie hiding a warhead.

    Right off the bat. Yes, notify the Russians that I'm going to attack you with an ICBM which makes the strike nothing more than a propganda stunt that the Russians will conviently ignore. Whoopee doo. You just wasted 7 million dollars delivering 3 500lb bombs and since MINUTEMAN IIIs are not made since 1978, you just lost one delivery vehicle you can't replace.

    Ok, don't tell the Russians. Launch on warning is still a myth but once that rocket lands, all bets are off. Yeah, it's a conventional warhead but for all the Russians know, it may be a dud nuke and they ain't going to give you a second chance to launch unchallenged.

    So start a nuclear war for no freaking reason.
    Chimo

  3. #2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I strongly doubt that any Russian Regimental Colonel has been trained to recognize a nuke strike. We haven't for over 20 years.
    *raises hand slowly*

    (wait, you were talking about staff officers. okay, that's fair then.)

  4. #2014
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    I stand corrected.
    Chimo

  5. #2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Minnie,

    I generally concur with you regarding Ukrainian vulnerability to a double envelopment. Not sure I understand your contention that one of the wings would come out of Crimea, however. Wouldn't that be required to pass through Perekop where any attack not amphibious would be channelized? Neither the Germans nor the Soviets found entry to Crimea very easy from that direction. I can't imagine exiting though the same gate any easier if facing prepared defenses.
    Russia now has at least 25,000 military personal in Crimea including numerous specialized units attached to the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine has around 35,000 soldiers in total.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Brings me to the next (and larger) point. You're probably correct because prepared defenses there (or elsewhere along your border) are non-existent. So too the troops to man them and the mobile forces to back them. It's been, IMV, all your army could do to muster the forces necessary to fight an ATO that's expanded in tempo and ferocity even as the area seized by rebels has diminished.
    We haven't had a capable military in decades. Corruption and complacency... no one imagined a deadly threat originating on our eastern border. Ukraine was a participating state of the CIS until March of 2014.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Russia probably can adversely impact that fight by demonstrating along the flanks. Unless the Ukrainian army possesses coherent reserves able to counter those threats, forces presently engaged in ATO ops must be ready to dis-engage to the extent necessary for meeting a threat from the flanks or retreating beyond that encirclement.
    A large proportion of the ATO consists of volunteers. Poroshenko has recently ordered conscription for all military age males.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Unless, of course, Goering promises to keep them re-supplied from the air. Wouldn't trust that one.
    Russian MANPADS and SAMS have already taken a toll on An-26 cargo aircraft.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    All this ultimately points to questioning the Ukraine's ability to sustain this expanding war. If prosecuting the ATO to conclusion requires everything, including trained (or untrained) replacements for engaged units suffering from growing casualty lists, it becomes immensely difficult resourcing the security threat along presently quiet sectors of your mutual border.
    The Ukraine/Russia border is 1,500 miles. There are no current technical or manpower means to patrol/seal such an extensive and porous border.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    The Ukrainian Army had best possess active plans to fight unconventionally any Russian invasion in the east. It will be impossible to stop any concerted Russian invasion short of the Dnieper but their rear areas can be made absolutely unbearable, especially with winter approaching. I have zero solutions for your eastern populace under such circumstances. A people adversely occupied by the Russians in the midst of a winter war would be hell. Eighteen to twenty year old Russian soldiers will likely not behave under those conditions with attenuated discretion for innocents.
    If Russia enters Ukraine in force, it will ultimately lead to partisan warfare. Many nationalities would be involved. There are already many neighbor volunteers in the ATO forces.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Even a massive infusion of monies and material won't immediately transform the size and dispositions of your immediately available or projectable forces over the near term. Of course, that "massive infusion" has yet to materialize nor visible on the immediate horizon.
    We are acutely aware of the situation.

    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    I'm very worried. I know you are too.
    Putin is an ex Soviet KGB officer ruling Russia in the modern era. Unpredictable. He has not been shy about using the military to achieve political/security goals.

  6. #2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    Don't be absurd. The point was to set back the Russian threat. Have you got a better idea? We need some creative thought here. Not negativity. Think outside the box. If you can't think of anything then perhaps we should congratulate Obama for a job well done since no-one can think of anything better to do. He must be doing as well as can be expected. It's not his fault if the houses have tied his hands. What is he supposed to do? Sanctions are all he is allowed. Whose fault is that? Putin is obviously being much more creative. By the time sanctions really hurt Putin will own the Donbas. Unless of course you know of some miracle turnaround that I have overlooked...
    I am a lot of things...sarcastic (like in my post), a smart ass, knowledgable, an historian of some minor note and a pretty good logistician.

    But absurd ain't one of them.

    Learn the capabilities of weapon systems before proposing them.

    Here's a pro tip.....

    Neither Minutemen or Tridents have operational conventional warheads....nuke and inert ONLY....and they are ALL MIRVs.

    And if any missile left an SSBN or a silo unexpectedly WILL result in an immediate launch in Russia...at us AND China. And they WILL be nukes. And then we will follow the same. All before anything we sent hit.

    So we either shoot some nukes or big effing darts....but no conventional warheads.

    Fellow professionals have already mentioned other options.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  7. #2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    Well at least I take time to read your posts and I would have thought you would do me the courtesy to read mine in its entirety. I said conventional warhead. I said nothing about nuclear. In fact your the one suggesting
    " Surface the entire SSBN fleet off both of Russia's coast. A flight of B-52s rushing their borders and challenging their air defences. A REFORGER exercise even at the division level. Putin wants a return to the Cold War. Fine. Let's show them who's ready to play because I can guarrantee you it ain't the Russians." In fact you are the one bringing us to the brink of a nuclear war in a stupid game of chicken threatening an attack on their homeland playing armchair general. I was suggesting a sting operation on a small worthless peace of Ukraine soil. Guess who's laughing now. Now talk yourself out of this.
    You are making a goose of yourself & talking big to some people who actually know about this stuff (not so much me, but I know when to keep my yap shut). You've backed yourself into a rather odd argumentative corner. Now would be a good time to quietly withdraw for a while.


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  8. #2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    Russia now has at least 25,000 military personal in Crimea including numerous specialized units attached to the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine has around 35,000 soldiers in total.
    That maybe but they ain't ready. Open source intel suggests only 3 regiments are ready and we have been watching. The Americans have been broadcasting on the news just how many troops are within striking distance and it ain't anywhere close to being enough to drive back your engaging echelons.

    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    We haven't had a capable military in decades.
    Battle has a way of making you capable. There is one thing I've noticed throughout this entire event starting with Crimea. None of your units panic or deserted in the face of the enemy.
    Chimo

  9. #2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Battle has a way of making you capable.
    Very true Sir. We are learning more every day. The lessons are harsh, but we are always more capable than the day before.

    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    There is one thing I've noticed throughout this entire event starting with Crimea. None of your units panic or deserted in the face of the enemy.
    At the time it occurred, Ukraine was totally unprepared to defend Crimea. Much has changed since then. The Russian mercenaries will pay a hefty price now for every inch of our land they seek to steal.

  10. #2020
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    A glimpse into one of the most violent locations in eastern Ukraine...

    Ukraine’s frontline troops, surrounded by enemies

  11. #2021
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    According to Washington sources, the California National Guard will begin training the Ukraine military beginning in 2015. The CNG is somewhat familiar with Ukraine, helping to train a contingent of peacekeepers we sent to Iraq.

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    Political development? Russia solidifies control over separatists...it's mind blowing how brazenly the Russian government and its surrogates lie.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/04/wo...overnment.html
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  13. #2023
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    According to Washington sources, the California National Guard will begin training the Ukraine military beginning in 2015. The CNG is somewhat familiar with Ukraine, helping to train a contingent of peacekeepers we sent to Iraq.
    If you are wondering why the California Army NAtional Guard was selected? Its because they have been working with the Ukraine military for 2 decades.

    California

    All 54 states and territories National Guards participate.

    Here is on the overall program. I have seen soldiers from Tajikistan at FT Pickett here in Virginia.

    State Partnership Program - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  14. #2024
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    A BBC video interview (audio English translation) with Ukraine Defense Minister Valeriy Heletey.

    BBC News - Ukraine defence minister: 'We will defeat terrorists' (accessed on 4 August 2014)

    A few interesting pieces:

    Vladimir Putin faces dilemma over Ukraine of empire or nation-state

    Does Being Russian Mean Never Having To Say You're Sorry?

  15. #2025
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Battle has a way of making you capable. There is one thing I've noticed throughout this entire event starting with Crimea. None of your units panic or deserted in the face of the enemy.
    The Ukrainian units did not panic nor desert in Crimea, they just switched their side. And yesterday 450 brave Ukrainian warriors crossed Russian border and asked for refuge. No panic detected by Western media, again.
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4ErRXgvZ35E
    Meanwhile patriotic Ukrainians in the West of Ukraine welcome the third wave of mobilization.
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TfRC3WZZIuc
    Last edited by Zampolit; 04 Aug 14, at 21:49.

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