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Thread: Ukraine: After the May 25 Election

  1. #1996
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    I said this weeks ago. END OF STORY
    Anyone with half a brain can read those tea-leaves.

  2. #1997
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    So which points of Russia's proposed encirclement of Ukrainian forces are these Russian tanks? Where are they likely headed? The convoy of 50 Russian vehicles. What happened to them?
    They probably took highway MO4 towards Donetsk. I imagine they are now supporting the rebels at Shaktorsk and Horlivka.

  3. #1998
    Patron sail4evr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    "Albany absurd? And you advocate the US dropping an ICBM over there."

    Comedic.

    Well done, JAD.
    At least I advocate something. What do you advocate?

    So sad you're laughing at me. Russia will have the last laugh.
    Last edited by sail4evr; 03 Aug 14, at 12:12.

  4. #1999
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    It's propaganda intended to burnish Putin's image as a man of action and fearlessness. Obama is portrayed as the cuddly poodle antithesis of Putin. To that end, many around the world consider the contrasting images an apt facsimile.
    Obviously, but it is also a double edged sword for the more thoughtful of your readers.

  5. #2000
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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    At least I advocate something. What do you advocate?
    You're advocating a nuclear strike against Russia just because you feel like it. The Ukraines are not even an ally.

    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    So sad you're laughing at me. Russia will have the last laugh.
    Russia can't win without committing an entire army, 30,000 strong, and they ain't nowhere close to committing that. Yeah, we know. We've been watching. At most, 3 regiments are ready. That's one division. They're two divisions short.

    We're laughing at your amateurish attempts to be an armchair general.
    Chimo

  6. #2001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    If Putin orders Russian forces across the border, our ATO forces will be encircled within a day or so. A northern pincer from the Russian Western Military District (Belgorod) will enter Ukraine in the Kharkiv Oblast and travel south. A southern pincer will enter from Crimea and sprint northeast through the Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. These are the anvils. The hammer will enter the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine from the Russian Southern Military District at Rostov-on-Don and push westward.
    That I strongly doubt. If you can read the map, so can Ukrainian Generals. They would have at least eyes and ears watching crossing points. Your ATO forces would have advance warning of approaching Russian columns and react accordingly, at the very least, outrun the Russians ... that is not even considering that we, NATO, would tell the Ukrainians that the jump out off points have been manned and the vehciles gased up.

    The last thing any General, even Russian ones, is to walk into a battalion level prepared defence blind and the Russians would be blind. The situation is completely fluid.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 03 Aug 14, at 13:02.
    Chimo

  7. #2002

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    "At least I advocate something...".

    Uninformed idiocy? Nothing else explains advocating the launch of a non-existent conventionally-armed ICBM. If one of those missiles EVER comes out of a silo by it's own power? KISS YOUR AZZ goodbye because the other side will see it and they sure as hell won't believe there's any conventional warhead mounted on it.

    "...What do you advocate..?"

    That you write less. Read more.

    "...So sad you're laughing at me."

    Beez dat way, bro. Move beyond it.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  8. #2003
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The last thing any General, even Russian ones, is to walk into a battalion level prepared defence blind and the Russians would be blind. The situation is completely fluid.
    The Russians are far from blind. They know from satellites, drone flights, recon birds, and their theater commanders exactly where ATO forces are... forces which are not in a defensive posture. Looking at it from a Russian viewpoint, the ATO forces are already conveniently in a pocket. All would depend on who can reach the escape oblasts of Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk first. I don't like it Colonel. Not one bit. But I see no alternative. You have to be where the enemy is.

  9. #2004
    Patron sail4evr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    You're advocating a nuclear strike against Russia just because you feel like it. The Ukraines are not even an ally.

    Russia can't win without committing an entire army, 30,000 strong, and they ain't nowhere close to committing that. Yeah, we know. We've been watching. At most, 3 regiments are ready. That's one division. They're two divisions short.

    We're laughing at your amateurish attempts to be an armchair general.
    Well at least I take time to read your posts and I would have thought you would do me the courtesy to read mine in its entirety. I said conventional warhead. I said nothing about nuclear. In fact your the one suggesting
    " Surface the entire SSBN fleet off both of Russia's coast. A flight of B-52s rushing their borders and challenging their air defences. A REFORGER exercise even at the division level. Putin wants a return to the Cold War. Fine. Let's show them who's ready to play because I can guarrantee you it ain't the Russians." In fact you are the one bringing us to the brink of a nuclear war in a stupid game of chicken threatening an attack on their homeland playing armchair general. I was suggesting a sting operation on a small worthless peace of Ukraine soil. Guess who's laughing now. Now talk yourself out of this.

  10. #2005

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    Minnie,

    I generally concur with you regarding Ukrainian vulnerability to a double envelopment. Not sure I understand your contention that one of the wings would come out of Crimea, however. Wouldn't that be required to pass through Perekop where any attack not amphibious would be channelized? Neither the Germans nor the Soviets found entry to Crimea very easy from that direction. I can't imagine exiting though the same gate any easier if facing prepared defenses.

    Brings me to the next (and larger) point. You're probably correct because prepared defenses there (or elsewhere along your border) are non-existent. So too the troops to man them and the mobile forces to back them. It's been, IMV, all your army could do to muster the forces necessary to fight an ATO that's expanded in tempo and ferocity even as the area seized by rebels has diminished.

    Russia probably can adversely impact that fight by demonstrating along the flanks. Unless the Ukrainian army possesses coherent reserves able to counter those threats, forces presently engaged in ATO ops must be ready to dis-engage to the extent necessary for meeting a threat from the flanks or retreating beyond that encirclement.

    Unless, of course, Goering promises to keep them re-supplied from the air.

    Wouldn't trust that one.

    All this ultimately points to questioning the Ukraine's ability to sustain this expanding war. If prosecuting the ATO to conclusion requires everything, including trained (or untrained) replacements for engaged units suffering from growing casualty lists, it becomes immensely difficult resourcing the security threat along presently quiet sectors of your mutual border.

    The Ukrainian Army had best possess active plans to fight unconventionally any Russian invasion in the east. It will be impossible to stop any concerted Russian invasion short of the Dnieper but their rear areas can be made absolutely unbearable, especially with winter approaching. I have zero solutions for your eastern populace under such circumstances. A people adversely occupied by the Russians in the midst of a winter war would be hell. Eighteen to twenty year old Russian soldiers will likely not behave under those conditions with attenuated discretion for innocents.

    The only alternative besides, ultimately, acquiescence becomes raising an army capable of immediately defeating by conventional means any encroachment along a massive border. That's a big army massively resourced and I don't see from where that's coming with a presently impoverished Ukraine.

    Even a massive infusion of monies and material won't immediately transform the size and dispositions of your immediately available or projectable forces over the near term. Of course, that "massive infusion" has yet to materialize nor visible on the immediate horizon.

    I'm very worried. I know you are too.
    Last edited by S2; 03 Aug 14, at 15:33.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  11. #2006

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    "Well at least I take time to read your posts and I would have thought you would do me the courtesy to read mine in its entirety. I said conventional warhead. I said nothing about nuclear."

    You're writing to a retired Canadian lieutenant colonel of engineers intimately acquainted with nearly all aspects surrounding the employment of strategic nuclear weapons. He well knows what you said. He well knows how ludicrous the notion of a conventionally-armed ICBM. He well knows what an ICBM launch signals to our adversaries...and it's implications.

    You're, right now, completely out of your element and need to cap it.

    JMHO.
    Last edited by S2; 03 Aug 14, at 15:38.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  12. #2007
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    Sail,

    Short translation on OOE is there is no such thing as a conventional icbm. Even if there are some, the moment they launch, well we can start our last dinner.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  13. #2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    The Russians are far from blind.
    Oh they are, Captain. The rebels can't even set up an ambush.

    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    They know from satellites, drone flights, recon birds,
    We had more than the Russians did during the Iraq Invasion and still, 80% of all ground combat was a meeting engagement. What's more, they were ambushes, meaning the Iraqis knew exactly where we were and we did not know where they were and this was after we pounded them from the air.

    More than that, our supply columns had to punch their way through to the front.

    And the Russians today have nowhere close to what we got during the Iraq War.

    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    and their theater commanders exactly where ATO forces are... forces which are not in a defensive posture. Looking at it from a Russian viewpoint, the ATO forces are already conveniently in a pocket. All would depend on who can reach the escape oblasts of Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk first. I don't like it Colonel. Not one bit. But I see no alternative. You have to be where the enemy is.
    Each of those Ukrainian groups are brigade level strength. Meaning that you need at least a division to take them on (according to Russian military thiought. They would prefer 6 to 1, ie two divisions against a brigade but they would make do with 3 to 1). A NATO brigade can take on a Ukrainian brigade without such odds but then we have both the technology and the techniques to chop up the brigade and isolate it into extremely small pockets (company and platoon).

    Crimea does not give me confidence that the Russians have come close to that.

    So, in short, you need 3 Russian divisions, ie an army, to take on those 3 Ukrainian brigades.

    We ain't seeing no such thing.
    Chimo

  14. #2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    A REFORGER exercise even at the division level.
    Would have to be a REFORPOL or REFORBAL nowadays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sail4evr View Post
    In fact you are the one bringing us to the brink of a nuclear war in a stupid game of chicken threatening an attack on their homeland playing armchair general. I was suggesting a sting operation on a small worthless peace of Ukraine soil. Guess who's laughing now. Now talk yourself out of this.
    Oh for Pete sakes! We played these games all the time during the Cold War. The Russians have started playing them again. Single flight BEARS have been playing chicken with out air defences.

    The rules are well known and well understood. We can do everything we want in international airspace and waters provided we do not initiate weapons hot. A fleet of SSBN surfacing in international waters is a demonstration. REFORGER exercises, we're transporting troops to Germany. A flight of B52s outside of Russian airspace can fly all they want. Hell, we used these games to hone our skills. A regiment of BACKFIRES are allowed to buzz an American carrier if there are no weapons lock. That same American carrier will use that Soviet regiment to practice their interception skills.

    Your suggestion of an American attack on Russian military personel is an Act of War. Hell, let me tell you something else. The MINUTEMAN III can carry 3 warheads of 600+lbs. Each one of those will make a mushroom cloud. I strongly doubt that any Russian Regimental Colonel has been trained to recognize a nuke strike. We haven't for over 20 years.

    Yeah, read more and write less.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 03 Aug 14, at 16:14. Reason: spelling
    Chimo

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