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European Election 2014

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  • European Election 2014

    Well, well, don't have a thread for that yet. Third-largest election on the planet by constituency, for 751 seats representing some 500+ million people.

    Voting days are:
    - May 22nd : 99 seats : United Kingdom, Netherlands
    - May 23rd : 32 seats : Czech Republic (also 24th), Ireland
    - May 24th : 88 seats : France (also 25th), Latvia, Malta
    - May 25th : 532 seats : everyone else

    Results may not be released for any of the subconstituencies before the election concludes on sunday, 8 pm.

    The various parties existing in the subconstituencies form paneuropean parties or vote blocs in parliament after the election. In order to form such a party, a minimum of 25 representatives have to join together. The last projection i've seen, from May 21st, expects the following results:

    29.2% / 219 seats (-6.6%) : European People's Party (christian democrats and other conservatives)
    26.9% / 202 seats (+1.4%) : Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (social-democrats)
    9.45% / 71 seats (-1.4%) : Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (non-Greenish center-right and center-left liberals)
    7.59% / 57 seats (+3.6%) : Europe of Freedom and Democracy (anti-european hodgepodge incl. UKIP)
    6.79% / 51 seats (+2.2%) : Confederation of United European Left and Northern Green Left (socialists)
    6.66% / 50 seats (-0.8%) : European Conservatives and Reformists (Tory-centered national conservatives)
    5.59% / 42 seats (-1.7%) : European Free Alliance (Greens and a handful Pirates)
    4.79% / 36 seats (*) : European Alliance for Freedom (French, Italian, Dutch and Austrian nazis)
    3.06% / 23 seats (*) : other parties (fringe parties, Hungarian and German nazis)

    * EAF would be a newly formed bloc. "Others" including these parties currently hold 4.3% of seats, i.e. a gain of +3.5% is expected. This gain would mostly stem from the expected rise of Front National in France.

    Seat distribution majorly favours parties in smaller nations - the largest state, Germany, holds one seat per 850,000 people (similar number in France and UK), while the smallest state, Malta, holds one seat per 75,000 people. Attempts to change this in various ways over the past decade have failed.

    Since there is no European government, no actual "government"/"opposition" blocs are formed by these parties. Voting in parliament occurs in adhoc alliances, however there has always been an informal grand coalition between EPP and S&D holding the absolute majority together. Everyone else just forms right and left wings around that coalition.
    Last edited by kato; 23 May 14,, 19:36.

  • #2
    Germany did not use a minimum for being seated this year - from early survey results, is looks like German voters sent around 12-13 parties to the European parliament, half of them with a single seat. Might include a seat for the satirical parody party "The Party", that one's one the verge in the counting right now. Parties definitely in (aside from Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Free Democrats, Greens, Left) apparently include the anti-European AfD, the Pirates, the neonazi NPD, the conservative Free Voters Union, the conservative-green ÖDP and two furter fringe topic parties - the Family Party and the Animal Protection Party.

    French voting booths close in 15 minutes, that one's gonna be interesting.

    Comment


    • #3
      Overall, looks like S&D might become largest party bloc in parliament, finally removing EPP again (EPP has been the largest for the last 15 years).

      Martin Schulz has already pretty much declared himself victor, and is "looking to find a majority".

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by kato View Post
        Well, well, don't have a thread for that yet. Third-largest election on the planet by constituency, for 751 seats representing some 500+ million people....

        29.2% / 219 seats (-6.6%) : European People's Party (christian democrats and other conservatives)
        26.9% / 202 seats (+1.4%) : Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (social-democrats)
        9.45% / 71 seats (-1.4%) : Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (non-Greenish center-right and center-left liberals)
        7.59% / 57 seats (+3.6%) : Europe of Freedom and Democracy (anti-european hodgepodge incl. UKIP)
        6.79% / 51 seats (+2.2%) : Confederation of United European Left and Northern Green Left (socialists)
        6.66% / 50 seats (-0.8%) : European Conservatives and Reformists (Tory-centered national conservatives)
        5.59% / 42 seats (-1.7%) : European Free Alliance (Greens and a handful Pirates)
        4.79% / 36 seats (*) : European Alliance for Freedom (French, Italian, Dutch and Austrian nazis)
        3.06% / 23 seats (*) : other parties (fringe parties, Hungarian and German nazis)

        * EAF would be a newly formed bloc. "Others" including these parties currently hold 4.3% of seats, i.e. a gain of +3.5% is expected. This gain would mostly stem from the expected rise of Front National in France....

        Since there is no European government, no actual "government"/"opposition" blocs are formed by these parties. Voting in parliament occurs in adhoc alliances, however there has always been an informal grand coalition between EPP and S&D holding the absolute majority together. Everyone else just forms right and left wings around that coalition.
        Originally posted by kato View Post
        Overall, looks like S&D might become largest party bloc in parliament, finally removing EPP again (EPP has been the largest for the last 15 years).

        Martin Schulz has already pretty much declared himself victor, and is "looking to find a majority".
        and therefore it is not like most other elections. Most people, of the few that do vote, do not vote with these parties in mind, but in sync with the national parties they represent.

        Originally posted by kato View Post
        Overall, looks like S&D might become largest party bloc in parliament, finally removing EPP again (EPP has been the largest for the last 15 years).

        Martin Schulz has already pretty much declared himself victor, and is "looking to find a majority".
        Usually significant financial turmoil leads to the defeat of the majority party in favour of the second largest opposing party at a national level, with support also increasing in fringe parties and independents. I suppose you could say we are seeing at similar replication at the European level although the 2 main blocks are hardly ideologically opposed.

        The end result is that it is hard to imagine that a desire amongst the populace for change can actually translate into a meaningful change in parties and policy. There just isn't a link between the parties/alliances and people's choices on the ground strong enough to bring it about, even if there was a traditional European government. National politics of each country is the key player and the results can only be meaningfully interpreted at this level.

        That's why its not surprising to see such a low turnout and relatively small change in composition, despite the severe and near disintegration, (perceived or real) of the eurozone. Politics not mirroring the economics in magnitude would be my early and timid interpretation of the projection you supplied.

        Although maybe its best to actually wait for the results.
        Last edited by tantalus; 25 May 14,, 19:24.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by kato View Post
          Overall, looks like S&D might become largest party bloc in parliament, finally removing EPP again (EPP has been the largest for the last 15 years).

          Martin Schulz has already pretty much declared himself victor, and is "looking to find a majority".
          Kato, do you think this will have any significant affect on the future of the EU and/or on any specific policies/strategies? as opposed to an alternative result with the EPP leading the show

          Comment


          • #6
            Nah, not really. We'll always have a grand coalition of S&D and EPP seeking compromise on everything.

            S&D obviously have a party program laid out: http://socialistsanddemocrats.eu/sit...il_2014_EN.pdf

            What might change some things is UKIP going as strong as they apparently did. I don't really expect the UK to still be a full EU member by the next election.

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            • #7
              Live feature of exit polls and preliminary results can be found here btw: Elections Night 2014

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by kato View Post
                I don't really expect the UK to still be a full EU member by the next election.
                How will that work out? You are a member or you are not.
                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                Comment


                • #9
                  What if a new country joins the EU after the elections in terms of representation in parliament?

                  Does the overall number of seats increase?
                  To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                    What if a new country joins the EU after the elections in terms of representation in parliament?
                    Does the overall number of seats increase?
                    The Lisbon Treaty sets the number of seats to a fixed 751 (750 + president), which are divided among the members by population with a minimum of 6 seats per state. If a new member joins during the running legislature term, the number of seats is temporarily enlarged to accomodate their representatives until the next election. Upon the next election, seat numbers are reapportioned to the members based on population.
                    This happened for example with Croatia. The parliament was temporarily enlarged by 12 seats (the proper proportional amount compared to the other members), and for the current election reverts to 751 - with Croatia, Romania, Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Austria, Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania and Latvia losing one seat each.

                    If hypothetically say Turkey with its 77 million people joined the EU, the parliament would temporarily be enlarged by about 93 seats and after the next election everyone's seat shares would be rearranged to fit the cap. Effectively this would likely mean that smaller countries lose seats while the five biggest would proportionally be better represented.

                    The seat distribution in the parliament is always a rather political thing though, and rather complicated. The current attempt maps a 160x population difference to a decided 16x difference between min/max seat caps, while keeping the seat numbers as close as possible to previous numbers. Reductions through new accessions are thus only applied to the "size classes" 3 through 7.
                    Last edited by kato; 26 May 14,, 06:00.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                      as opposed to an alternative result with the EPP leading the show
                      EPP seems to lead the show until Forza Italia bails out on demagogic principles for their next government collapse and reelection in the second half of 2014.

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                      • #12
                        Thanks, Kato.
                        To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                        • #13
                          With UKIP topping the poll in UK and FN topping them in France I wonder if we will told to vote again and get it right.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by snapper View Post
                            With UKIP topping the poll in UK and FN topping them in France I wonder if we will told to vote again and get it right.
                            No. Still minority in the EP.
                            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                            Comment

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