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  • PLA troops spotted near China-Vietnam border

    From Want China Times:
    A large number of People's Liberation Army troops have been spotted heading towards the China-Vietnam border as tensions between the two countries continue to escalate, reports Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily.
    Shades of 1979 (i.e. another Chinese punitive expedition into Vietnam)?

  • #2
    Doubt it, at least for the time being. That rig isn't going anywhere. The CCP got what it wanted (thus far). My gues is those PLA troops are only going over the border if the Vietnamese lose control of things.

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    • #3
      Chinese ships arrive in Vietnam to get citizens after deadly attacks - CNN.com
      In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

      Leibniz

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      • #4
        I agree. If anything, this will serve as a foundation which the Chinese will build on. With the sheer number of vessels the PRC is able to deploy, and has in support of this oil rig, indicates that this was a test run. Time will tell though, if the rig is even worth it. Wouldn't be the first time drilling for oil came up lacking results.

        However, I don't think it plausible that the PLAA will cross into VN.
        "We are all special cases." - Camus

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        • #5
          the oil rig will stay even if its dry. its about footprint
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          • #6
            not too many oil rigs get their very own submarine as a watchdog....
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            • #7
              I doubt that the PLA divisions on the border have received enough supplies to mount any punitive action.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
                I doubt that the PLA divisions on the border have received enough supplies to mount any punitive action.
                its about the message - not an intent
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                • #9
                  I think the more important question now is what will be the Vietnamese reaction to the message? They have lost a lot of face out of this and even though they might be fraternal socialist comrades, national prestige and access to economic resources are at stake.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ngatimozart View Post
                    I think the more important question now is what will be the Vietnamese reaction to the message? They have lost a lot of face out of this and even though they might be fraternal socialist comrades, national prestige and access to economic resources are at stake.
                    No love lost between vietnamese and chinese for the last millenium. they've had political relationships of convenience but when push comes to shove they loathe each other with a passion
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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                      its about the message - not an intent
                      So, the two of you are in agreement it seems.

                      Can Nam do anything about that rig? Moreover, is Uncle Sam willing to say no pasaran or will turn a blind eye like in Georgia?
                      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                      • #12
                        Yes, and iirc in 1979 the Vietnamese won that fisticuffs. However times, policies, economies and force structures have changed, so I am of the opinion that if they choose the military option again, the Vietnamese will not fare anywhere near so well. The PLA will have not forgotten the shame of 1979.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                          So, the two of you are in agreement it seems.

                          Can Nam do anything about that rig? Moreover, is Uncle Sam willing to say no pasaran or will turn a blind eye like in Georgia?
                          Nam might be able to but at present it has to determine whether or not it would be in its best interest to do so. For example attacking the rig would be an escalation of the situation even though it is perceived that Vietnam has the legal & moral "high ground". I don't think the US really wants to become embroiled in the situation apart from lots of talk and little or no action.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            So, the two of you are in agreement it seems.

                            Can Nam do anything about that rig? Moreover, is Uncle Sam willing to say no pasaran or will turn a blind eye like in Georgia?
                            the PACRIM neighbours have been voicing their concerns to the US for some time - and have been quite vocal about keeping the US engaged for balance of power. Chinas change in posture over the last 3 years had resulted in the region becoming hypersensitive about china's more physical approach. The chinese are playing the victim card again but thats a ridiculous canard. They've bought this shift on themselves
                            The Viets are buying subs from Russia that although "monkey" (export) versions, are still considered by the russians to be superior to what china has. and they trust the viets to not steal technology whereas they have to clench their teeth on chinese small sales knowing that at least one will be stripped as soon as it lands in country. The Viets are also cosying up to India, so they are looking at bracketing china with alliances and powerful friends.. Out of all the aggrieved states, they are the ones who are more likely to respond with vigour if the chinese overstep.

                            I can't see the US turning a blind eye - but the chinese are confident that they have the US in check. There is some irony in the fact that avowed enemies are now so closely tied basically just outside of a generation of cessation of hostilities
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ngatimozart View Post
                              Yes, and iirc in 1979 the Vietnamese won that fisticuffs. However times, policies, economies and force structures have changed, so I am of the opinion that if they choose the military option again, the Vietnamese will not fare anywhere near so well. The PLA will have not forgotten the shame of 1979.

                              What shame?
                              Last edited by Doktor; 21 May 14,, 08:51. Reason: adding quote
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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