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Thread: Dateline: Ukraine

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Indeed, the Russian people are capable of incredible hardship and dogged persistence in wars with bullets but, if history serves, less so in fighting unseen influences, cultural or otherwise. Today there is no Napoleon or Hitler poised to march to Moscow, only sanctions for THEIR aggression. While the people may bear economic sanctions for a long while, their endurance will be tested when it turns out the sacrifice is not worthy of the threat. Sanctions are not to punish the people, but to weaken the leadership. We are in a new world where economic leverage is replacing armies as primary tools of statecraft. Putin may not fully appreciate that now, but he may soon.
    JAD, very briefly, sanctions do not work.

    They did not work against India.

    They have not worked against Iran.

    They surely are not going to work against Russia.

    You can make things tough for the people of the country you are sanctioning, but eventually they are going to adapt, like water finding the path of least resistance. With that adpatation will come alternatives. And funnily in a way, the sanctions once braved, actually make the sanctioned country stronger and more self reliant than what they were earlier.

    Plus it also makes them more pissed, and more determined, with a more hardened stance. Not to mention gives the administration the perfect flagpole for the junta to rally around.

    I do not think sanctions are a concept which is past its shelf life. I think sanctions is a concept that was stillborn to begin with.

  2. #62
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Substitute any country you like, but Russia. The point doesn't change.
    It doesn't work that way. I mean if you want to follow some principles, like free-will, property laws, human rights, etc.

    There are exceptions, but noone publicly approves them today.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  3. #63
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sated buddha View Post
    JAD, very briefly, sanctions do not work.

    They did not work against India.

    They have not worked against Iran.

    They surely are not going to work against Russia.

    You can make things tough for the people of the country you are sanctioning, but eventually they are going to adapt, like water finding the path of least resistance. With that adpatation will come alternatives. And funnily in a way, the sanctions once braved, actually make the sanctioned country stronger and more self reliant than what they were earlier.

    Plus it also makes them more pissed, and more determined, with a more hardened stance. Not to mention gives the administration the perfect flagpole for the junta to rally around.

    I do not think sanctions are a concept which is past its shelf life. I think sanctions is a concept that was stillborn to begin with.
    Have to disagree with you. Properly delivered sanctions work just fine.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Have to disagree with you. Properly delivered sanctions work just fine.
    They work insofar as making things difficult for the country and mainly the people of the country sanctioned. Nothing changes for the leaders.

    But they do not work in terms of getting the sanctioned country to come around. In the end there is always a step down. After decades of sanctions. And you realise nothing really changed.

    In effect, the sanctioning countries land up simply twisting the arm of the sanctioned country. Never breaking it. And the twisted arm eventually gets stronger.

    Nothing really has changed from the old school way of doing things. If you want something, if you want someone to do something, and you want it badly enough and want it quickly enough, you have to break the arm. By force. Twisting it is never going to work. And its going to take so long that in the interim he's going to either figure out a way of getting out of your hold OR the arm is going to get too strong to twist OR your going to get tired of twisting it OR someone somewhere needs your arm untwisted for his own interests and is going to come over and help you out of the armhold.

    And I do not see the US breaking Russia's arm. I do not even see the US having a proper armhold on Russia's arm.
    Last edited by sated buddha; 29 Apr 14, at 07:22.

  5. #65
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    You gospel the little usurped dictators it seems and their surviving skills.

    Sanctions are intended to prevent the country stop doing what they've been doing to become a threat and to weaken the dictator.It's up to people on the ground if they want to live that way or not.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    You gospel the little usurped dictators it seems and their surviving skills.

    Sanctions are intended to prevent the country stop doing what they've been doing to become a threat and to weaken the dictator.It's up to people on the ground if they want to live that way or not.
    Who decides who is a dictator? And what other people need or do not need?

    Can you name me one example where sanctions have made a people revolt against their leadership?

    Sanctions are intended for arm twisting to enforce conformity to a certain world view. Where force is either not a working alternative or face needs to be saved for the appearance of doing "something."

    As is the current case.
    Last edited by sated buddha; 29 Apr 14, at 09:16.

  7. #67
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sated buddha View Post
    JAD, very briefly, sanctions do not work.

    They did not work against India.

    They have not worked against Iran.

    They surely are not going to work against Russia.

    You can make things tough for the people of the country you are sanctioning, but eventually they are going to adapt, like water finding the path of least resistance. With that adpatation will come alternatives. And funnily in a way, the sanctions once braved, actually make the sanctioned country stronger and more self reliant than what they were earlier.

    Plus it also makes them more pissed, and more determined, with a more hardened stance. Not to mention gives the administration the perfect flagpole for the junta to rally around.

    I do not think sanctions are a concept which is past its shelf life. I think sanctions is a concept that was stillborn to begin with.
    They worked against Myanmar.

    They worked against Apartheid Sth Africa.

    They ultimately helped to remove Milosovic.

    Sanctions can work if done properly. The threat of sanctions can have an impact. The issue here is understanding what they can & can't do and in what time frame. The 'rally around the flag' effect doesn't last forever. They may not stop Putin right now, but they can badly damage the Russian economy. National pride only gets you so far. Sanctions aren't some magic bullet, but neither are they useless.


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  8. #68
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sated buddha View Post
    Who decides who is a dictator? And what other people need or do not need?

    Can you name me one example where sanctions have made a people revolt against their leadership?

    Sanctions are intended for arm twisting to enforce conformity to a certain world view. Where force is either not a working alternative or face needs to be saved for the appearance of doing "something."

    As is the current case.
    Most lately Milosevic. But, BF already covered it.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  9. #69
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    In addition to the US and EU, Canada and Japan have also announced new sanctions against Russia. John Kerry says the US is very close to initiating the much harsher sector sanctions.

    Kerry says US "inches away" from imposing broader sanctions on Russian economy | Fox News

  10. #70
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    To add to BF's list, sanctions worked against the Soviet Union. I just can't wait to see Putin try and institute another command economy.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

    Leibniz

  11. #71
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    To add to BF's list, sanctions worked against the Soviet Union. I just can't wait to see Putin try and institute another command economy.
    You took that train trip? If not is it still on the list?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  12. #72
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Pics from the attacked pro-Unity rally in Donetsk. Courtesy - France 24.


    Before the rally


    Before the rally


    Thousands march peacefully


    Attacked by pro-Russia goons


    Armed to stab and shoot


    The image speaks for itself

  13. #73
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    I think there are experts who feel different ......

    New Russia Sanctions Will Have Little Impact, Experts Say

    Either way, I guess most of you would agree that Russia is not close to any of the examples put forward. Even if you discount the timespans for effect .....

    With Russia and the US/Western world, the old realities still remain.

    Regardless of the Cold War being over, Russia is not close to being over. It may not be what the USSR was, but its not going to get arm twisted either. Not when there are a host of countries, India and China included, who will continue to do business with Russia. And not when Russia has stuff to sell which others want to buy.

    There will come a point of clashing interests. And at that point you (US/West) will have to break that arm because it will twist no more.

    Are you ready to break that arm?

    I guess all the Ukraine discussions and threads finally boil down to that one point.

    And I guess Putin knows that as well. Better than most here.
    Last edited by sated buddha; 29 Apr 14, at 10:16.

  14. #74
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Who would you prefer as an Indian to work with? Sanctioned Russia or the "West"? Same goes for the Chinese.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Who would you prefer as an Indian to work with? Sanctioned Russia or the "West"? Same goes for the Chinese.
    If I had to choose, I would prefer Russia. They've been good to us for a lot longer than the West. At a time when we really needed them. They stood up to another nuclear superpower for us. While the West still arms and sleeps with my blood enemy.

    Hope that answers your question in a non partisan and fair manner.

    That said, I think India and China would never allow themselves to be pushed into a corner where they would need to choose.
    Last edited by sated buddha; 29 Apr 14, at 10:57.

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