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Thread: Ukraine Elections and Political Developments

  1. #31
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Russia has cut off broadcasts of Voice of America News calling it a 'propaganda tool'.

    The dangerous → VOA

  2. #32
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Poroshenko might win it all on May 25, avoiding a runoff. That would would ease the strain of mounting a second ballot in the east. The first one is already proving hard enough to hold with the separatists trying to close down polls in areas they control.


    whole story here: A Guide to the Ukrainian Elections - Businessweek

    Ukraine’s interim government might have more to lose by postponing the elections than by carrying on under current circumstances. Choosing a new, popularly elected president would add legitimacy to Kiev’s government, which could help facilitate negotiations in the east. On the other hand, carrying ahead without electoral stations in the east could fuel frustrations that Kiev is ignoring the demands of eastern Ukrainians.

    The current presidential front-runner, Petro Poroshenko, has been playing up the importance of going ahead with the election in the coming weeks and uniting behind one candidate—him—to avoid the possibility of a long and divisive presidential runoff election.
    Story: Ukraine's Government Gains the Advantage Over the Separatists

    According to a poll from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, conducted from April 29 to May 11, 54 percent of eligible voters who had already made up their minds as to whom they were going to vote for said they would cast ballots for Poroshenko. Former Prime Minister and leader of the Batkivshchyna political party Yulia Tumashenko came in second at 9.6 percent. Some 34 percent of all respondents said they would vote for Poroshenko, with Tumashenko trailing in second place, with 5.9 percent.

    Poroshenko has steadily moved toward the top of the polls, in part, because he is the least tainted of all the presidential candidates. The “chocolate king,” as he is known in Ukraine, made billions through his candy company, Roshen; his business dealings are considered, by Ukrainian standards, relatively honest. During his time in politics, Poroshenko worked in Viktor Yushenko’s pro-Western government as well as in Viktor Yanukovych’s pro-Russian government, and he has emerged untainted by large public scandals.

    A veteran politician, Poroshenko has said he does not support lustration, or political purification that would flush the old ranks from Ukraine’s new government. However, he has promised snap parliamentary elections by the end of this year to placate voters who are frustrated that many members of Parliament who colluded with the Yanukovych government are still in office.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  3. #33
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Then there's this...more confusion as to where Russia stands on the elections. Russia appears not to be speaking with one voice. On the other hand, Russia has complained that free elections cannot be held while Ukraine troops are in the field. If Ukraine troops stay the course, Russia would have a pretext, if needed, for not recognizing the winner.

    What does the interim government do? Pull back, taking the pressure off the separatists, or stay put and risk the appearance that the election was not fair because it took place under the army's guns? What's the consensus here? How about Ukraine to Russia, we'll pull back when you pull back.


    Russia says Ukraine election may aggravate crisis

    MOSCOW Tue May 20, 2014 3:31pm EDT

    (Reuters) - Sunday's presidential election in Ukraine will deepen political divisions in the country if there is no end to hostilities and a "road map" to end the crisis is not implemented, a senior Russian official was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin's remarks were the latest from Moscow to cast doubt on whether Russia will consider the election legitimate.

    In a report on talks between Karasin and British ambassador to Russia Tim Barrow, the Foreign Ministry underlined the importance of the "road map" drawn up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and constitutional reforms following an agreement reached at talks in Geneva.

    "Without the implementation of these agreements, and the immediate cessation of hostilities by (Ukrainian) army units southeastern regions, the May 25 election can only worsen the differences in the country," the ministry said.

    At the talks in Geneva, the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union agreed moves to ease tensions in Ukraine,

    following Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the seizure of buildings in the east by pro-Russian forces.

    President Vladimir Putin has said Sunday's election could be "a step in the right direction" but other Russian officials have signaled Moscow may not recognize the outcome, especially if Kiev continues to use the armed forces in eastern Ukraine.

    The pro-Western authorities in Kiev, who are not recognized by Moscow, have deployed military and security forces in the east to try to regain control of buildings seized by the pro-Russian separatists.

    The Russian Foreign Ministry said these operations "block any real steps towards de-escalation of the situation".

    Russia also wants constitutional reforms to give more autonomy to mainly Russian-speaking regions in the east.

    (Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Timothy
    Russia says Ukraine election may aggravate crisis | Reuters
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  4. #34
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Since they're locked in a stalemate anyway, I think government forces should avoid kinetic operations until after the election. The last thing needed now would be another high death toll on the scale of Odessa.

  5. #35
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Poroshenko needs 50+1% to avoid a runoff. According to most polls, he easily has that cushion.

  6. #36
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Ukraine Presidential Election - 25 May 2014

    A margin of 50+1% is required to win in the 1st round. If necessary, a 2nd round run-off between the two leading contenders will be held 15 June 2014.

    Under current law, elections for the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Parliament) will be held in 2017.


  7. #37
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    Poroshenko needs 50+1% to avoid a runoff. According to most polls, he easily has that cushion.
    50%+1 vote of all registered voters? I would hold my breath and gear for a second round.

    Spiegel's profile of the leading candidate: The Chocolate King Rises
    Last edited by Doktor; 24 May 14, at 07:25.
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  8. #38
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    50%+1 vote of all registered voters? I would hold my breath and gear for a second round.

    Spiegel's profile of the leading candidate: The Chocolate King Rises
    All voters or all votes cast Doc? Not the same thing.


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  9. #39
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    All voters or all votes cast Doc? Not the same thing.
    Over here it is 50%+1 from all registered voters. Not sure how it works in Ukraine.

    Second round here is 40% of the people to get out and the one with most votes wins.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  10. #40
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    All voters or all votes cast Doc? Not the same thing.
    I am not positive about the mechanics of this particular snap-election, but in most of the ex-Soviet republics, an election is considered legitimate if 50% of registered voters cast a ballot. In all previous presidential elections since independence (4), the lowest voter turnout has has been 68%. Most polls indicate that Poroshenko has 55% of decided voters.

    In Belarus, registered Ukrainians can vote tomorrow at the Ukraine Embassy in Minsk or the Consulate in Brest. There are no such accommodations for the 2 million Ukrainians living in the Russian Federation. Registered Ukrainian voters living in Crimea will have to travel to the mainland to vote.

    Infographic below shows the position of the candidates in relation to Unity/Federation & NATO-EU/Russia.


  11. #41
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Last edited by JAD_333; 25 May 14, at 04:53.
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  12. #42
    In Memoriam Military Professional Minskaya's Avatar
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    25 May 2014 - Election Day

    Polls opened at 8am on a nice sunny Sunday (it is 82° in Zaporozhye at 10am). Due to threats against their lives, international monitors have left the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Journalists report that 426 polling stations out of a total 2,430 in the Donetsk Region are operable. None of the the 2,510 polling stations in the city of Donetsk nor the 1,483 polling stations in the city of Luhansk are open. Exit polls should provide a snapshot of election results by tonight. The official numbers should be available by Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

    Слава Україна! / Slava Ukrayina! / Glory to Ukraine!




    For a variety of reasons, the above constitutes my last WAB post in regards to contemporary events in Ukraine.

  13. #43
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    No Darth Vader.

  14. #44
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    Does Ukraine really need any aid?

    It seems that it doesn't. Ukrainians haven't yet implemented a single condition required for receiving further IMF financial aid. Christine Lagarde already registered disproval in her letter to Ukrainian PM.

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