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Thread: Ukraine Elections and Political Developments

  1. #241
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Regardless of NPT signatories disapproval of such a project Israel, South Africa, Libya, India, Pakistan and now unfortunately North Korea have at times or continue to obtain the materials.
    Three countries in there never signed the NPT. Two have and the last one quit. Can't commingle the lot

    The subject of disapproval and attendant consequences is the primary reason those three never signed in the first place.

    Something else i wanted to say. Ukraine had 2k nukes it gave up in '94 with american encouragement.

    Makes you wonder how things would have transpired had Ukraine held onto them.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Sep 17, at 23:33.

  2. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Welcome back Colonel, I hope you are well. Regarding the points you make there is quite suffiecient technological know how within our nations to design a device.
    I'm talkling about fissile material production. That technology, especially uranium enrichment and plutonium production, are national security assets. You would be hard pressed to produce such materials through civilian reactors currently available to the countries you listed except the Ukraines who has a deep knowledge of Chernobyl. Good luck producing nukes with that knowledge.

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Regardless of NPT signatories disapproval of such a project Israel, South Africa, Libya, India, Pakistan and now unfortunately North Korea have at times or continue to obtain the materials.
    These countries had help from non-NPT nuclear weapons powers at the time. Israel and South Africa from pre-NPT France and the US, not necessarily nuclear weapons technology but nuclear technology in general. India got help from unwittingly pre-NPT Canada and the USSR. Pakistan from pre-NPT China. Lybia through non-NPT member Pakistan.

    From whom are you going to seek fissile material factories from? The North Koreans?

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Nor was a single finger on the trigger - be it Polish, Ukrainian or Romanian the point. The idea was a shared nuclear deterrent.
    A nuclear release authority with 13+ vetos? You mean to tell me that one coward from 13+ capitals is enough to stop a nuclear launch. Some deterrrent.


    Because the Polish Government are chickens and self concerned more than anything else, just like their Western neighbours.[/QUOTE]

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Makes you wonder how things would have transpired had Ukraine held onto them.
    The Ukraine would have been an ecological disaster. They were non-operational through years of neglect and required American, British, French, and Russian help to safely dismantle them.

  4. #244
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The Ukraine would have been an ecological disaster. They were non-operational through years of neglect and required American, British, French, and Russian help to safely dismantle them.
    Fine dispose off the old stuff.

    I mean Ukraine didn't even want a nuclear deterrent. Just gave it up like that after being a nuclear state. They certainly had the know how.

    It's interesting how none of the former warsaw pact saw any value in nukes. Reasons thereof need to be understood before advocating for nukes now.

    PS: GREAT TO SEE YOU BACK

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    These countries had help from non-NPT nuclear weapons powers at the time.

    Israel and South Africa from pre-NPT France and the US, not necessarily nuclear weapons technology but nuclear technology in general.

    India got help from unwittingly pre-NPT Canada and the USSR.

    Pakistan from pre-NPT China.

    Lybia through non-NPT member Pakistan.
    North Korea who's big boom making news lately.....from Pakistan.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Sep 17, at 03:04.

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Fine dispose off the old stuff.
    The old stuff was more advanced and more powerful than anything pocessed by China, France, the UK, never mind India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran, and North Korea.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I mean Ukraine didn't even want a nuclear deterrent. Just gave it up like that after being a nuclear state. They certainly had the know how.
    Like everything else, it came down to money. The nukes were not maintained because maintenance cost money. The know how also emmigrated to Russia where they could afford to keep that expertise.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It's interesting how none of the former warsaw pact saw any value in nukes. Reasons thereof need to be understood before advocating for nukes now.
    The former Warsaw Pact had Russian nukes. Moscow was not about to allow them to keep them. I believe only two countries were allowed to deliver Russian nukes. East Germany and Czechoslavkia. I can't be certain about this anymore but I seemed to recall that as a condition to disolve the Warsaw Pact, these countries must adhere to the NPT.

  6. #246
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Like everything else, it came down to money. The nukes were not maintained because maintenance cost money. The know how also emmigrated to Russia where they could afford to keep that expertise.
    Not even for a minimal deterrent. Their threat perception at the time must have been no need. The west isn't a threat anymore. But what about Russia. Nope. Never.

    I can't be certain about this anymore but I seemed to recall that as a condition to disolve the Warsaw Pact, these countries must adhere to the NPT.
    See how many birds they got with that : )

  7. #247
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    A small roundup of news of the ongoing war in Europe (1 Ukrainian soldier KIA yesterday): Putin, while at some recent 'BRICS' meeting, apparently proposed a UN peacekeeping force in Donbass... along the "demarcation line". On the surface of course this seems conciliatory etc but he is trying to take us and the world for fools again - just like in all the other 'frozen conflicts' they have a hand in (Nagorno Karabakh, Transdniestria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia - not to mention the rape of Crimea).

    The complete injustice and misunderstanding of the Minsk agreements - which I was against from the start - is that firstly Moscow never had any intention to comply (some understood this to be fair) but it forbids Ukrainian forces to liberate their own sovereign territory. If you then put a UN peacekeeping force on the 'demarcation line' (which they crossed within hours of Minsk 2 by assaulting Debaltseve) you cement in place a new border. Naturally and rightly the Ukrainian response is "Rofl... not this time" and then words I shall not repeat.


    A strange case made the news here recently - the case of a young fellow called Pavlo Hryb, from Chernihiv. Apparently this 19yr old fellow, who has some sort of medical condition, wrote some pro Ukrainian blog and was online alot - met a young Lady from Muscovy (Sochi it seems) online who said she was having trouble with her parents, ill, taking pills etc so the two arranged to meet in the Belarusian town of Gomel. So off went Pavlo on August 24 telling his parents he would back that day (kind of first date I suppose); didn't return. His Father then went to Gomel to look for him the next day - he needs daily medication so naturally the parents were concerned. Nothing... He inquired of the Belorusian authorities who warned him to leave it alone. This seemingly raised his suspicions and he put a post on Facebook and contacted the Ukrainian authorities when he returned home. It now seems that Pavlo is in a detention center in Krasnodar (Muscovy) and is charged with "terrorism" though according to his parents he had not been outside Ukraine since 2012 (the Belarusian visa restriction was rescinded only recently). Apparently the young Lady (it is said she was 17) was contacted and was coerced into this entrapment. She said "Everything was arranged, I was sent by blackmail to Belarus, we raised such topics as nationalism or something like that, well, actually, there’s a case initiated against me, too. You can say that because of the conversation with him then and… I can’t talk about this, because I signed a paper on non-disclosure." Well I am not entirely old yet but was born cynical I think and would do anything to win our war - whatever it takes - but enticing and kidnapping bloggers is a new low.

  8. #248
    Senior Contributor Amled's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    ... - but enticing and kidnapping bloggers is a new low.

    But not for the KGB it seems!
    Yes I know FSK today, but changing the name of a manure pile, doesn’t make it smell any less.
    It’s like out of the old KGB’s or Stasis’s handbook.
    When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

  9. #249
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    "conservative" it is called now by my cousins Government. The Cheka never changes.

  10. #250
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I can't be certain about this anymore but I seemed to recall that as a condition to disolve the Warsaw Pact, these countries must adhere to the NPT.
    It was Russia that insisted on NPT as they couldn't be sure to trust any of the three

    3 Ex-Soviet States To Give Up A-Arms | WAPO | May 24 1992

    Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus, three states of the former Soviet Union that have nuclear arms on their territory, formally agreed with the United States and Russia today to give up those weapons by the end of the decade and not to seek nuclear arms again.

    Had they asserted and obtained control of the weapons on their territory, Ukraine with 1,662 long-range nuclear weapons and Kazakhstan with 1,410 would have become the world's third and fourth most powerful nuclear armed nations. Each would have had more nuclear warheads, and far more destructive power, than the next three nations, France, China and Britain, added together.

    "We had to deal with the sensitivities of newly emerging states," said one of the U.S. negotiators tonight. While not actually in control of the nuclear weapons on their soil -- which are heavily guarded by troops of the nearly defunct Commonwealth of Independent States -- Ukraine and Kazakhstan saw the long-range nuclear arms as major bargaining chips with Russia and, to some extent, with the rest of the world.

    The turning point in the negotiations came when Presidents Leonid Kravchuk of Ukraine and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan came to Washington this month and pledged their cooperation in return for high-visibility White House visits, promises of U.S. aid, long-term relationships and expressions of U.S. concern for their security.
    Mind boggling how they pulled this off
    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Sep 17, at 17:08.

  11. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It was Russia that insisted on NPT as they couldn't be sure to trust any of the three

    3 Ex-Soviet States To Give Up A-Arms | WAPO | May 24 1992

    Mind boggling how they pulled this off
    A couple of things. The nuclear football (dual release authority) resided in Moscow. For these three countries to obtain control of the nukes residing on their territory, they would have to rip out the old computer circuits in those weapons and replaced them with new ones under their control.

    This requires money, on top of the maintenance that they have to do, maintenance that was being paid for by Moscow.

  12. #252
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    A couple of things. The nuclear football (dual release authority) resided in Moscow. For these three countries to obtain control of the nukes residing on their territory, they would have to rip out the old computer circuits in those weapons and replaced them with new ones under their control.

    This requires money, on top of the maintenance that they have to do, maintenance that was being paid for by Moscow.
    Yep and first of all it requires the will.

    in return for high-visibility White House visits, promises of U.S. aid, long-term relationships and expressions of U.S. concern for their security.
    expressions of concern (!) there's countries willing to live on grass to get nukes, these people had it gifted to them

    These people had no will. If anything they figured those nukes made them prime targets for a strike and just wanted nothing more to do with them

    From here

    The unraveling of the Soviet Union “happened so quickly that political parties didn’t mobilize in those countries and say, ‘Wait a minute. We can get a better price,’ or, ‘Wait a minute. Russia may become nasty again,’ etc.,” Perkovich said.
    and

    Leonid Kravchuk, the former president of Ukraine, has defended his decision to transfer the country’s nuclear weapons to Russia. But he’s also expressed regret about trading those weapons for weak Russian and American security assurances that vanished when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    “I feel cheated and offended,” he said in 2015. “We set an example. I was proud of it. I thought that everyone thinks alike. It turns out [the negotiators] all understood it only up to [the] point when they left the building. All was forgotten once the doors shut behind them.”
    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Sep 17, at 18:31.

  13. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Yep and first of all it requires the will.



    expressions of concern (!) there's countries willing to live on grass to get nukes, these people had it gifted to them

    These people had no will. If anything they figured those nukes made them prime targets for a strike and just wanted nothing more to do with them

    From here



    and
    I remind you that these countries, including the Ukraines, are still under the Russian nuclear umbrella. I also remind you that it was not that long ago that the Ukraines gave permission to Moscow to fly paratroopers to Pristina - with popular support.

    I also remind you that the two countries who faced Russian hostile acts, the Ukraines and Georgia, don't have an alliance with each other.

  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I remind you that these countries, including the Ukraines, are still under the Russian nuclear umbrella. I also remind you that it was not that long ago that the Ukraines gave permission to Moscow to fly paratroopers to Pristina - with popular support.

    I also remind you that the two countries who faced Russian hostile acts, the Ukraines and Georgia, don't have an alliance with each other.
    OOE, what do you make of reports that a large number of Ukrainian experts have been recruited to work in China?

  15. #255
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    There is currently a farce being played out on Polish/Ukrainian border - currently in Przemysl, where the trains going to Ukraine leave Poland and then enter Ukraine. The 'intercity' train it seems is being refused permission to continue by the Ukrainian train operators because on this train is 'Misha' Saakashivilli (not to mention Yulia Tymoshenko and others). Ukrzaliznytsya, the Ukrainian train operator says "The situation with the impossibility of plying the train number 715 "Przemysl - Kyiv" was formed due to the refusal of a person who has no legal grounds to enter Ukraine, to leave this train."

    For those not quite following Poroshenko some time ago rescinded Saakashvilli's Ukrainian passport for some alleged 'irregularities' in the application. Just what the 'irregularities' were the Chockster has not deigned to reveal. Presumably "secrets of state" or some other deep business not fit for human ears. Saakashvilli was in the US at the time having resigned as Governor of Odessa last year and set up his own political party the "Movement of New Forces". It is quite possible that taking his passport and essentially making him stateless was illegal in both Ukrainian and European law. The Georgians have also lodged an extradition request for him in Ukraine so he can face trial for some alleged violations of their laws when he President there. Whether it was legal or not of course requires a court case to decide and of course this can take years. It was a damn silly idea and it's motive was clearly political. Worse than that it was needless - Saakashvilli and his Party were polling around 3% and no threat to Poroshenko in the first place. Quite how Saakashvilli got from the US into Poland without a valid passport I am not sure but he got on this train in Rzeszow (which is a bit odd as it starts in Krakow normally). At Przemysl they have to change the wheel width as Poland uses narrow gauge railways and Ukraine wide gauge and the train crew change from Polish to Ukrainian (I have been on these trains myself). Thus the train has stopped as the staff have orders not to move. Naturally it's a media scrum fest which Misha is loving. All entirely unnecessary and quite pointless cause by a fit of Poroshenko's political spite.

    Live coverage can be seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qxL2Sr4bQ4

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