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Thread: Supposing North Korea and South Korea reunified tomorrow...

  1. #31
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    In the aftermath of a joint Chinese-Korean-US occupation of North Korea, I wonder what the knock on effects would be for the rest of the Asia Pacific, especially Taiwan?

  2. #32
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    What joint? It's a Chinese occupation pure and simple. The Chinese ain't going to march to the North Korean Capital and then give Seoul and Washington a say, not without billions$ in compensation.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    What joint? It's a Chinese occupation pure and simple. The Chinese ain't going to march to the North Korean Capital and then give Seoul and Washington a say, not without billions$ in compensation.
    Wouldn't that mean that China would have to foot the bill for even a low level DPRK reconstruction?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Pyongyang?

    No question, the Chinese. The South Koreans are the fixing force. The Chinese are the decisive force.
    Hammer and Anvil?
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Hammer and Anvil?
    The bulk of NK forces would be facing south so the PLA force would smash through the NK forces guarding the north border and it s a free run to Pyongyang. NK has no reserves to stop the PLA and the NK forces south cannot reorient fast enough to meet the incoming PLA forces.

  6. #36
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    well in such a situation it'd be total chaos in the north anyway. i wouldn't be surprised if army units were called towards the capital in the ensuing civil war.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    One thing to worry about is that the Norks would probably dress up as various American, Chinese and South Korean personnel and then shoot at said such personnel from a country different that the uniforms the DPRK special forces have appropriated.

    That would cause a lot of headaches if a stressed out Apache pilot who's been shot at for the past three weeks by KPA soldiers wearing PLA uniforms (or a PLA tank commander who had to put up with ACU wearing North Koreans dinking RPGs at him) happens to come across genuine PLA soldiers (or American ones, for the vice versa).

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    One thing to worry about is that the Norks would probably dress up as various American, Chinese and South Korean personnel and then shoot at said such personnel from a country different that the uniforms the DPRK special forces have appropriated.

    That would cause a lot of headaches if a stressed out Apache pilot who's been shot at for the past three weeks by KPA soldiers wearing PLA uniforms (or a PLA tank commander who had to put up with ACU wearing North Koreans dinking RPGs at him) happens to come across genuine PLA soldiers (or American ones, for the vice versa).
    Fog of war and blue on blue engagements are real threats but nothing that cannot be overcome.

  9. #39
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    Those nukes are important!

    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    There is no other choice. A North Korean collapse means not only refugees but their nuclear materials. Someone has to got to get control of their nukes fast ... and that someone are the Chinese. Everyone acknowledges this. Why else do you think the 38th and the 39th GAs are on the North Korean border?
    This alone would be a good reason for the Chinese to invade the North at the first sign of trouble. The last thing Beijing wants is a terrorist outfit like East Turkestan Independence Movement or Al-Qaeda getting their hands on those nukes. Which reminds me, in the event of said invasion P'yeongyang may decide to f**k the Chinese over one last time by handing those nukes over to Beijing's enemies before the PLA can get to them. A small measure of revenge for the Kims.

  10. #40
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    The NKs don't have a working nuke yet.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The NKs don't have a working nuke yet.
    Which is why NK is engaged in a fair bit of sabre-rattling; P'yeongyang cannot let the world know the true condition of their military. (The US has a VERY powerful military and, as far as I know, they do not engage in that kind of behavior, nor would they need to.) Still, in the event of a military conflict in NK, the lack of a successful NK nuke design would not stop terrorists from seeking these designs so they can be given to someone that can make them work.

  12. #42
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    Something that has not been mentioned here is that, if China does ultimately decide to invade NK, the groundwork will likely be done well before the first PLA units cross the Yalü. For one, Beijing may seek ways to reduce to almost nil the influence that the Kims have over their subjects, at least so that there is no real threat of having to fight hostile civilians as well as military units. As well, Beijing will want to make friends with SK and Japan so that they do not become too interested in NK once things go downhill.

    Or Beijing might even pull some puppet strings from behind the scenes and arrange a quiet changing of the guard in P'yeongyang. However, they would have to pull this off without provoking a civil war, which would give rise to a mass exodus of war refugees.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crocodylus View Post
    Which is why NK is engaged in a fair bit of sabre-rattling; P'yeongyang cannot let the world know the true condition of their military. (The US has a VERY powerful military and, as far as I know, they do not engage in that kind of behavior, nor would they need to.) Still, in the event of a military conflict in NK, the lack of a successful NK nuke design would not stop terrorists from seeking these designs so they can be given to someone that can make them work.
    That's the point. There is no design. The NKs don't have any nukes lying around simply because they have not got one that worked. At best they've got some finished prototypes that may or may not work.

    Also, who are you going to give it to that they have the resources to make the nuke work? It's not like Al Qaeda got a $billion lab sitting somewhere.

  14. #44
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    It wouldn't have to be a working nuke, a terrorist group would prize an RDD/dirty bomb just as much- simpler but still devastating in rendering whole areas uninhabitable.

  15. #45
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    A dirty bomb's main effect is terror. A good rain will bring back much life to any such area.

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