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Thread: 777 missing with 239 souls on board

  1. #31
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    More than two hours but they haven't found that piece again. Malaysia is sending 5 more ships to the location.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Whale View Post
    Here are some finer details on one of the stolen passports.



    On the terrorist side, no group has come forward claiming credit for it. It is highly unlikely the Uyghur (considered a regional militant group, not a transnational terrorist group such as al Qaeda) have the capabilities from planning to the execution phase of the terrorist attack cycle to launch international operations of this calibre.

    Any terrorist cell would need to identify targets, do detailed surveillance of potential targets, do further surveillance of the chosen target, recruit personnel, plan operations, acquire or build any weapons, place personnel into key positions (which could take years), then execute it without anything going wrong or being detected. There are a lot of detection points of vulnerability, especially given tightened aviation security since 9/11. Moreover when you consider the limited capabilities of Uyghur modus opperanti in the past (for example exploiting soft targets as seen at Kunming Train Station recently, or low level bombings) it seems highly unlikely they could successfully perform an international commercial aviation hijacking outside of China at all.
    East Turkestan Islamic Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    No terrorist group is known to be able to conduct sophisticated attacks.... until they conduct their first sophisticated attack. The attackers dont even have to be Uighur, thry just have to adppt their cause.

    This week is also the NPC.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    East Turkestan Islamic Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    No terrorist group is known to be able to conduct sophisticated attacks.... until they conduct their first sophisticated attack. The attackers dont even have to be Uighur, thry just have to adppt their cause.

    This week is also the NPC.
    But if say, AQAP can get inside Kuala Lumpur, then why use it to attack a KL-Beijing flight, as opposed to one going to Europe, Australia or the U.S.?

    That's like the PLA using a zero day exploit of the DoD IT system to screw around with DoD civilian pay checks.

  4. #34
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Lot of assets in the area at least. If it's there to be found, they'll get it.
    Fair to say the area is being blanketed with assets from Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Singapore and even Australia. We have sent 2 P3 Orions. Let's hope we find the plane soon for the sake of the families.


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  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    But if say, AQAP can get inside Kuala Lumpur, then why use it to attack a KL-Beijing flight, as opposed to one going to Europe, Australia or the U.S.?

    That's like the PLA using a zero day exploit of the DoD IT system to screw around with DoD civilian pay checks.
    Because there is more than one group they want to attack. And in case the significance has been missed, this week is China's annual NPC - The National People's Congress.

    National People's Congress - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

  6. #36
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Whale View Post
    Here are some finer details on one of the stolen passports.



    On the terrorist side, no group has come forward claiming credit for it. It is highly unlikely the Uyghur (considered a regional militant group, not a transnational terrorist group such as al Qaeda) have the capabilities from planning to the execution phase of the terrorist attack cycle to launch international operations of this calibre.

    Any terrorist cell would need to identify targets, do detailed surveillance of potential targets, do further surveillance of the chosen target, recruit personnel, plan operations, acquire or build any weapons, place personnel into key positions (which could take years), then execute it without anything going wrong or being detected. There are a lot of detection points of vulnerability, especially given tightened aviation security since 9/11. Moreover when you consider the limited capabilities of Uyghur modus opperanti in the past (for example exploiting soft targets as seen at Kunming Train Station recently, or low level bombings) it seems highly unlikely they could successfully perform an international commercial aviation hijacking outside of China at all.
    Tightened security? Interpol has a free system to use where the airlines can access information about stolen passports. Outside of the United States most countries elect not to use it despite the obvious benefits such as here. As far a airports there are still holes in Asian airports. Try NAIA even today.

    Hell, I once flew into the domestic terminal, at NAIA, and the plane was held on the tarmac for lack of a open dock. We were told buses would come by to get us and they did. Only problem it was to be one small bus at a time for a full plane sitting in the heat. I said the hell with that and walked off the plane onto the tarmac. I walked past other planes finding my way to a terminal door. I found the door and no one asked a thing.

  7. #37
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    Very tragic and sad for the souls lost on board.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

  8. #38
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I still don't think this makes sense. They were going to Beijing, not known as a haven for refugees.
    It turns out they were going to Western Europe, so the refugee thesis looks a bit stronger.

    The two tickets booked with China Southern Airlines both start in Kuala Lumpur, fly to Beijing, and then onward to Amsterdam. The Italian passport's ticket continues to Copenhagen, the Austrian's to Frankfurt.
    Vast waters hide clues in hunt for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - CNN.com


    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Tightened security? Interpol has a free system to use where the airlines can access information about stolen passports. Outside of the United States most countries elect not to use it despite the obvious benefits such as here.
    Apparently there are 40 million passports on the database. I wonder what would happen if everyone started trying to use it at once. I think there are over a billion flights per year. I wonder if Interpol is set up for this.

    As far a airports there are still holes in Asian airports. Try NAIA even today.
    Yes, but that's Manila. I transited through KL in 2012 on my way to Bangkok. I had my bags scanned & had to pass through a metal detector just to get into the transit lounge. I'm not saying there aren't holes, but the security seemed pretty standard to me. Same deal in Thailand. Even dinky little rural airports where the waiting areas were rather attractive open pavilions scanned everything.

    On a related note, even airports in the middle of nowhere in Ethiopia scanned everything twice. Once when you enter the airport, once when you pass into the departure lounge. Actually got pulled up when the metal detector picked up the metal studs on my shorts!!!


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  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    It turns out they were going to Western Europe, so the refugee thesis looks a bit stronger.
    !
    Not necessarily. It actually also makes perfect sense for terrorists. In either case it would allow them to avoid Chinese visa authorities. Nor would they have to get EU visas since they already have an EU passport. It's actually pretty clever but doesn't rule out either possibility. I think the passport may or may not be a red herring but the manner of the disappearance significantly narrows the possibilities.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/to...40310?irpc=932

    Note people are already making comparisons to the the Indian airlines bombing and Lockerbie. Interpol is also looking into additional suspicious passports.

    The most likely scenario I can see is that someone got a large bomb into his checked luggage, put it on a timer then got on the plane with it.
    Last edited by citanon; 10 Mar 14, at 08:55.

  10. #40
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    Not necessarily. It actually also makes perfect sense for terrorists. In either case it would allow them to avoid Chinese visa authorities. Nor would they have to get EU visas since they already have an EU passport. It's actually pretty clever but doesn't rule out either possibility.
    No, but it does make one look stronger than it did.

    Note people are already making comparisons to the the Indian airlines bombing and Lockerbie. Interpol is also looking into additional suspicious passports.
    Yes, but both of those happened in a age of unrecognizably lax airline security. I'm not saying it can't happen now, but it would be extremely difficult. Either you would have to be about the luckiest terrorist in human history, or you would have to have a network capable of infiltrating the airport staff....in which case you probably don't need to commit suicide, as they can probably just slip a bomb onto any old plane. Why not blow up one belonging to some 'oppressor' nation rather than a Muslim one?

    Apparently the US is saying it hasn't heard any chatter on this from any known terrorist networks. Now, they may be telling fibs to cover surveillance or other intel ops going on, but in that case it would make more sense to do a 'we don't divulge...' routine.

    The most likely scenario I can see is that someone got a large bomb into his checked luggage, put it on a timer then got on the plane with it.
    Most likely? Really? it is a possibility, but only one. In most cases the most obvious answer is the correct one - catastrophic fuck up by something or someone. Planes do occasionally just drop out of the sky. More frequent than terrorist bombings & therefore more likely.


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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    No, but it does make one look stronger than it did.
    How so? Unless you thought the refugee theory was completely implausible before.

    Most likely? Really? it is a possibility, but only one. In most cases the most obvious answer is the correct one - catastrophic fuck up by something or someone. Planes do occasionally just drop out of the sky. More frequent than terrorist bombings & therefore more likely.
    The scenario of a modern airliner outright disappearing without any chance for an SOS is so remote that as far as I know there are only four such incidents in modern history:

    1. Air India Flight 182 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    2. Pan Am Flight 103 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    3. TWA Flight 800 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    4. Air France Flight 447 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The Air France crash occurred in bad weather. The TWA 800 accident's lessons were dissected in minute detail and incorporated into modern airliner engineering. The other two were terrorist bombings.

    MH370 happened in perfectly clear weather as the National People's Congress was taking place in Beijing, on a plane headed for Beijing, the week after a major terrorist attack called China's 9-11.

    So yeah, likely. Not 100%, but likely.

    These last few days are probably giving sleepless nights to every anti-terrorism official around the region and around the world. An airliner, very possibly just got blown to smithereens at 31000 ft, and no one knows how. No one knows whom. Gives a new dimension of uncertainty now to everything in air transport safety.

  12. #42
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Strange in every sense , no SOS , no radar sig so that rules out hi,jack ,no signal from the black box recorder blown to shreds is the only real likely scenario , , however , no flotsam whatsoever seen , except what was thought to be a life raft which has now been ruled out ! 2 oil slicks seen ? that could be down to pumping of not so legal bilge by ships ( could be ) ? if from the plane would surely indicate it came down in one piece ?? strange indeed , its all speculation guessology from us mere mortals , very strange indeed. Hats off to the international effort of search , which is extending and hopefully will find something and clear up the mystery
    Last edited by tankie; 10 Mar 14, at 11:45.


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  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    How so? Unless you thought the refugee theory was completely implausible before.
    Stop trolling. You've been one of the one throwing up reasons why this is unlikely. Thus far they have all been dealt with.

    The scenario of a modern airliner outright disappearing without any chance for an SOS is so remote that as far as I know there are only four such incidents in modern history:

    1. Air India Flight 182 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    2. Pan Am Flight 103 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    3. TWA Flight 800 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    4. Air France Flight 447 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The Air France crash occurred in bad weather. The TWA 800 accident's lessons were dissected in minute detail and incorporated into modern airliner engineering. The other two were terrorist bombings.

    MH370 happened in perfectly clear weather as the National People's Congress was taking place in Beijing, on a plane headed for Beijing, the week after a major terrorist attack called China's 9-11.

    So yeah, likely. Not 100%, but likely.
    I saw an interview tonight with Mary Schiavo, who knows marginally more about air crashes & airliners than either of us. When asked to speculate on the most likely explanation she said a stall, which has happened several times. She said if there was evidence of an explosion on the wreckage a terrorist bomb was most likely.

    We won't know until the wreckage is found, so 'I don't know' is the appropriate response at this point.

    These last few days are probably giving sleepless nights to every anti-terrorism official around the region and around the world. An airliner, very possibly just got blown to smithereens at 31000 ft, and no one knows how. No one knows whom. Gives a new dimension of uncertainty now to everything in air transport safety.
    Strange days indeed.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Stop trolling. You've been one of the one throwing up reasons why this is unlikely. Thus far they have all been dealt with.
    Trolling? Dealt with? I was responding to your comment about their European destination increasing the likelihood of refugee status.

    1. We have no idea if they were actually going to Europe.
    2. It did not make it anymore likely for them to be refugees since terrorists could benefit from the method to get on a plane to Beijing. without getting proper visas.
    3. They bought the tickets at the same time and same place and yet went to two different destinations. Why? If they were going their separate ways why travel together and risk increasing the chances of discovery?

    None of the above supports the refugee theory. It fails to discount it, but it also fails to make it more plausible.

    They need to identify these individuals and then piece together their family backgrounds. Then we will know more.

    Here's another thing to consider: if they were migrants why hasn't the families come forward?

    I would say that these questions make criminal activity or terrorism more likely than simple immigration.



    I saw an interview tonight with Mary Schiavo, who knows marginally more about air crashes & airliners than either of us. When asked to speculate on the most likely explanation she said a stall, which has happened several times. She said if there was evidence of an explosion on the wreckage a terrorist bomb was most likely.

    We won't know until the wreckage is found, so 'I don't know' is the appropriate response at this point.



    Strange days indeed.
    The problem here is precisely the lack of a wreckage, which in turn suggests an in flight breakup, in turn suggesting terrorism. However unless there is a break through on the passport leads I doubt we will get anywhere further with speculation. They really need to find that black box.

    Another thing that's probably on the minds of Chinese officials: maybe there has not been a claim of responsibility because the planned attacks are not yet completed. That's a remote, but truly troubling possibility.

  15. #45
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    trolling , how dare you comment on b/f's forum citanon , him being the master and font of knowledge of all he surveys ,he should soon be elevated to rochen owner n super mod now minnie is away ,,,,,,, damned inconsiderate of you ol chap ,

    right back on topic , the oil slicks have been shown via lab not to be from the aircraft ??? its oil used by ships , one of my opinions is correct ?


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