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U.S. Economy Added Only 74,000 Jobs in December

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  • #31
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    snapper,

    try not to lower the overall tone of the debate by putting forth this type of insinuation. the overall assumptions of both keynesian and austrian and monetary theories of economics all derive from basic accepted economic theory and maths; it's not marxist economics.
    Which is why I put 'free market' in inverted commas to indicate that I meant the term to be understood in a loose manner.

    So to continue the subject;

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    That's what the data say.
    This I fear is where the statistical misinterpretation comes in; the assumption is that whatever the statistic say must be right. But the falling labour participation rate feeds into the falling U3 and U6 numbers; less people are counted so less appear to unemployed. In reality though less people are working. Nearly 92m of US citizens are now not working but because they are not claiming unemployment benefits or whatever an increasingly small number are counted as 'unemployed'. This is what I mean when I say the statistics misrepresent the truth. There are lies, damn lies and statistics and sitting behind the pedantic interpretation of the statistics blinds those who still believe government statistic into thinking things are getting better.

    Comment


    • #32
      Actually, there were 171.7 million people not working last year (314.2 mn population, minus 142.4 mn civilian employment). More to the point, there were 100.8 million people of working age who were not employed, and 88.3 mn of working age not in the labor force.

      The statistics represent a “truth” with which you disagree. That’s not the same as the statistics misrepresenting the truth.
      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

      Comment


      • #33
        Why 36% of working age are not seeking jobs?
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
          Why 36% of working age are not seeking jobs?
          Going back to school/college?

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Julie View Post
            Going back to school/college?
            That's a helluva percentage of students.
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              That's a helluva percentage of students.
              Aint it. This debate is arguing the correct amount of unemployed, taking into consideration of the baby boomers leaving the work force, people giving up and going back to college.

              I would like to get above all of that and find out WHY there are so many millions of people out of work, and not only the unemployed, but the UNDER employed.

              The figure is still extremely high no matter how many times you beat it with a bat. The economy is supposed to be doing much better, and the unemployed and underemployed is not reflecting that. So what's up?

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Julie View Post
                Aint it. This debate is arguing the correct amount of unemployed, taking into consideration of the baby boomers leaving the work force, people giving up and going back to college.

                I would like to get above all of that and find out WHY there are so many millions of people out of work, and not only the unemployed, but the UNDER employed.

                The figure is still extremely high no matter how many times you beat it with a bat. The economy is supposed to be doing much better, and the unemployed and underemployed is not reflecting that. So what's up?


                The economy is doing much better,but no where near the hey day before the fall. Wall Street rebounded nicely but too few jobs trickled down to the middle class and that is where the hold up is. There are many job openings for part time minimum wage and some very specific better paying jobs that few if any qualify for, but the want adds are nearly devoid of basic family wage jobs.
                Removing a single turd from the cesspool doesn't make any difference.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by bonehead View Post
                  The economy is doing much better,but no where near the hey day before the fall. Wall Street rebounded nicely but too few jobs trickled down to the middle class and that is where the hold up is. There are many job openings for part time minimum wage and some very specific better paying jobs that few if any qualify for, but the want adds are nearly devoid of basic family wage jobs.
                  Thank you.

                  Comment


                  • #39


                    Why has the stock market hit record highs? $75-85bn per month?
                    Attached Files
                    Last edited by snapper; 20 Jan 14,, 21:15.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      in a nutshell, globalization and technology are long-term drivers of reduced employment.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        in a nutshell, globalization and technology are long-term drivers of reduced employment.
                        It's overhype, you had tech progress and globalization for a while, it took recession to reduce the employment.
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          doktor,

                          It's overhype, you had tech progress and globalization for a while, it took recession to reduce the employment.
                          well, no. the labor force participation rate has been declining in the US for the past 15 years+, concurrent with the expansion of the global economy. it's certainly no secret that the recession accelerated this process- it didn't start it. moreover, in the US the baby-boom generation has started its retirement process as well.
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Here are some excerpts from the Forbes article:

                            ...the “official” unemployment rate doesn’t count discouraged workers who have settled for part-time jobs or have given up looking altogether. Tracking those individuals, under what’s called the “U-6″ rate, gives a very different measure of the nation’s unemployment rate: 14.3%.

                            ...One reason that the U-6 rate remains so high is because it’s so hard to get back into the workforce once you’ve been out for months — whether perception or reality, many employers see these would-be workers as damaged goods.

                            Essentially, the longer you’re without a job, the less likely it is that you’ll get called back for an interview — by the eighth month of unemployment, the callback rate falls by about 45%.
                            Those are the ones jumping off your labor force bridge Snapper. And there are lots of them that are not being considered or tracked.

                            Why The 'Real' Unemployment Rate Is Higher Than You Think - Forbes

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              In nine recessions over the past 65 years, unemployment returned to the previous peak after an average of 8.67 quarters (ranging from 5 to 13 in 1980 and 1991-93, respectively).

                              The average fall from peak to trough was 1.66%, ranging from -0.44% (1971) to -4.51% (1954).

                              Those were recessions; what has happened since 2008 is not.

                              After 28 quarters, employment is still below the peak.
                              From peak to trough was a fall of 5.4%.

                              That was no recession, and to expect the recovery to follow any of the post-WWII patterns is simply denying reality. We have exactly one (US) example that might apply, and it isn’t a very good one: the 1930s.
                              Trust me?
                              I'm an economist!

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by DOR View Post

                                That was no recession, and to expect the recovery to follow any of the post-WWII patterns is simply denying reality. We have exactly one (US) example that might apply, and it isn’t a very good one: the 1930s.
                                Where once again a Democrat president used massive federal stimulus, currency manipulation and wrong headed thinking about how to stimulate an economy to prolong the pain and delay the recovery.....

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