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Top Hezbollah commander assassinated

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Josh View Post
    To the first point, I see no reason for the US to get involved in Syria, and since its a three year old war I doubt the current Iranian deal has much to do with it.

    To the latter, I'll agree that they would be much diminished without supplies moved through Syria but we'll agree to disagree over 'big trouble' and 'not firmly in charge of anything'.
    You are thinking about Syria, hezbollah and Iran as separate issues where as we should really be thinking of them as sub campaigns of a struggle to shape the region. Certainly the other side thinks so and so should we. Our main goal is to disarm Iran diplomatically without large scale military conflict, but to do so we have to shape geopolitical topography to create a situation where Iran has more to gain from acquiescence to international demands. Thus we must exert pressure on all sides.

    A related aim is to prevent ascendency of hardcore Sunni militants, which can only be done by strengthening progressive sunni forces.

    A third strategic aim is to shape the reemergence of "ottoman" power in the middle east and its relations with our traditional allies in the house of saud.

    These three strategic imperatives intersect for us in the nexus of the Syrian conflict. We would be fools to neglect it

    Scratch that, we have been acting like fools with our indecision and inaction..

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Dreadnought View Post
      So far, the best explanation I have seen is that Hezbollah is blaming the Israeli's in order not to stoke the already raging fire that is the Shiites and Sunni divides in Syria and Lebannon right now.

      Easier to blame the Israelis and cover your ass and keep aquaintences then invite more attacks upon yourself by stoking the sectarian divide.

      IMO, They asked for this and are now reaping what the sow, something they didnt consider when rushing to Assads defence.
      DE,

      They as much as admitted it was a Sunni group at his funeral - dropping references to Israel in favour of 'the same group responsible for the car bombs'. I think their supporters.....and anyone else even sorta paying attention....will get the reference.
      sigpic

      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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      • #18
        Just to throw this out there- possible internal re-organization. In militant/ criminal groups chaos offers many paths for advancement.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by zraver View Post
          Just to throw this out there- possible internal re-organization. In militant/ criminal groups chaos offers many paths for advancement.
          Possible, but in this case the most obvious answer seems the most likely - two lots of bad guys going at it.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • #20
            The timing of the attack suggests somebody wanted to derail the negotiations in Geneva. Glad they didn't succeed.

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            • #21
              By the attack I mean the one on the Iranian embassy, my bad. Hezbollah so far seems to be showing a great deal of restraint; not much sign of retaliation for either event.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Sitting Bull View Post
                The timing of the attack suggests somebody wanted to derail the negotiations in Geneva. Glad they didn't succeed.
                I think you are a bit off the mark there Chief. My bet is that the motivation was a lot more local than that.
                sigpic

                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sitting Bull View Post
                  By the attack I mean the one on the Iranian embassy, my bad. Hezbollah so far seems to be showing a great deal of restraint; not much sign of retaliation for either event.
                  They are just trying to space out the fight and deal with one thing at a time.

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