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  • Ukraine in Turmoil After Leaders Reject Major E.U. Deal

    Ukraine in Turmoil After Leaders Reject Major E.U. Deal
    November 26, 2013


    An estimated 100,000 Ukrainians protested in Kyiv on Sunday. Protests continue across the country.

    KYIV, Ukraine — Yuri V. Lutsenko, a onetime field commander of Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, looked out across the tens of thousands of people who gathered on Sunday to protest the government’s decision to back away from a far-reaching political and trade deal with the European Union. Standing onstage under an ash-streaked sky, Mr. Lutsenko felt a powerful sense of déjà vu — and a deep need to apologize. “I am sure that every person who stood at the glorious Orange Square nine years ago has to do the same,” he told the crowd. “I would like you to accept my personal apologies for what was not finished.” For the second time in a decade, Ukraine is in turmoil, with tens of thousands of protesters in recent days loudly demanding that the country shake off its post-Soviet identity and move once and for all into the orbit of a more prosperous Europe.

    They exploded in anger last week when their leaders, buckling under pressure from Moscow, said they would walk away from a deal that many here, especially the young, see as a vital step in escaping the clutches of the Kremlin and joining fellow ex-satellite countries of Eastern Europe on a path to modernization and greater wealth. At stake here is not just the fate of a free-trade pact but whether the hardball tactics of Russia, willing to use every bit of economic muscle — including trade threats and its stranglehold on energy supplies — to exert blunt force in negotiations, will prevail over the national aspirations of millions of people.

    With street protests continuing in Kiev and cities across the country on Tuesday, there was a distinct sense that Ukraine has been here before. More than 20 years after declaring its freedom and hastening the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country of 46 million remains caught between Russia and the West, its aspirations for independence upended by the rivalries of bigger powers, its domestic politics riven by corruption, violence, revenge and ethno-regional strife, its people impoverished and fearful about the future.

    Many Ukrainians say they regard the country’s political leaders since the end of the Soviet era to be a collective failure. At the same time, they say they recognize the constraints of being almost entirely dependent on Russia for energy, especially natural gas for heat, as well as the historic burden of being home to vital Russian military assets, including major installations for its Black Sea fleet. “The foundation has to be completely changed in our country, so that it would not remain a post-Soviet barrack temporarily repainted in yellow and blue,” Mr. Lutsenko told the crowd, referring to the colors of the country’s flag. “We have to understand that not only the president has to be changed but the entire system.” In contrast with 2004, they say they are focused entirely on raising standards of living, and putting Ukraine on track to become a member of the European Union so they could obtain the benefits that they see are now enjoyed by neighboring Poland and by the fellow ex-Soviet republics in the Baltics. “I want to live in a country where the law is not just a word in the dictionary,” said Kateryna Zhemchuzhnykova, 25, a journalist who has been leading protests in the city of Donetsk in the traditionally Russia-friendly eastern half of Ukraine. She said she wanted a country “where people are free to tell what they think; to do what they want; to go where they dream.”

    Ukraine’s domestic politics are deeply complicated by ethno-cultural, religious and linguistic divisions. The mostly Russian-speaking and Russian Orthodox eastern and southern sections of the country tend to favor close ties with Moscow. In the West, Ukrainian speakers predominate, the Ukrainian Catholic Church has many adherents and Russia is regarded with suspicion or even hostility. Taras Berezovets, a political consultant whose clients include members of Parliament, said expectations were raised by the president, partly with an eye to the 2015 election. “Yanukovich promised them something; he promised them Europe,” Mr. Berezovets said in an interview. European officials have said that Russia had threatened to retaliate with severe trade sanctions that would be particularly devastating in eastern Ukraine, a main base of political support for Mr. Yanukovich. Ukraine is already facing a severe economic crisis and has been in talks for months about securing a loan package from the International Monetary Fund.

    “He can either become a hero, or become the biggest loser in Ukrainian history,” Mr. Berezovets said. “Whatever happens, the only man that people hold responsible for failure is Yanukovich himself. He has personalized European integration to that extent.”
    Source: NY Times

    Russia has long viewed Ukraine as 'Little Russia'. We have been a Russian appendage for millennia and we keep falling further behind. It is time for a new path.
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  • #2
    Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
    Source: NY Times

    Russia has long viewed Ukraine as 'Little Russia'. We have been a Russian appendage for millennia and we keep falling further behind. It is time for a new path.
    Well union of Ukraine and Russia was for about 300 years when Krushev gifted Crimea to Ukraine in the 80s.
    The reality is a little different.
    I view Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus as one country more or less that splits apart every thousand years and then re-amalgamates.
    Happened before mind you. Kiev was the capital of Kievan Rus for the duration if its more or less union when all those countries were one for a while. Then they split apart into duchies and were either gobbled up by stronger players from within like Moscow or without like Pol-Lith.

    Capital moved from Novgorod to Kiev to Vladimir to Moscow very fluid if you take the 'millennial' approach you are espousing.
    If you go back longer to tribal days it also gives some interesting perspectives underneath sort of but the movement of people never stops.

    I think they will chose either fta-Eu or Cu-Russia the problem is not economic ramifications but cultural after.
    My general feeling is Ukraine needs to hit rock bottom like Russia in the 90s to go fully broke and write off any debt to start fresh.
    What happened is people got used to coping in a semi-insolvent economy that has a hard time gathering capital internally to create new surplus. Lots of laws need to be thrown out but they won't until rock bottom is hit and bureaucrats are shed along with most compliance.

    EuroMaidan rallies in Ukraine (live updates)

    I find it very ironic that Ukraine is attempting to go the EU route when it is obvious that EU is rotten to the core and the bureaucratic overhead is exponentially growing. It is almost like trying to get into a club where all the members are miserable and yet it is painted well from the outside and as soon as you go in your problems will go away. Magical credit lines will open and all will be set well with fairness and honesty without you having to work for it at all. Except none of it will happen even if Ukraine gets into the Eurozone look at Romania and Bulgaria did it solve their problems? not really.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

    Comment


    • #3
      It appears there is an issue to determine what Ukrainians want in the first place. 20, 30, or even 100 thousand people rioting means nothing for a country the size of Ukraine.

      What re the polls saying? Finally is there a referendum on the table to decide this issue?

      Reading back what I wrote I sound naive, I know.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • #4
        Ukraine Offers New Deadline for EU Deal | Business | The Moscow Times

        Comment


        • #5
          In Ukraine, Protests Highlight 'Generational Rift'
          November 28, 2013



          Rallies against Kyiv's decision to shelve a landmark pact with the European Union are gaining momentum in Ukraine, with students emerging as the backbone of the protests. Students have been skipping classes to protest President Viktor Yanukovych's abrupt policy U-turn away from Europe in favor of closer ties with Russia. The decision came just days before he was expected to sign the pact at a summit in Vilnius on November 29. Tens of thousands of students across the country rallied on November 27 for a seventh consecutive day, banging on drums, chanting pro-European slogans, and calling on Yanukovych to reverse course and sign the pact.

          In the western city of Lviv, a center of the protests, as many as 30,000 students took to the streets on November 26. Borys Poshivak, a 23-year-old agriculture student and one of the leaders of the Lviv rallies, said that students feel European. "They want Ukraine to become a full-fledged member of the European family. They simply want to live with dignity."

          The demonstrations have brought to the forefront a new generation of protesters that grew up in an independent Ukraine and have faint -- if any -- memories of the Soviet Union. They see themselves as Europeans, they are disillusioned with politics as usual, and they feel increasingly at odds with establishment opposition figures. "We are now witnessing a generational rift in Ukraine," says Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Lviv-based historian. "Young Ukrainians resemble young Italians, Czech, Poles, or Germans more than they resemble Ukrainians who are 50 and older. This generation has a stronger desire for European integration and fewer regional divides than their seniors."

          The rallies in the Ukrainian capital have seen the largest turnout since the 2004 Orange Revolution that ousted Yanukovych after an electoral victory denounced as rigged. They are particularly poignant since they are taking place on the anniversary of the Orange Revolution and on the same Independence Square, Maidan Nezalezhnosti, where the events unfolded nine years ago. The fresh wave of protests has been dubbed "EuroMaidan."
          Source
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          • #6
            Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
            Looking at photos in posts #1 and #4, hardly more then 15% of the people are voters.

            Just saying.
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • #7
              More than 60% of Ukrainians favor a shift to the West and eventual membership in the European Union. Russia however, could not countenance losing Ukraine. Putin threatened and blackmailed, and Yanukovich caved. It is a crushing disappointment to millions of Ukrainians, especially younger ones, who hoped for a future in a country energized by Western investment and anchored by values of transparency, pluralism, rule of law and judicial independence. In hindsight, this is also a failure of the EU which seemed to have no clue how far Putin would go to force Ukraine back into the Russian sphere. EU guarantees to offset Putin's economic blackmail measures would probably have been enough to change this dismal outcome.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                Looking at photos in posts #1 and #4, hardly more then 15% of the people are voters.

                Just saying.
                They are the future. Just saying.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
                  They are the future. Just saying.
                  Yet, it is not up to them to bear the burden of a revolution today.

                  In some countries it's even illegal.

                  Not to be taken wrongly, I don't have a stance in all this.

                  Myself I am euro-pessimist to a degree, but Ukraine under Russian only umbrella is not the best choice for now, IMHO.
                  No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                  To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                    but Ukraine under Russian only umbrella is not the best choice for now, IMHO.
                    In my opinion it is (for now), cause it means economic continuity. No spikes in prices. People with jobs, keep their jobs.

                    Only the idealist are out on the street. The govt doesn't want to add anymore.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by winton View Post
                      In my opinion it is (for now), cause it means economic continuity. No spikes in prices. People with jobs, keep their jobs.
                      No spikes in jobs, no spikes in salaries...

                      Only the idealist are out on the street. The govt doesn't want to add anymore.
                      You do realize the opposition is on the streets.
                      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                        No spikes in jobs, no spikes in salaries...
                        but no bubble to pop.

                        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                        You do realize the opposition is on the streets.
                        They would be foolish not to take advantage of this political gift.

                        What the Ukraine needs is a welcoming and stable investment environment, more foreign direct investment. and joint ventures to access the technology it needs to develop their economy. It could achieve all these reforms and the bounty that comes with it without joining the EU.

                        Correct me if I'm wrong, but its awash with coal and other minerals and more arable land then you can poke a stick at..

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by winton View Post
                          but no bubble to pop.
                          You mean after they 'ate' their reserves?

                          They would be foolish not to take advantage of this political gift.
                          It's a big crossroad for any of the parties to even try to gain daily points.

                          What the Ukraine needs is a welcoming and stable investment environment, more foreign direct investment. and joint ventures to access the technology it needs to develop their economy. It could achieve all these reforms and the bounty that comes with it without joining the EU.
                          You took this from some book? Every country needs that.

                          Correct me if I'm wrong, but its awash with coal and other minerals and more arable land then you can poke a stick at..
                          They still lack efficient ways to make money out of it. Or to add value to the core product if you will.
                          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            You mean after they 'ate' their reserves?
                            what do you mean?

                            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            It's a big crossroad for any of the parties to even try to gain daily points.
                            Thats what opposition parties do. Its got nothing to do with ethics.

                            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            You took this from some book? Every country needs that.
                            I took it from singapore/china observation mostly, but its probably in some neo economics 201 book somewhere. Every country needs it you say, but not every country can pull it off. There are alot of political cost involved with implementing reforms such as these.

                            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                            They still lack efficient ways to make money out of it. Or to add value to the core product if you will.
                            Which is what the reforms are suppose to alleviate.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by winton View Post
                              What the Ukraine needs is a welcoming and stable investment environment, more foreign direct investment. and joint ventures to access the technology it needs to develop their economy. It could achieve all these reforms and the bounty that comes with it without joining the EU.
                              Doing nothing is not an option and will result in insolvency.

                              Western investment/increased trade will not occur under the present neo-Soviet system due to its high corruption. Signing the Association Agreement with the EU was considered a crucial initial step in the realignment/reformation of Ukrainian institutions. Realignment would certainly have resulted in short-term losses due to Russian vengeance, but opens the doors to far greater long-term economic/political/judicial potential and stability.

                              Putin will not stop the economic blackmail until Ukraine joins its Customs Union. Joining the Customs Union is no great bargain. Belarus has all but disappeared an an independent nation. And what is the benefit of trading with Kazakhstan rather than Germany or France? Economic alignment with Russia perhaps minimizes short-term losses, but virtually guarantees a long-term moribund economy and continued endemic corruption.

                              Note Even if Ukraine joins the Customs Union, Putin has said Russia will not renegotiate the obscenely oppressive Gazprom oil/gas contract which does not end until 2019. Ukraine currently hemorrhages ~$4 billion a year under this scheme (one of the highest fuel rates in the world) which is why Yulia Tymoshenko is currently incarcerated in Kharkiv.
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