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Thread: What if: GPS and all Western satellites are successfully neutralised

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Happened twice already. Two organization hit us and hit us bad.

    Ice Storm 98 by Mother Nature
    Black Out 2003 by Bad Luck
    The thing about the latter event is that the system actually worked the way it's supposed to. The grid did emergency load shedding to save itself to fight another day. Again, not a perfect system, but the fact that it all works together at all never ceases to amaze me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by desertswo View Post
    The thing about the latter event is that the system actually worked the way it's supposed to. The grid did emergency load shedding to save itself to fight another day. Again, not a perfect system, but the fact that it all works together at all never ceases to amaze me.
    That's me whenever on a train or in subway. So many humans in the process...
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by desertswo View Post
    You know, there is an OPLAN or CONPLAN on the shelf in the Pentagon for every eventuality. "Fidel dies and Cuba folds like a cheap camera?" There's a plan for that. They are written by the geographic or functional commanders, reviewed by the Joint Staff and the services, and approved by SECDEF. We take them out every two years to review and update them. For example, I read the version of the OPLAN for Iraq twice in three years. As you all know, it didn't go as planned, but that's why we have branches and sequels. The point of all this is that there are bright young minds who are paid to think of all of these horrible but nonetheless interesting scenarios and then write a plan for dealing with it. We even war game them in exercises like "Top Off" and "Eligible Receiver" with a different set of circumstances every year. You thought 9/11 was bad? Just think how bad it would have been had we not run that one past the supported command, the services, the FBI, etc., only a year or two before. Not the same scenario, but a mass terrorist attack on the homeland nonetheless, only in multiple cities. No response is perfect, and that certainly wasn't but it could have been a lot worse. We don't leave a whole lot to chance.
    australia has a similar process in place - referred to (prev} as the combat capability scenarios

    if the PM gets woken up at 2am because NZ has invaded Malaysia or "Kaznia" has decided to hold all westerners hostage in Fiji, the relevant CCS is trotted out as a baseline option. It's then modified on the fly to suit the evolving situation.

    Its designed to deal with the "Oh $h!t what do we do next" planning vacuums that happen if you're not switched on

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    yes but the doctrines that came after the end of the cold war and was predicated on precision bombing and RMA in communications are now useless. Your armies today would have to go back and relearn all the lessons learned in the cold war and start engaging in very expensive restocking cold war technology armaments.
    The West's sat-net is just one part of RMA. Locally, even at the operational level it wont necessarily be a crippling loss. Advances in other areas like FLIR, Radar, digitized battle management/IFF, etc still work better than anything anyone else has. Plus our commanders have real world experience in using all these systems in an integrated way.

    Finally, the main loss of capability will be remote sensing and real time communications between some theater assets and the theater commander and then back to CONUS and vice versa. No more BHO watching OBL get double tapped and seeing whats more than 400ish miles away starts to be a problem.

    However, something to be considered- if the US lost its constellation of early warning sats.......

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    Quote Originally Posted by desertswo View Post
    You know, there is an OPLAN or CONPLAN on the shelf in the Pentagon for every eventuality. "Fidel dies and Cuba folds like a cheap camera?" There's a plan for that. They are written by the geographic or functional commanders, reviewed by the Joint Staff and the services, and approved by SECDEF. We take them out every two years to review and update them. For example, I read the version of the OPLAN for Iraq twice in three years. As you all know, it didn't go as planned, but that's why we have branches and sequels. The point of all this is that there are bright young minds who are paid to think of all of these horrible but nonetheless interesting scenarios and then write a plan for dealing with it. We even war game them in exercises like "Top Off" and "Eligible Receiver" with a different set of circumstances every year. You thought 9/11 was bad? Just think how bad it would have been had we not run that one past the supported command, the services, the FBI, etc., only a year or two before. Not the same scenario, but a mass terrorist attack on the homeland nonetheless, only in multiple cities. No response is perfect, and that certainly wasn't but it could have been a lot worse. We don't leave a whole lot to chance.

    Every so often a tabloid will come out with a breathless article about--OMG--the US has a plan to invade Lichtenstein. Little to do people know we have a plan for invading-repelling every country in the world and what to do when we run out of paper clips.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    The West's sat-net is just one part of RMA. Locally, even at the operational level it wont necessarily be a crippling loss. Advances in other areas like FLIR, Radar, digitized battle management/IFF, etc still work better than anything anyone else has. Plus our commanders have real world experience in using all these systems in an integrated way.

    Finally, the main loss of capability will be remote sensing and real time communications between some theater assets and the theater commander and then back to CONUS and vice versa. No more BHO watching OBL get double tapped and seeing whats more than 400ish miles away starts to be a problem.

    However, something to be considered- if the US lost its constellation of early warning sats.......
    All that you talked about is contingent on one thing - availability of steady streaming power. What happens if batteries run out and the power systems are taken out? No recharging capability.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Every so often a tabloid will come out with a breathless article about--OMG--the US has a plan to invade Lichtenstein.
    Those bastids in Lichtenstein need their asses kicked and taught a lesson!
    “We had been hopelessly labouring to plough waste lands; to make nationality grow in a place full of the certainty of God… Among the tribes our creed could be only like the desert grass – a beautiful swift seeming of spring; which, after a day’s heat, fell dusty.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Those bastids in Lichtenstein need their asses kicked and taught a lesson!
    Yeah, it's like people still get all hysterical about the fact that we had a pre-WWII war plan to take on Great Britain, when we also had Plan Orange to take on Japan, and heaven forbid we forget Plan Green to whack Mexico and finish the job we started in 1847. It was a very different world back then, and the term "peer competitor" covered more than a few bases.

    Meanwhile, there is presently one for what happens if Mexico implodes and foments a mass migration/humanitarian disaster. It used to involve shooting and all like that. Today I think we call it the Dream Act and we give free college tuition to such "refugees."
    Last edited by desertswo; 29 Nov 13, at 16:20.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Every so often a tabloid will come out with a breathless article about--OMG--the US has a plan to invade Lichtenstein. Little to do people know we have a plan for invading-repelling every country in the world and what to do when we run out of paper clips.
    But Canada and Macedonia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    But Canada and Macedonia
    Yeah, them too, and no, I'm not joking. Obviously most of these things will ever come to pass, but we never expected to be bombing the Chinese embassy in Belgrade either, and yet, we did. There's a plan for everything. Some of course are more defined than others and include a TOE. The one for taking on the Soviets across the Fulda Gap for instance. Iraq was also such a plan. Korea. You can probably look at a globe and guess the ones that would have a TOE. They are pretty obvious. The one that I always hated reading was the SIOP. It's real doomsday sh1t and pretty dreary reading. One generally doesn't sleep well after a day of slogging through that one.

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    If I look at how GPS works, then you could make a local GPS with the right kind of equipment on UAV's.

    The UAV's would be a target, but it would save a lot of time looking for the enemy.

    Large scale anti GPS jamming would be more difficult to deal with, if an enemy does this right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FJV View Post
    If I look at how GPS works, then you could make a local GPS with the right kind of equipment on UAV's.

    The UAV's would be a target, but it would save a lot of time looking for the enemy.

    Large scale anti GPS jamming would be more difficult to deal with, if an enemy does this right.
    "Lucy, you have some 'splainin' to do!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy View Post
    Let's just say China (for example) is capable of disabling US satellites in a near future engagement.
    GPS wouldn't be the problem in this scenario. Having SATCOM taken out could become a problem.

    Quote Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy View Post
    Never mind civilians driving off a cliff because their Tom Tom went tits up
    The latest Tom Toms, much like most relatively current civilian geolocation receivers, will actually make do with GLONASS only.

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    Localized GPS

    Quote Originally Posted by desertswo View Post
    "Lucy, you have some 'splainin' to do!"


    At about 2:30 in the video, think smaller spheres, because UAV's aren't as high up as sattellites. (the video is a bit meh)

    Drawback is you cover a smaller area with UAV's, but you only really need to cover the conflict area instead of the entire world, so that reduces the demand on such a system.

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    Local GPS is like semiauto AK

    A while back I heard of trying to replace satellites with blimps for some local comms and positioning systems.Don't know what came of the project.
    Last edited by Mihais; 29 Nov 13, at 21:25.
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