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  • #16
    Carter Doctrine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
      In short, this situation is a good time for you to brush up on Gen. Sundarji and Rie's nuclear doctrine and apply those principles.
      Both Rie and Sundarji would prevent the situation from occurring. Don't let the Saudis get Pakistani nukes. Get her friends in Moscow and Beijing to clamp down hard on Islamabad ... and to get Dehli to step up her preparation. That's the other thing left unsaid, does Pakistan have nukes to spare? Looking at India, not a single one.

      Edit: Come to think of it, if I were in Tehran, I would tell the Saudis. Go for it. You pissed off the Americans, alienate the Chinese, aimed Moscow's nuclear barrel right down Saudi throats, become a target for active Israeli bombing. Turn my two biggest rivals in the region, the KSA and Israel, against each other ... and the withdrawl of American support/protection on one of them and the Pakistanis can't replace it ... yeah, go for it.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 07 Nov 13,, 21:59.

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      • #18
        BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons: US senator demands Obama action

        A senior US senator, citing our Newsnight report concerning intelligence that Pakistan had made nuclear weapons that might be delivered to Saudi Arabia, has written to President Obama demanding he take action.

        Senator Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, says that while efforts have gone into stopping the Iranian atomic programme "it is clear that must also be expended to ensure that other nations in the Persian Gulf do not themselves develop a nuclear weapons capability".

        The senator has asked the president to share the administration's assessment of possible nuclear co-operation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as well as to halt talks about US-Saudi co-operation on the transfer of nuclear technology.

        Earlier this month we reported on Newsnight that intelligence was circulating in Nato that Pakistani nuclear weapons made on behalf of Saudi Arabia were ready for delivery in the event that Iran crossed the nuclear threshold or the kingdom faced some other dire emergency.

        The Pakistan foreign minister denied our report, saying it was "baseless", but a statement from Saudi Arabia stopped short of denial, referring instead to the dangers of proliferation in the Middle East.

        Mr Markey, in his letter to President Obama, notes senior Pakistani officials have also denied the story, but registers his concern that Saudi Arabia may have been pursuing a nuclear route outside its own territory to avoid the kind of scrutiny that Iran has received.

        In recent years there have been consistent statements by key Saudi figures that they would acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did. These have included the king himself, as well as other ministers.

        Newsnight sought and received guidance from well-placed Pakistani sources about the nature of their co-operation with Saudi Arabia, and they confirmed there was an understanding between the countries to provide nuclear weapons to the kingdom in extremis.

        Those who doubt this allegation of a highly secret, probably unwritten deal argue that the international costs to operating as a nuclear cash-and-carry for the Saudis would far outweigh any possible benefits.

        Given that Pakistan denies it has readied warheads for the Saudis, but few underestimate the seriousness with which the Saudi royal family view the possible advent of an Iranian bomb, there are more questions now being asked about whether the kingdom might be using other tracks to develop atomic weapons in the longer term.

        Mr Markey writes to the president: "I strongly urge you to cease negotiations to allow Saudi Arabia to acquire US or US-origin nuclear technology."

        This follows reports that US officials had been in discussion in May about an agreement to share such know-how.

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        • #19
          A more realistic assessment of any potential 'Saudi-Pakistan deal on nuclear weapons':

          ... Saudi Arabia has backed and at times helped fund Pakistan’s nuclear program, according to proliferation experts. (The program became public in 1998.) That doesn’t mean that acquiring a nuclear bomb is as easy as shipping it across the Arabian Sea. Saudi, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, would risk global reproach, possible sanctions and the launch of a regional arms race if it had its own bomb. A more likely scenario, says Gary Samore, Obama’s former arms-control adviser and director for research at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, would be some sort of pact that could see Pakistani nuclear weapons moved to Saudi Arabia. “Even if U.S. diplomacy fails and Iran gets nuclear weapons, Pakistan isn’t just going to hand over nuclear weapons; it’s more likely that Pakistan would station forces in Saudi, and those forces will have the ability to deploy nuclear weapons from Saudi soil” — much like American troops are able to do in Europe, without contravening those country’s nonproliferation treaties.

          Still, such a pact would have significant drawbacks, points out Gause. Pakistan may not be willing to attack its neighbor Iran for fear of repercussions, and it would be a death knell for the U.S.-Saudi friendship. “In terms of putting at risk relations with the United States, a Pakistani nuclear pact would be the most provocative Saudi foreign policy decision since the 1973 oil embargo,” says Gause. That might serve Saudi pique at being sidelined by its old ally America as that ally pursues a lasting deal with Iran, but it would ultimately be self-defeating. Better for Saudi in the long run would be a deal that brings Iran closer to the U.S., and further from a bomb.

          Read more: Iran Deal Leads Saudi Arabia to Consider Nuclear Options | TIME.com Iran Deal Leads Saudi Arabia to Consider Nuclear Options | TIME.com
          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
            it’s more likely that Pakistan would station forces in Saudi, and those forces will have the ability to deploy nuclear weapons from Saudi soil”
            Even that looks very unlikely. Why would Saudi Arabia swap US nuclear umbrella for Pakistan's?

            Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
            much like American troops are able to do in Europe, without contravening those country’s nonproliferation treaties.
            Or look it from a different side? Why would Pakistan risk confrontation with Iran over Saudi Arabia? US and Europe had a common enemy. I don't see how even a nuclear Iran is an enemy of Pakistan.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by ajhax View Post
              Or look it from a different side? Why would Pakistan risk confrontation with Iran over Saudi Arabia? US and Europe had a common enemy. I don't see how even a nuclear Iran is an enemy of Pakistan.
              I agree that 'a nuclear Iran is not an enemy of Pakistan', and Pakistan has very little to gain from antagonizing Iran. The author of the piece above does point out that, "Pakistan may not be willing to attack its neighbor Iran for fear of repercussions ...".

              Even a perceived 'pro-Saudi' Pakistani political leadership (the PML-N) has continued to engage with Iran over the IP-Pipeline, despite the threat of US sanctions (forget Saudi displeasure), so I highly doubt that the Pakistani political or military leadership is interested in pursuing policies that will alienate it regionally and internationally. Pakistan already has a hostile India and Afghanistan on her Eastern and Western borders, and continues to face international resistance in joining the global civilian nuclear marketplace - the Saudis can offer nothing to Pakistan that can justify the addition of an openly hostile Iran to the mix, along with continued international isolation on the basis of 'nuclear weapons proliferation'.
              Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 28 Nov 13,, 01:00.
              Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
              https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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              • #22
                Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.

                Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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                • #23
                  It's some Experience to make WTF\

                  Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own - Telegraph
                  sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                    Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.
                    Aldrin,

                    The puzzle has its roots in the 80s. A lot of water has flown since then. The Saudi money for the Pak nukes had Israel in the picture. Iran was not that important in their geaopolitical nuclear radar. With the perceived mutual threat from Israel - Pak fear of an Israeli/Joint Indo-Israeli strike on its nuclear installations and Saudi fear of a nuclear Israel and the perceived immunity that Pak deployed nukes on Saudi soil would provide. A lot has changed since then, with the Saudi's now firmly under the US nuclear umbrella, Israel and the Saudis jointly sharing fear of a nuclear Iran and Pakistan nowehere close to what its standing and prestige was then, in the ME, with the war against the Soviet's going full on.
                    sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by lemontree View Post
                      Why would Pakistan make make itself a target for nuclear attack by delpoying nukes in KSA? ....because if, as AM suggests that Pakistani arty units would be stationed in KSA to handle the weapon, then Pakistan has made itself a nuclear target of the country with whom KSA is going to war.
                      You misunderstood my position - my personal view is that Pakistan will not provide nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, either directly or through a 'Pakistan operated nuclear umbrella'. The negative repercussions from such a move far outweigh any possible benefit the Saudis can provide. The Saudi-Pakistan relationship, currently, does not have any major tangible initiatives (read, Saudi economic offsets to assist a pro-Saudi political party running the GoP) on the table. The Saudi-Iranian relationship has been quite tense (over the Iranian nuclear weapons issue) for many years now, and if the Saudis really considered a 'Pakistani Nuclear Umbrella' or 'Pakistan sale of nuclear weapons' a feasible option to keep on the table, the Saudi-Pakistan relationship would not be at the humdrum levels it is currently. As I pointed out earlier, the fact that even the PMLN is continuing to pursue the IP-Pipeline points to a reduction in Saudi influence over Pakistan, and the Saudis themselves don't appear to be very interested in engaging Pakistan in any major initiatives elsewhere to strengthen their influence.

                      If the current dynamic, as I understand it, is reflective of a policy change on the part of the Pakistani political and military establishment, to balance Pakistan's relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia and avoid upsetting either party in any major way (Pakistan has major economic and security interests , in both countries, at stake) , then I think it is an extremely welcome, even if belated, adjustment of Pakistani foreign policy (post Iranian Revolution).
                      Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 30 Nov 13,, 16:17.
                      Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                      https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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                      • #26
                        this action from Saudi Arabia is to balance Iran actually. If one time Iran gathers nuclear power Saudi should have also according to balance of power.

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                        • #27
                          How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

                          Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by n21 View Post
                            How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

                            Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.
                            agree

                            Me also think They don't have a Platform to launch the Nuke devices ..They have Nukes But they don't have LAUNCHERS ..There nukes doesn't fit their Missiles
                            sajeevpearlj.blogspot.com

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                            • #29
                              The Swiss found copies of the CHAGAI-I blueprints and they would fit inside of Paksitani missiles. However, to date, we have not seen fuse testing ... and to be honest, we have not seen any from India also. Doesn't mean that neither country has not done it but open source info to date reveals nothing.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by n21 View Post
                                How come the Saudi's are so sure that Pakistani's nukes will work? Pakistan is still to test it's plutonium devices which can be mounted on the missiles.

                                Dont think Saudis are stupid enough to base their survival on devices, which may or may not work.
                                At least Pakistan carried out tests (failed or not) over a decade ago and obtained critical data from those tests - the Iranians haven't even done that. So, if it came down to two largely 'unproven' nuclear weapons designs (between Iran and Pakistan), Pakistan would still be miles ahead.
                                Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 31 Dec 13,, 15:44.
                                Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                                https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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