Plausible things Taiwan's allies might do to assist if China invades

[cdude]

As I stated, you're not as smart as you think you are. Look at the ship building output. What are the numbers in 10 years time? Now, add in the ships that are due for retirement.

yeah, coz China will use ONLY ships to defend her seas.

[Officer of Engineers]

yeah, coz China will use ONLY ships to defend her seas.

Here are your words

With one billion people living on it and the largest economy (I doubt China will invade Taiwan before she takes over the US in the GDP race), China needs no freaking allies.

So, you're telling me that China needs no ships to invade Taiwan in 10 years time.

[cdude]

Here are your words

So, you're telling me that China needs no ships to invade Taiwan in 10 years time.

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. Will be even less likely in 10 years time. Ships are not built to invade Taiwan. They are built to change the cost/benefit equation of US interventions and hence change the cost/benefit equations for Taiwan independence.

[zraver]

mith,



unlikely. the best that would likely be offered is basing for the americans. if china chooses to strike those bases-- and what you're talking about is really japan-- then maybe the japanese would get slotted in.

Not so sure I agree. (and most of my post is aimed at the fanbois)

If you apply a Mahanian logic to the problem then China has to worry about Japan, South Korea, Veitnam and India to varying degrees. A China too distracted by Taiwan invites problems in other areas. The PLAN/PLAAF has to exist as a credible threat everywhere, or China loses everywhere. To take on Taiwan/US, China needs to be strong enough to avoid defeat at the hands of Taiwan, US and Japan and hold off South Korea (from getting froggy with the Norks), Vietnam and India (or restrain Pakistan). In addition, any war basically requires China to consign its merchant fleet to internment.

In addition, Taiwan's physical location poses a serious problem for China. The island (as long as it has a functioning ADA net creates a giant shadow to its east where the PLAAF is a non-player leaving any PLAN/PLANAF assets unsupported. In other words, all China will really be able to put east of Taiwan is submarines and maybe AsBM. Still a threat, but a much less complex one than the situation out from behind Taiwan's shadow.

US carriers east of Taiwan can fight over the Western part of Taiwan and deny China the ability to support an invasion. In addition US subs can launch devastating missile strikes on Chinese air fields.... Physically the US can crush China. Hence all the talk about Chinese hackers, a-sat weapons etc as people try and work out to get around these US advantages, or workout how China thinks she will get around them.

[Officer of Engineers]

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. Will be even less likely in 10 years time. Ships are not built to invade Taiwan. They are built to change the cost/benefit equation of US interventions and hence change the cost/benefit equations for Taiwan independence.

Here's your problem. The cost-benefit equations works both ways. In 10 years time, the PLAAF and the PLAN still can't prevent Taiwan independence.

[astralis]

z,

A China too distracted by Taiwan invites problems in other areas. The PLAN/PLAAF has to exist as a credible threat everywhere, or China loses everywhere.

true and yet not. it's unlikely that vietnam will choose a PRC-taiwan fight to pile on. same with india for that matter. could it happen? yes, but china's highest priority will still be taiwan. it's not quite the same situation the US faces today. the closest analogue is the US civil war-- france takes advantage of US distraction to screw with mexico. US does nothing until after the war, because highest priority is beating the confederacy.

CCP knows it probably won't get ousted if they lose a few mountains to india. CCP knows for SURE they're dead meat if they fight taiwan and taiwan ends up cementing independence.

but in reality mostly all the neighbors will really really hope that the war doesn't go nuclear with US involvement and will be busy battening down the hatches. the entire east asian economy is probably going haywire at this time too, with shipping lanes closed off and massive disruption.

the island (as long as it has a functioning ADA net creates a giant shadow to its east where the PLAAF is a non-player leaving any PLAN/PLANAF assets unsupported.

frankly the PLAAF's role is to deter the americans. if it looks like the americans won't come in then you'll see the PLAAF in action against taiwan, although they're not big on CAS or even bombardment. it'll likely be a missile bombardment until taiwan runs out; the chinese won't have very much left themselves, either.

In other words, all China will really be able to put east of Taiwan is submarines and maybe AsBM.

china probably won't want to venture there anyways for fear of american involvement.

US carriers east of Taiwan can fight over the Western part of Taiwan and deny China the ability to support an invasion.

that's the general idea. it gets incrementally harder every year, though.

In addition US subs can launch devastating missile strikes on Chinese air fields....

super-target rich environment- more targets than munitions. chinese hardening will also force the US to expend more munitions. that is, if the US decides to attack the mainland at all.

everyone realizes that this is another level of escalation. that would depend on the scenario, i suppose; if china pre-emptively strikes kadena, for instance, then all bets are off. if the chinese actively try to avoid fighting the US then it'll be a harder political decision for the US to jump to attacking the mainland.

but anyway, my original point is that short of an outright chinese attack on japanese/australian/korean soil, most of the US allies in the region will probably not actively participate in the conflict. given the absolute nightmare that a war would be, i'm not sure the US would WANT them to. at most, ask the allies to take up the domestic and other deterrent slack; allow US forces to operate on their soil (not a small thing: they open themselves up for attack that way). they have to LIVE with china AFTER the war ends, after all.

by the way, this doesn't take away from OoE's point that china needs friends. a war would be extremely, extremely disruptive to an export-reliant china, and it's almost certain that even a very short war would mean china runs out of strategic materials extremely quickly. good luck getting oil from Iran/Africa/ME when the USN is busy cutting off the choke points at the Strait of Malacca or Strait of Hormuz. china better hope she didn't piss off russia just before all this went down.

[Officer of Engineers]

I was thinking even more active than that. The ML attacking Taiwan is the perfect time for Vietnam to take the Spratleys and for Japan to take the Daiyou. Both the PLAN and the RoCN would be in no shape to challenge either navy after their little spat.

And let's not forget China's only two real allies. Would you put it pass Baby Kim not to attack Seoul in a ML-Taiwan dust up? Pakistan would have to man up even more knowing that neither of her patrons are coming to her rescue anytime soon.

[tbm3fan]

The only event that will trigger a Chinese invasion would be a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. I doubt it will happen in 10 years, and by then China will have a great ally to protect her seas, it's called PLA Navy.

Then can I assume you will be leaving and heading back to China to enlist in the Navy and make sure the goal is achieved. You might even post from there.

[zraver]

z,



true and yet not. it's unlikely that vietnam will choose a PRC-taiwan fight to pile on. same with india for that matter. could it happen? yes, but china's highest priority will still be taiwan. it's not quite the same situation the US faces today. the closest analogue is the US civil war-- france takes advantage of US distraction to screw with mexico. US does nothing until after the war, because highest priority is beating the confederacy.

CCP knows it probably won't get ousted if they lose a few mountains to india. CCP knows for SURE they're dead meat if they fight taiwan and taiwan ends up cementing independence.

but in reality mostly all the neighbors will really really hope that the war doesn't go nuclear with US involvement and will be busy battening down the hatches. the entire east asian economy is probably going haywire at this time too, with shipping lanes closed off and massive disruption.

et al, I don't disagree with you points, I only contend that China has to leave enough combat power aside to maintain local balance and to deter adventurism. This is a drain on what China can put into a fight against Taiwan, and the longer Taiwan holds out the more China faces pressure from these other areas. Nothing encourages the little guys t0 take a swing like the big guys choking under pressure. Recent history is full of such examples.

[Skywatcher]

Here's your problem. The cost-benefit equations works both ways. In 10 years time, the PLAAF and the PLAN still can't prevent Taiwan independence.

China's military modernization seems to have killed political will for independence, though.

[Blademaster]

China's military modernization seems to have killed political will for independence, though.

No it is not the military modernization. It is the burgeoning economical relationship between Taiwan and China that is killing the political will for independence. Since the Great Recession, they have received more economic benefits with China than with USA. No way they are going to upset that apple cart.... and China won't so it is not pushing for reunification hard, preferably to take the long view.

[zraver]

No it is not the military modernization. It is the burgeoning economical relationship between Taiwan and China that is killing the political will for independence. Since the Great Recession, they have received more economic benefits with China than with USA. No way they are going to upset that apple cart.... and China won't so it is not pushing for reunification hard, preferably to take the long view.

But if the Chinese economy nose dives, watch both the independence movement and the nationalist middle kingdom attitudes resurface with a vengeance.

[Skywatcher]

But if the Chinese economy nose dives, watch both the independence movement and the nationalist middle kingdom attitudes resurface with a vengeance.

Taiwanese politicians in that case will be spending the next twenty years digging themselves out of the wreckage then.

[cdude]

Here's your problem. The cost-benefit equations works both ways. In 10 years time, the PLAAF and the PLAN still can't prevent Taiwan independence.

What do you mean "prevent"? If the China can do enough damage to Taiwan, they would not go ahead and declare independence. It's a pretty simple calculation actually.

Are you saying in 10 years time, China will not be able to do what she can do now?

And don't forget nearly 1 million Taiwanese people live in mainland now, going to be more.

[cdude]

But if the Chinese economy nose dives, watch both the independence movement and the nationalist middle kingdom attitudes resurface with a vengeance.

When was the last time that nationalist middle kingdom torched Taiwanese businesses?