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Thread: US - Iran: Peace talks possible

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    And China and India and Pakistan, what's your point?

    And we listed that help. France but that was well before the NPT was even thought of.

    I want Iran to honour the NPT, ie give up her nukes or leave the NPT, and not use the NPT to get her nukes.
    Ok then you have to give something in return. You want Iran to honor the NPT? You have two choices: bomb Iran and risk a bigger conflagration or give some honey/gifts in exchange for what you want.

  2. #32
    Officer of Engineers
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    A third choice - embargo. South Africa got hers lifted precisely because she gave up her nukes. The "honey" as you call it was nuclear technological trade, even high tech nuclear trade, in exchange for no nukes.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    A third choice - embargo. South Africa got hers lifted precisely because she gave up her nukes. The "honey" as you call it was nuclear technological trade, even high tech nuclear trade, in exchange for no nukes.
    Embargo is already in place and Iran will bear through it. No way high tech nuclear trade will happen because Israel will hinder that effort. It is what we call a mirage gift or Lucy's Ball Gift to Charlie.

  4. #34
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    Embargo is already in place and Iran will bear through it. No way high tech nuclear trade will happen because Israel will hinder that effort. It is what we call a mirage gift or Lucy's Ball Gift to Charlie.
    But as we notice Iran wants those sanctions lifted. The young and businessmen are being choked by economy stagnation. And the US has others they can add to it if need be. Yes, they might be able to survive but at a cost. More Iranians leaving Iran to seek better oppertunity, their currency having to be supported by the government, inflation on foodstuffs etc.

    IMO, If the US wanted to increase the sanctions its only going to be a matter of years before someone hits the boiling point.

    Couple all of that with Irans backing Assads regime with cash and mercenaries and the future doesnt look to bright for them until they start being upfront with the UN etc.

    IMO, With what is happening in Syria, Putins credibility is on the line and I seriously doubt he is going to want to play "big brother" for the Iranians at the UN meetings coming very shortly. He will no doubt be disappointed if he even tries.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 23 Sep 13, at 21:58.
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  5. #35
    Officer of Engineers
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    Embargo is already in place and Iran will bear through it.
    I'm of the opinion that ever since Qom, Iran has the confidence that she has a working design. The efforts now is prevent her from a test and an arsenal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    No way high tech nuclear trade will happen because Israel will hinder that effort. It is what we call a mirage gift or Lucy's Ball Gift to Charlie.
    Since when did Israel got a say in Russian and Chinese nuclear policies?

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I'm of the opinion that ever since Qom, Iran has the confidence that she has a working design. The efforts now is prevent her from a test and an arsenal.
    But you want Iran to give up the designs and everything and start from scratch if she opts out of NPT. Not gonna happen.

    Since when did Israel got a say in Russian and Chinese nuclear policies?
    through America pressure and lobbyist efforts with Congress.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    But as we notice Iran wants those sanctions lifted. The young and businessmen are being choked by economy stagnation. And the US has others they can add to it if need be. Yes, they might be able to survive but at a cost. More Iranians leaving Iran to seek better oppertunity, their currency having to be supported by the government, inflation on foodstuffs etc.

    IMO, If the US wanted to increase the sanctions its only going to be a matter of years before someone hits the boiling point.

    Couple all of that with Irans backing Assads regime with cash and mercenaries and the future doesnt look to bright for them until they start being upfront with the UN etc.

    IMO, With what is happening in Syria, Putins credibility is on the line and I seriously doubt he is going to want to play "big brother" for the Iranians at the UN meetings coming very shortly. He will no doubt be disappointed if he even tries.
    You tried that with Cuba and see where it got you. Embargo only takes you so far and soon after that it plateaus and people will learn how to live with the embargo and make new opportunities if they can.

    China may not decide to enforce embargo and when US forces leave Afghanistan, Iran can trade through Afghanistan and through Central Asia states and China.

  8. #38
    Officer of Engineers
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    But you want Iran to give up the designs and everything and start from scratch if she opts out of NPT. Not gonna happen.
    What are you talking about? South Africa, the Ukraine, Georgia, and the Central Asian Republics did not lose one iota of their nuclear weapons knowledge. Neither did Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    through America pressure and lobbyist efforts with Congress.
    How did that turn out with China and Pakistan (pre-Chinese signature to the NPT) and AQ Khan?

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    What are you talking about? South Africa, the Ukraine, Georgia, and the Central Asian Republics did not lose one iota of their nuclear weapons knowledge. Neither did Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, etc.
    I remember one post made by you where you demanded Iran to turn over all blueprints, designs, hard drive, etc.

    How did that turn out with China and Pakistan (pre-Chinese signature to the NPT) and AQ Khan?
    Pakistan was not high on Israel's list but Iran was.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    I remember one post made by you where you demanded Iran to turn over all blueprints, designs, hard drive, etc.
    As South Africa did to the IAEA as part of their compliance to prove that their nuclear weapons program is dead ... but that does not mean their scientists cannot duplicate the effort. In the case of the former USSR, Russia acknowledges that all nuclear weapons and their associated materials have been transferred back to Russia.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    Pakistan was not high on Israel's list but Iran was.
    AQ Khan gave Iran her nuke.

  11. #41
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blademaster View Post
    You tried that with Cuba and see where it got you. Embargo only takes you so far and soon after that it plateaus and people will learn how to live with the embargo and make new opportunities if they can.

    China may not decide to enforce embargo and when US forces leave Afghanistan, Iran can trade through Afghanistan and through Central Asia states and China.
    Had the US been forced too Cuba would/could have been blockaded into submission. Would it take years? Yes it would but the USN also forced The Soviets to rethink their game when the blockades took place. Plus the US removed the missles from Turkey.

    The US has absolutely nothing to loose with Iran where as their economy already has shown big losses and so long as that oil and banking embargo remain they are going to find it hard pressed to move through afghanistan especially after Assads backing.

    China does not necessarily need Iran, they have Russia, the Saudi's etc for their oil purchases the only reason they are going with Iran is because of the price they are paying which is probably pennies on the dollar. So it still bears the signs of sanctions.

    The US can still tighten the screws more in the banking sector etc to the dismay of Irans economy.

    They may not admit it but it dominates every talk about bettering relations with the US and they want them removed. The US isint going to do it now that the pressure is on at home in Iran with its new president until its satisfied. And that satifaction will no doubt as well be needed by the UK and the Israeli's.

    You are correct in trading through China but it will come with a cost. Better relations with the US which is what China wants. The Iranians figure little into that picture in the grand scheme of things.

    Especially when China wants the US to intervene with Japan over control of the islands that both claim to be theirs.

    That little item doesnt include the Iranians at all nor will it benefit their problems at home.

    China would be smart to deal with Japan over the islands and have their own home waters oil supply which they believe lies off those islands instead of having to import oil from the Iranians. Compared to the US, relations with Iran means little if they can secure their own supply of oil.

    If that happens then the Iranians have a much bigger problem in oil sales currency and the temperature at home gets hotter.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 23 Sep 13, at 23:21.
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  12. #42
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minskaya View Post
    This is the same Hassan Rouhani who previously had served as Iran's chief negotiator (October 2003 - August 2005) on nuclear issues. Clearly, he engaged in deceit.
    Which was the time Khatami was in charge, a moderate and the best person to deal with.

    What did the west achieve with him ? nothing.

    The hardliners said Khatami was useless and Iran went hardline. The talks were stuck from 2005 onwards, no progress since other than loads of hot air.

    2005-2013 was enough time to see that direction was not working for the Iranians either. Recent elections produced a fair result, the hardliners lost.

    Now what is the west going to do about that ? are they going to play the same cards that got us no where up to 2005 or is there some fresh thinking here. Both sides have nothing to show for yet.

    Will american domestic politics trump national interests or not. That is the question.

    The clerics are going nowhere. Rouhani won't be ready to do anything till at least next summer, he's still new at the job.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Sep 13, at 23:37.

  13. #43
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Which was the time Khatami was in charge, a moderate and the best person to deal with.

    What did the west achieve with him ? nothing.

    The hardliners said Khatami was useless and Iran went hardline. The talks were stuck from 2005 onwards, no progress since other than loads of hot air.

    Recent elections produced a fair result, the hardliners lost.

    Now what is the west going to do about that ? are they going to play the same cards that got us no where up to 2005 or is there some fresh thinking here.

    Bottom line : is american domestic politics going to trump national interests or not. That is the question.

    The clerics are going nowhere whether anybody likes it or not.
    To ask another question, what will Iran achieve without concrete concessions? Nothing so the sanctions stay and perhaps get increased and that still doesnt take the Israeli's strike nor our own out of the equasion.

    IMO, If the Iranians see that no progress is being made and may perhaps worsen then they might start looking in the leaderships direction for the cause of failure and a dead economy.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 23 Sep 13, at 23:38.
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  14. #44
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    "We have time and again said that in no circumstances would we seek any weapon of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, nor will we ever."

    Bold face lie right off the bat.
    Heh, lot hinges on that word seek.

    But if we ask the question, do they have one or not ? the answer is in the negative.

    The west kept pushing them, they pushed back. Always threatening to do something but never quite getting there.

    Given how long they've been at it and what they've achieved, i wonder if they ever will

  15. #45
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    To ask another question, what will Iran achieve without concrete concessions? Nothing so the sanctions stay and perhaps get increased
    Better offer more than peanuts this time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    and that still doesnt take the Israeli's strike nor our own out of the equasion.
    James Acton explained this 'zone of immunity' business a lot better than what i've read so far.

    it's to do with Arak. Arak is a heavy water reactor. Heavy water reactors produce plutonium. You can't hit a heavy water reactor once it goes into production beause it will be an environmental catastrophe. So you have to hit it before it goes on line. Any concrete signs to get Arak ready will be apparent months earlier.

    All the iranians have to do is drag their feet on Arak and your Israeli attack gets put off..

    Only actors that matter here are US & Iran. Reconciling all the baggage since the late 70s.

    Am an advocate of better US-Iran relations as this would do a great deal to improve stability in the ME

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    IMO, If the Iranians see that no progress is being made and may perhaps worsen then they might start looking in the leaderships direction for the cause of failure and a dead economy.
    They already have. So what is america going to do ?

    Take advantage of a new situation or rehash the old & tired in which case we put this off for yet another decade with yet more bla bla.

    Obama has a lot on his plate. He does not care about re-election, but he cares about legacy. That's about the same constraint if not more.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Sep 13, at 23:59.

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