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  • #46
    Originally posted by Loke View Post
    People do make mistakes, all the time.
    The process to commit a weapon is very different between manned and UAS - there is a completely different situational awareness issue as well - and no ground operator can compensate for that facility - hence why the targeting and mission sets for UAS are necessarily different at this point in time - BUT, people need to look at UAS as a companion system rather than as a competing system

    I've been exposed to remote vehicle programs as well and they are definitely not exmplars of what we can do. they still can't negotiate complex terrain and random obstructions with consistency


    Originally posted by Loke View Post
    When we reach the point where AIs can be shown to make significantly fewer mistakes than humans, perhaps that's when we might start to see a transition?

    I think it is becoming more about emotions than anything else. We may start to see cars driving themselves within 10 years (it's already happening in the labs). I think it may be easier for lay people to accept independent UCAVs once their own cars are doing the driving.
    Its not about emotion, its about the fact that GC or RPAS managed UAS does not have the same SA as a manned asset and that the AI is nowhere near the capability to discriminate between human targets in complex battlespace.

    eg they struggle with achieving critical test reqs in doing SAR - and thats a benign environment - releasing weapons on top of that need to discriminate between targets and make a judgement on surrounding areas is just not within the province of current UAS smarts. The problems I saw in UAV conferences 7 years ago in the UK are still the same problems we face today

    can UAS kill targets? sure, can they be used with a high degree of confidence in complex space? no, not by a golden mile.

    All the tests reinforce that. Hell, they're still having problems with UAV's getting comms disconnected and then failing to follow the default instructions to come home safely

    They're a long way away from being ready for prime time irrespective of what the geeks think.

    This isn't new tech, we've been using UAS in modern combat environments for the last 50 years, first the US, then the Israelis, and now the US again - and the US is on 5th and 6th gen UAS - and we're still not ready for using them in free-play
    Last edited by gf0012-aust; 02 Sep 13,, 12:19. Reason: typo
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    • #47
      Originally posted by Loke View Post
      People do make mistakes, all the time.
      You know the old saying... It's human to make mistakes, but for a total mess you need a computer.

      When we reach the point where AIs can be shown to make significantly fewer mistakes than humans, perhaps that's when we might start to see a transition?
      Machines are good in repeating preset things, since the best plan wont survive the first contact, it will take some time for the input process only.

      I think it is becoming more about emotions than anything else. We may start to see cars driving themselves within 10 years (it's already happening in the labs). I think it may be easier for lay people to accept independent UCAVs once their own cars are doing the driving.
      Call me a dino, but I wont let the car drive me anywhere. Humans are dangerous enough. It is about the control, not the emotions, otherwise I wouldn't let other human drive me as well. Heck, I still wouldn't get a car with automatic gear shift.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Call me a dino, but I wont let the car drive me anywhere. Humans are dangerous enough. It is about the control, not the emotions, otherwise I wouldn't let other human drive me as well. Heck, I still wouldn't get a car with automatic gear shift.
        Doktor, slightly off-topic but do you know your general aviation plane can land itself?
        It's called a CAT IIIb landing. Watch from 1:30.

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        • #49
          Chanjyj,

          I am fully aware, but that plane has pilots. And I also think Chogy had something to say about this ability when the Korean jet crashed some time ago.
          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Doktor View Post
            You know the old saying... It's human to make mistakes, but for a total mess you need a computer.


            Machines are good in repeating preset things, since the best plan wont survive the first contact, it will take some time for the input process only.


            Call me a dino, but I wont let the car drive me anywhere. Humans are dangerous enough. It is about the control, not the emotions, otherwise I wouldn't let other human drive me as well. Heck, I still wouldn't get a car with automatic gear shift.
            Couple of things here. First, never underestimate the power of people being able to totally screw things up. We have done it before multiple times and are more than capable of doing it again. Secondly, A car is meant to be driven...not the other way around. That is the whole feakin point of driving. If you are not in control you may as well be riding the bus.
            Secondly, I am really not a fan of automatic transmissions either but they do come in handy when most of your driving is in stop and go bumper to bumper driving....especially in hilly areas. The other time is when teaching the next generation to drive. I would come unglued at the sound of one of my kids grinding MY gears. In the U.S the clutch is burning out. You really have to shop around to even find a cheap econobox with a manual transmission. The joy of dropping the clutch at take off and choosing your gear whenever you want/running the gearbox is being lost. That is sad in my book.
            Removing a single turd from the cesspool doesn't make any difference.

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            • #51
              Cars are already en route to autodrive...they can already park themselves, to some degree. And as mentioned, there are already systems that have been tested that'll maintain safe distance and steer properly. And how many cars already have rear-view cameras (soon to be mandatory in the US) and small radar sets, removing half the effort of driving (looking)?

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              • #52
                Originally posted by bonehead View Post
                Couple of things here. First, never underestimate the power of people being able to totally screw things up. We have done it before multiple times and are more than capable of doing it again. Secondly, A car is meant to be driven...not the other way around. That is the whole feakin point of driving. If you are not in control you may as well be riding the bus.
                Secondly, I am really not a fan of automatic transmissions either but they do come in handy when most of your driving is in stop and go bumper to bumper driving....especially in hilly areas. The other time is when teaching the next generation to drive. I would come unglued at the sound of one of my kids grinding MY gears. In the U.S the clutch is burning out. You really have to shop around to even find a cheap econobox with a manual transmission. The joy of dropping the clutch at take off and choosing your gear whenever you want/running the gearbox is being lost. That is sad in my book.
                Come the revolution when I get my 'Vette with the old school aspirated 454 and the six-speed manual, I'll demonstrate some dropping of the clutch. Just waiting for the last larval human in my home to vacate the premises. ;)

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                  airforces based on parity of numbers died in 1999.
                  from that point on its been about capability in the "value for money" equation
                  Sir, can you elaborate on this? What happened in 1999?
                  "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by gunnut View Post
                    Sir, can you elaborate on this? What happened in 1999?
                    The combination of network centric capabilities, C4ISR capabilities, and AESA radars is my guess.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by desertswo View Post
                      Come the revolution when I get my 'Vette with the old school aspirated 454 and the six-speed manual, I'll demonstrate some dropping of the clutch. Just waiting for the last larval human in my home to vacate the premises. ;)
                      My uncles were muscle car affectionados back in the early 70's. I owed many a brown striped underwear to them. Good to know you have a dream. I hope it works out for you in due time.
                      Removing a single turd from the cesspool doesn't make any difference.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by desertswo View Post
                        Come the revolution when I get my 'Vette with the old school aspirated 454 and the six-speed manual, I'll demonstrate some dropping of the clutch. Just waiting for the last larval human in my home to vacate the premises. ;)
                        I lucked into a '66 with a 327. A 70-72 big block is still on my dream sheet, though.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Jimmy View Post
                          I lucked into a '66 with a 327. A 70-72 big block is still on my dream sheet, though.
                          They brought that 454 back a couple of years ago. My father owned a '71 Malibu SS with that beast in it. I'm not buying a new one, but I find them for sale all the time, so I'm counting my pennies.

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Blademaster View Post
                            The combination of network centric capabilities, C4ISR capabilities, and AESA radars is my guess.
                            AESA radars may be a component, but it's not the concept. It's about integrating data across different spheres of battle; information flow; communication.

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                            • #59
                              1999 seems to late of a year for the flow. At least to me.
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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