Obama Will "...calibrate..." Russian/U.S. Relationship

[S2]

Presidential Press ConferenceTranscript-WAPO Aug. 9, 2013

"And, you know, I think the latest episode is just one more in a number of emerging differences that we've seen over the last several months around Syria, around human rights issues where, you know, it is probably appropriate for us to take a pause, reassess where it is that Russia's going, what our core interests are, and calibrate the relationship so that we're doing things that are good for the United States and, hopefully, good for Russia as well but recognizing that there are just going to be some differences, and we're not going to be able to completely disguise them. And that's OK. Keep in mind that although I'm not attending the summit, I'll still be going to St. Petersburg because Russia's hosting the G-20.


That's important business in terms of our economy and our jobs and all the issues that are of concern to Americans.


I know that one question that's been raised is, how do we approach the Olympics? I want to just make very clear right now, I do not think it's appropriate to boycott the Olympics. We've got a bunch of Americans out there who are training hard, who are doing everything they can to succeed. Nobody's more offended than me by some of the anti-gay and lesbian legislation that you've been seeing in Russia, but as I said just this week, I've spoken out against that not just with respect to Russia, but a number of other countries where we continue to do work with them, but we have a strong disagreement on this issue. And one of the things I'm really looking forward to is maybe some gay and lesbian athletes bringing home the gold or silver or bronze, which I think would go a long way in rejecting the kind of attitudes that we're seeing there. And if Russia doesn't have gay or lesbian athletes, then that would probably make their team weaker.

Keep in mind that, you know, our decision to not participate in the summit was not simply around Mr. Snowden, it had to do with the fact that, frankly, on a whole range of issues where we think we can make some progress, Russia has not moved. And so we don't consider that strictly punitive. We're going to assess where the relationship can advance U.S. interests and increase peace and stability and prosperity around the world. Where it can, we're going to keep on working with them, where we have differences, we're going to say so clearly. And my hope is that, over time, Mr. Putin and Russia recognize that rather than a zero-sum competition, in fact, if the two countries are working together, we can probably advance the betterment of both peoples."

There's some real muscle here. Could Obama waffle and tapdance any more than this?

Make no mistake, Putin really does have more fun.

[TopHatter]

There's some real muscle here. Could Obama waffle and tapdance any more than this?

Make no mistake, Putin really does have more fun.

Well first he "reset" our relations. Now he's going "calibrate" our relations. I wonder what's next.

Remember Khrushchev verbally smacking around JFK like he was a little boy?

Yeah, Santayana would be proud.

[astralis]

Remember Khrushchev verbally smacking around JFK like he was a little boy?

but in the end, it was Khrushchev whom backed down from the Cuban Missile Crisis, whom got embarrassed at home and abroad, and ultimately got deposed.

i don't mind putin dancing about like a clown if this using snowden is the most he can do.

obama, to put it charitably, is not the strongest leader around but OTOH if the most putin can do is imitate Chavez, i'm not too worried.

[desertswo]

Well first he "reset" our relations. Now he's going "calibrate" our relations. I wonder what's next.

Remember Khrushchev verbally smacking around JFK like he was a little boy?

Yeah, Santayana would be proud.

Shhhhhhhhhh!!!! He can hear you!

[Mihais]

but in the end, it was Khrushchev whom backed down from the Cuban Missile Crisis, whom got embarrassed at home and abroad, and ultimately got deposed.

i don't mind putin dancing about like a clown if this using snowden is the most he can do.

obama, to put it charitably, is not the strongest leader around but OTOH if the most putin can do is imitate Chavez, i'm not too worried.

Your loyalty is admirable(or the political police is getting trigger happy these days ),but the problem is Snowden is just the tip of the iceberg.Putin has used well fewer cards,while Obama has wasted his.And the bigger problem is we're a living the rather sad times of seeing a Russian autocrat being morally right on many issues,while US establishment,of whom Obama is the most proeminent, is dead wrong.

[astralis]

mihais,

Putin has used well fewer cards,while Obama has wasted his.And the bigger problem is we're a living the rather sad times of seeing a Russian autocrat being morally right on many issues,while US establishment,of whom Obama is the most proeminent, is dead wrong.

i fail to see this. how is russia significantly stronger vis-a-vis the US now then where she was in 2009?

frankly snowden landing in putin's lap doesn't really change the strategic calculus. russia remains a highly corrupt, oil-dependent nation with a massive demographic problem.

putin's cards are so much crappier than obama's, i don't see how him playing his cards well (and i don't think putin has) means anything in the short...or medium...or long-term.

[Zinja]

Presidential Press ConferenceTranscript-WAPO Aug. 9, 2013

And one of the things I'm really looking forward to is maybe some gay and lesbian athletes bringing home the gold or silver or bronze, which I think would go a long way in rejecting the kind of attitudes that we're seeing there. And if Russia doesn't have gay or lesbian athletes, then that would probably make their team weaker.

This is just a red herring of a bruised ego because someone is not bowing to his agenda. No way has Putin said he is against gays and lesbians being doctors, astronauts, engineers and athletes even. Many heterosexuals have accomplished much in life but how come it has never been turned into a celebration of sexual orientation prowess? The problem with grand agenda people is that they see the whole world revolving around their agenda, apparently humanity has not been able to live without it. Isn't it ironic that people are calling to boycott the olympics for the gay and lesbians but no one has been making noise about the thousands dying in Syria from Russian munitions . Butcher the Syrians, we will try and have a conference sometime next year over a cup of tea and expensive wine. But forbid a certain sexual orientation that is against your culture and (with the majority of your population agreeing with you),................... the world comes to an end! Oh please!

[astralis]

zinja,

really-- official discrimination and state-condoned violence against gay people is just "not bowing" to a gay agenda?

there's a LOT of things wrong with russia when it comes to basic respect of human rights, and while i don't view LGBT rights as foremost among them, i'm glad when there's attention focused at all. "injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

[Zinja]

zinja,

really-- official discrimination and state-condoned violence against gay people is just "not bowing" to a gay agenda?
"

I am against state condoned violence anywhere, if that is what the passed legislature says then absolutely that's wrong but I would welcome a link that says to that effect. However, I would challenge your assertion of 'official descrimination'. Russia's descrimination against gays & lesbians (as long as they do not advocate violence or physical harm) is no different to America's descrimination against polygamy, incest & bestiality. When America hosted the Winter Olympics in 2002 when the majority was still against same sex no one spoke of boycotting America. Now because the American constitution has okayd it now suddenly everyone who doesn't agree should be boycotted? The whole world should change its mind because America has done so? Now Putin is a personification of Hitler - really ? This is the sort of thing that gets under people's noses from other countries.

zinja,
there's a LOT of things wrong with russia when it comes to basic respect of human rights, and while i don't view LGBT rights as foremost among them"

That's my point. But there are people who think that the LGBT issue is a game stopper literally. With all the media coverage of the ravages in Syria, wouldn't you have thought that its a no brainer that Russia should be taken to task for its role in Syria? Apparently not to some people. To them the more pressing issue is the LGBT agenda. It's really annoying.

[astralis]

I am against state condoned violence anywhere, if that is what the passed legislature says then absolutely that's wrong but I would welcome a link that says to that effect.

russian police standby while gangs with the blessing of the Orthodox church routinely beat on gay rights protesters.

moreover russian legislature just passed a law outlawing "gay propaganda", with "propaganda" being defined by the state.

this is rather worse than whatever america had. this is false equivalence.

With all the media coverage of the ravages in Syria, wouldn't you have thought that its a no brainer that Russia should be taken to task for its role in Syria? Apparently not to some people. To them the more pressing issue is the LGBT agenda. It's really annoying.

are you telling me the US -hasn't- taken Russia to task over Syria? of course the US has.

we're talking about the recent raised profile of Russian LGBT abuse in american media and culture, not on US policy. and as far as the former is concerned, any public acknowledgement of russian human rights abuses is better than nothing, because that's what you'd get otherwise.

[NUS]

russian police standby while gangs with the blessing of the Orthodox church routinely beat on gay rights protesters.

And you, of course have miltiple examples of such "routine"? Or we should take your word as granted?

moreover russian legislature just passed a law outlawing "gay propaganda", with "propaganda" being defined by the state.

Gay propaganda among children. Even if your media does not mention the bold part, you should.

[Mihais]

Not a bad routine,in many cases.Some folks really can't be talked out stupidity and are to old to be taught common sense.

Astralis,Russia always had internal problems wrt economy.They are at least taking steps to increase the real,productive part of theirs relative to the resource based part.Although there is nothing wrong with any sort of money.About demography,they have an increase of the birthrate.And that is among real Russians,not the muslim population.The trend may vary,but the key idea is they have admitted the problem and resolve it the correct way:they encourage procreation,not immigration.They are unique in this regard,AFAIK.And they are likely to wonder in a few decades where are Germans or the Dutch.Or the WASPs.On a side,whatever ''oppresion'' the gays face in Russia is a part of this larger agenda.

Since you chose 2009,you've got to be kidding me.US has lost the whole ME,no matter who wins in the various struggles there.Russia may lose only Bashar,at worst.Iraq is at best a battleground between the Iranians and yourselves.You are out of Central Asia,incidentally another bonanza.Russia is still there.The prospect for conflict with China is a theoretical exercise on their part.Not so for your allies or yourselves.Russia really has nothing to do but grow richer and more influent.US has to bother quite a bit to keep what it has.

[cyppok]

mihais,



i fail to see this. how is russia significantly stronger vis-a-vis the US now then where she was in 2009?

frankly snowden landing in putin's lap doesn't really change the strategic calculus. russia remains a highly corrupt, oil-dependent nation with a massive demographic problem.

putin's cards are so much crappier than obama's, i don't see how him playing his cards well (and i don't think putin has) means anything in the short...or medium...or long-term.

Central Asian presence has less and less likelihood of happening (in the stans) after pullout.

Mid-East weight in conflict and bargaining resolutions weight wise shifted.

More self reliant after financial turmoil to rely on itself instead of IMF western institutions and the WBank.

Alternative way and point of development and influence offered to those whom wish it.

lots of things really. You could even say they could point to Lybia, Egypt, etc... and say told you so see what happens, you even got rid of Egyptian radicals because it didn't work out.
The problem here is credibility that will extend into the next decision wave of other countries which could be a short or long timeframe depending on who you see things in the future.

[astralis]

mihais,

Astralis,Russia always had internal problems wrt economy.They are at least taking steps to increase the real,productive part of theirs relative to the resource based part.

and tell me, how are they succeeding? in fact they've been busy little bees, locking up businessmen lately.

BBC News - Why Russia locks up so many entrepreneurs

About demography,they have an increase of the birthrate.And that is among real Russians,not the muslim population.

let's compare the US demographics and russian demographics over the long-term. their increase is still not to even replacement levels, let alone growth. dude, the optimistic estimate by the russians themselves show that they'll "only" fall from 148 million to 146 million people by 2040...while -median- estimates by the US show that the US will increase 70 million, or half the size of russia, in the next 30 years.

granted a fall of a 5-10 million (the median estimate for russia) is a lot better than losing 30-40 million, before the recent uptick in births.

US has lost the whole ME,no matter who wins in the various struggles there.Russia may lose only Bashar,at worst.Iraq is at best a battleground between the Iranians and yourselves.You are out of Central Asia,incidentally another bonanza.Russia is still there.

and NONE of this is because of russian actions.

moreover, they speak to -at most- a decline in US influence, not actual US freedom of movement or freedom of action. and given the costs of that influence-- the trillions of dollars spent in iraq, for instance-- i don't think we're necessarily the loser for not being there anymore. especially because american shale oil will heavily lessen the influence of ME oil.

it also doesn't speak to how russian influence or power has grown. russia still doesn't have a quarter of the influence that she did when the USSR was dying under brezhnev, let alone the "glory days" of khruschev.

The prospect for conflict with China is a theoretical exercise on their part.

lol, which is why russian commentators freak out about the chinese demographic threat to siberia.

Russia really has nothing to do but grow richer and more influent.US has to bother quite a bit to keep what it has.

russia has a smaller GDP than brazil or a small set of islands off the coast of france.

and it's only doing this good because oil prices are so high.

when oil prices fall, and they will certainly do so in the medium term with american shale-- bigger reserves and output than saudi arabia-- you let me know what a big strategic threat russia will be with the genius putin at the helm. especially when the russian population is going to shrink and age far faster than the US.

like i said, russia holds no good cards compared to the US, so it doesn't matter how well putin plays 'em. and he's not playing them all that well. that's why outside of the aging russian nuclear arsenal, no one in the US really cares about or fears russia anymore, one way or another. he's the equivalent of a Chavez on a somewhat bigger scale.

[Mihais]

Well,you asked about relative strenghts since 2009.About ME,there is no need for Russian actions.Your strategic mistakes are enough.That you might be better of without that hegemony is debatable.IMO you're likely to be better in the long run.But for now,it's still influence lost.

Russia may not increase demographically,but they'd still be Russians.Meanwhile your increase will turn you in a continental scale Yugoslavia.Your number may rise,but the quality of the population will decline.

The Russians may freak out about the Chinese migration,but they're also one decree away from solving the problem.They're not unique in freaking out.Every neighbour of China freaks out.But they're the least likely to be the target.
Aging nukes are geting replaced,so they'll be fine.If they're worried about something,that's Islam and the Turks&expansion into the Turkic states.In the end,that's why Syria matters for them.And Syria is the cause for the latest bout of bad blood

Wrt jailed bussinesmen there was a really funny thing.Putin asked their cases to be re-evaluated.My guess it will have limited effectivness,but still it's funny.

The big issue here is not that you worry or not about Russia.But finding a way to do bussines with them.US diplomacy speaking the way Obama does helps only idiot politicians in E Europe to beat the drum of Russophobia.We need to make peace with russia after 300 years of conflict and move to more urgent matters.
USSR and communism are dead or dying in Russia.I treat the 2 as separate entities.And that gives me some strange looks