Originally posted by chanjyj
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Originally posted by desertswo View PostThere is one minor fly in this particular brand of ointment. According to their constitution, they cannot build or deploy weapons systems with offensive capability. Ozumo as is comes uncomfortably close for many Japanese to being "unconstitutional." Put either Harriers or F-35Bs aboard and now you've really stepped over the line. One suspects that Japanese politics in the face of the Chinese threat could change rapidly, and perhaps even an amendment to their constitution may gain purchase.
My understanding is that Abe wants to amend the constitution in relation to Japan's military, though I confess to not knowing specifically what he is keen to change. Perhaps you could ask your Japanese friend if he knows. It might provide some context to the discussion.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Postdesertswo,
My understanding is that Abe wants to amend the constitution in relation to Japan's military, though I confess to not knowing specifically what he is keen to change. Perhaps you could ask your Japanese friend if he knows. It might provide some context to the discussion.
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Originally posted by Doktor View Post
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Originally posted by desertswo View PostEither way, my view is that China has awakened a sleeping neighbor, and man is he ever pissed off!
I mean, you've got an island nation that has a deep memory of being starved by powerful navy, most notably submarines. Did China think that Japan would just shrug and calmly accept that threat again?“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostYou have to wonder if China figured it would happen anyway and was willing to deal with it...or did the Department of Unintended Consequences bite them in the ass?
I mean, you've got an island nation that has a deep memory of being starved by powerful navy, most notably submarines. Did China think that Japan would just shrug and calmly accept that threat again?
And I doubt anyone in the PLAN is losing significant sleep over this (Japan doesn't have F-35B in the first place, assuming that the flight deck can take them).
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post....and probably sans years and years of technical problems.
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Originally posted by Skywatcher View PostIf it does somehow come down to an arms race, the Japanese can't win due to simple size.
And I doubt anyone in the PLAN is losing significant sleep over this (Japan doesn't have F-35B in the first place, assuming that the flight deck can take them).
In addition, for China to win, she not only has to be able to beat a US-Japanese alliance, but also sideline and keep Tiawan, South Korea, Australia, UK, Vietnam, Philippines, India and Malaysia out of the conflict and guard against their entry or use by USN/USAF.
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Originally posted by zraver View PostIn this case, Japan only needs to be combat effective enough to meet two objectives. 1 to keep the US as an ally, to be strong enough with US assistance to present the Chinese with a reasonable fear of defeat. This as US power ebbs, Japan has to take over a bigger share of the burden, but no where near all of it.
In addition, for China to win, she not only has to be able to beat a US-Japanese alliance, but also sideline and keep Tiawan, South Korea, Australia, UK, Vietnam, Philippines, India and Malaysia out of the conflict and guard against their entry or use by USN/USAF.
The Malaysians really don't have a beef with China, short of China actually seizing the Malaysian parts of the Spratlys.
Taiwan, as has been noted by others, didn't cooperate with Japan even at the height of the Cold War. They could try to jump in, but that would be highly dependent on whoever is in power in Taipei at the moment.
The Indians would have to be insane to march north into the Himalayas.
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Originally posted by zraver View PostI think budget would be a bigger hurdle, at least for the simplest conversion. Adding a ski-ramp and an angled flight deck for something that had jets that could land vertically seems technically pretty simple. Slightly more complex if they need arrestor gear and way more complex if they want a catapult capability.
They wouldn't go the CATOBAR route because as the old engineer here will tell you, it's more than "slightly" complex in terms of both time and funding constraints. It's also not necessary unless you were going to fly FA-18 Super-Hornets or F-35Cs, so why bother? More to the point, if they did go the CATOBAR route it would have to be EMALS and the power requirements for that may not be engineered for that sort of future growth.
The fact that it is a COGAG propulsion plant leads me to believe this to be the case. One does not want to go in and do a total re-engineering of the ship's electrical distribution system. We don't even do that, which is why for all their power, the electrical distribution capability in both our old CVs and the Nimitz CVNs is always on the ragged edge of failure. We design them to do one thing, and then pour another ten pounds of shit in the five pound electrical bag. You really have to stand watch as an Engineering Officer of the Watch (EOOW) in one of those things to appreciate the sort of white knuckle four to six hours that can be. It's not like combat, but I'd compare it to being an air traffic controller. You walk out of Engineering Central Control just spent. The Gerald R. Ford-class will be the first CV/CVN to be engineered with an electrical distribution system designed with way more power distribution capability than she could ever burn in a month of Sundays.
Meanwhile, the ski jump, while ugly and lubberly in my view, is nonetheless effective at increasing both the range and payload of the aircraft. It's relatively cheap and proven effective and that's what really matters.
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This doesn't bother me at all. China seems to be in a one nation arms race all by it's lonesome anyway, and if the US is going to be "pivoting" to the Pacific and getting involved in more conflicts there, we are going to need allies that have more than just rebuilt USCG cutters and ex-US Navy vessels. I have no expertise on Japan beyond what I read, but I'd have to imagine the memory of WW2 still casts a shadow there and it doesn't seem likely that they would revert to an expansionist state or depend on military force as the first line of diplomacy. The US expends quite a bit of money trying to maintain the peace and order over there- it is better if nations like Japan and S Korea start to pick up some of the burden.
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Originally posted by Maeda Toshiie View PostOne point.
Operating VTOL would require the flight deck to be capable of withstanding the heat from the engines. The F35B's heat is capable of giving problems even for the USN. I wonder if the Japanese has actually designed the deck for it (and would it be open information?)
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Originally posted by Skywatcher View PostTouche. Though the 22DDH's construction long preceded the current fracas.
Its not direct military confrontation but what China has to guard against. Of 100% of China's combat power, she has to leave X% to deal with a multitude of potential problems. China's strategic situation is not pretty, mostly because she sparked a regional arms race she can't hope to win. China has to be big enough to defeat any foe and ward off all the other possible foes and she isn't. Her neighbors only need to be strong enough to court the US as an ally and thus be able to pursue their own strategic goals at China's expense if China starts a war against any other neighbors.
Frankly, I can't think of any situation where the South Koreans would fight alongside the Japanese against China in the forseeable future.
The Malaysians really don't have a beef with China, short of China actually seizing the Malaysian parts of the Spratlys.
Taiwan, as has been noted by others, didn't cooperate with Japan even at the height of the Cold War. They could try to jump in, but that would be highly dependent on whoever is in power in Taipei at the moment.
The Indians would have to be insane to march north into the Himalayas.
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Japan by herself would not stand a chance against China. China got Japan by the balls, economically. If China decided to squeeze really hard, China could hurt Japan tremendously without firing a single shot.
China will not do this of course; The Chinese elite are mainly conserned about one thing; their own well-being. A major conflict with Japan would not help in that respect, on the contrary.
Diverting attention to (minor) external issues may ease internal tensions, and that's exactly what we are seeing with the Senkakus, Spratleys, etc. In other words, a lot of hot air and not much more than that, for the foreseeable future, at least not in relations to Japan. (minor players like Vietnam on the other hand, should be very concerned about their EEZ...)
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