gunnut,
depends on the situation, political will, and generals involved. it's true that having such immense material advantages is a huge thumb on the scale, but it wasn't inevitable that the North would win until after july 1863 IMO. the logistics, industrial advantage of the North only means something once you have a military leadership that can use it, and a political leadership that can persuade people that the war is worth fighting for.
for instance if McClellan had not picked up the Lost Orders in late 1862 he probably wouldn't have pulled off the stalemate he got at Antietam. at that point even a tactical defeat would have led the British to recognize the Confederacy, and thus end the war.
in an 1870s scenario the heavy thumb on the scale for the North isn't as heavy anymore.
A 10-year delay in the Civil War would have the body count skyrocket due to more advanced weaponry accessible by the south. The industrial might of the north would win in the end. The only difference was body count.
for instance if McClellan had not picked up the Lost Orders in late 1862 he probably wouldn't have pulled off the stalemate he got at Antietam. at that point even a tactical defeat would have led the British to recognize the Confederacy, and thus end the war.
in an 1870s scenario the heavy thumb on the scale for the North isn't as heavy anymore.
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