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Pakistan influence on Taliban commanders helped Afghan breakthrough

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  • Originally posted by antimony View Post
    Here we go again

    None of us can say for certain what the establishment did or not did. What we an say though is that we have not seen enough evidence. World of difference.
    Complete lack of credible evidence supporting allegations of complicity equates to exoneration - there is no other conclusion to arrive at here.
    Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
    https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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    • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
      The Afghan presidential elections, scheduled for April 2014, are wide open. We all remember how utterly rigged the last one was, but thankfully, Hamid Karzai cannot run for the office for a third time. So he’s touting his brother Qayum in his place. The problem is that Qayum does not garner the kind of Pakhtun support that Karzai has, and is not a winning horse.

      ..

      Let’s take the Taliban out of the equation for now. Afghanistan is a country fractured and divided into numerous groups, mostly on ethnic lines. It looks extremely unlikely that all the different groups will be able to come to a unanimous decision for a candidate to succeed Hamid Karzai. Or that if a certain party wins the elections, the other or others will accept the result as legitimate. If this sort of thing happens, there is the possibility of a total breakdown of governance in Afghanistan, and this will happen without the Taliban having lifted a finger!
      This is where the heat needs to be turned on so that the elections are seen as open & fair to the Afghan people. But since every body is so obsessed with security, democracy is given short shrift and this is precisely what needs to be seen to work. Public participation in the 2009 elections was less than the turnout in 2005. This has to change.

      A lot of ballot stuffing occurred in 2009 and the IEC had to dump areas where Karzai won 90-95% of the vote. People turn up at booths with filled ballot papers of the many imaginary daughters they have who just could not make it to the polling booths.

      There is an election bill still waiting for approval in the Afghan parliament that would help to level the playing field.

      Karzai has built up an empire he does not want to lose control of it. Taliban being considered as political opponents is about as dangerous to him as any other candidate that isn't in Karzai's camp but with a viable chance of winning. Whether Taliban is ready to lay down arms and compete politically remains to be seen. They do not look like they have a good chance of winning. Better to hold onto their guns for now.

      The Afghan President has enormous powers to appoint a lot of people and this in turn creates the corrupt patronage networks that are so lucrative.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Jun 13,, 16:06.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
        If that is 'not the correct answer', perhaps you can show me a successful model for 'fixing the issue' utilized by ISAF in Afghanistan ...
        "Successful model" from the perspective of whom? Right now, the USA is mowing them down as they come up. It is not as if you have a problem with that approach. You just want to control the technology.
        "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
          Complete lack of credible evidence supporting allegations of complicity equates to exoneration - there is no other conclusion to arrive at here.
          No it is not exoneration. For that, it has to be conclusively proven that PA and others were absolutely not involved. Where is that proof?

          By the way, can I summarize your entire line of arguments and reasoning:
          1. The Pakistani establishment should not be held accountable for any terrorist groups operating out of the country, since the ISAF has not been able to eradicate extremism in Afghanistan
          2. Pakistan's internal terror problem is a "long term issue" and should be entrusted to Pakistan herself to solve, even though some of these groups have been fed and nurtured by Pakistan herself
          3. Meanwhile, if these lowlife's make trouble elsewhere aroud the world, that's just too bad, as it is immoral for others to come and take care of it
          4. The Pakistani Army should not absolutely be taken to task for anything, its all the politicians fault


          Have I summarized it effectively. Please feel free to correct if I have not.
          "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

          Comment


          • Originally posted by antimony View Post
            "Successful model" from the perspective of whom? Right now, the USA is mowing them down as they come up.
            I don't see that as a successful model at all given that Taliban attacks inside Afghanistan continue to occur and given that the US recently announced the desire to engage in negotiations with the Taliban.
            Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 24 Jun 13,, 16:29.
            Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
            https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

            Comment


            • Originally posted by antimony View Post
              No it is not exoneration. For that, it has to be conclusively proven that PA and others were absolutely not involved. Where is that proof?
              Asking someone to prove a negative is a logical fallacy, which is why courts ask for evidence establishing guilt rather than evidence establishing innocence.

              The 'burden of proof' is on the individual claiming that 'X occurred', in this case, the individuals claiming that 'the PA and/or ISI were complicit in the escape, and subsequent sheltering, of OBL'.

              By the way, can I summarize your entire line of arguments and reasoning:
              1. The Pakistani establishment should not be held accountable for any terrorist groups operating out of the country, since the ISAF has not been able to eradicate extremism in Afghanistan
              2. Pakistan's internal terror problem is a "long term issue" and should be entrusted to Pakistan herself to solve, even though some of these groups have been fed and nurtured by Pakistan herself
              3. Meanwhile, if these lowlife's make trouble elsewhere aroud the world, that's just too bad, as it is immoral for others to come and take care of it
              4. The Pakistani Army should not absolutely be taken to task for anything, its all the politicians fault


              Have I summarized it effectively. Please feel free to correct if I have not.
              Instead of 'summarizing' my views in your own words, just quote my positions as stated by me - they are clear enough IMO.
              Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 24 Jun 13,, 16:45.
              Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
              https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

              Comment


              • ...and so it appears that the US, the paks and the insurgents are in one room asking each other What do you want? and what can I give you in return?.

                Partition, your allies and mine, that little flame from the 70s and the bomb. Where is this going to end?

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                • For the last hundred years the afghans have had a monarchy, an un-elected presidential system, anarchy, theocracy and now democracy.

                  How it ends is without the Afghans getting it in the back. Hopefully.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                    1. The Pakistani military did not 'shuffle the most wanted man out of Afghanistan'
                    He escaped from A-stan to P-stan ;) Why?

                    2. The Pakistani State (or its institutions, in case someone chooses to make that distinction) did not 'harbor and protect OBL for many years'
                    Prove it. Pakistan has smoking gun in their hands, he was captured in front of the most powerful institution in the country.

                    3. I have seen no credible evidence that Pakistan allowed the Chinese to 'inspect the pieces of the Black Hawk left behind from the Abottabad raid', but even if they did, there would be nothing wrong with doing so given that the US carried out an unauthorized and illegal military operation inside Pakistan to begin with.
                    Yet, your gov returned it. 3 weeks later. Why?
                    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                      Instead of 'summarizing' my views in your own words, just quote my positions as stated by me - they are clear enough IMO.
                      Its tiring to trawl through your arguments and counter arguments across topics. Maybe you can do us a favour and point to them? Else feel free to state them right here as we are all getting confused by now.
                      "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                        He escaped from A-stan to P-stan ;) Why?
                        Ask the US forces deployed to capture him in alliance with the NA elements on the ground ... why did they allow OBL to escape?
                        Prove it. Pakistan has smoking gun in their hands, he was captured in front of the most powerful institution in the country.
                        That sentence of yours is more hyperbole than fact - OBL was found living in a residential neighborhood close to Pakistan's military academy, and the US government itself has officially stated that they have found no evidence that the Pakistani State was complicity in sheltering OBL.
                        Yet, your gov returned it. 3 weeks later. Why?
                        Why what? Would have preferred they not return it?
                        Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                        https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by antimony View Post
                          Its tiring to trawl through your arguments and counter arguments across topics. Maybe you can do us a favour and point to them? Else feel free to state them right here as we are all getting confused by now.
                          I am not the one going off on multiple tangents here - I am merely responding to a diverse range of questions thrown at me.

                          I think the best 'favor' that can be done here for everyone is 'sticking to the topic', which is, loosely, the nascent peace process initiated with the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan's role in facilitating that process and the regional dynamics in 2014 and beyond. So if you have questions regarding my views on something related to the topic, I'll answer ...
                          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                            Ask the US forces deployed to capture him in alliance with the NA elements on the ground ... why did they allow OBL to escape?
                            You tell me. US didn't control the border during Tora Bora.

                            That sentence of yours is more hyperbole than fact - OBL was found living in a residential neighborhood close to Pakistan's military academy, and the US government itself has officially stated that they have found no evidence that the Pakistani State was complicity in sheltering OBL.
                            You really expect them to say otherwise after 50 years of "investing" into major non NATO ally?

                            Why what? Would have preferred they not return it?
                            I don't care. Just seems like a long time.
                            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              For the last hundred years the afghans have had a monarchy, an un-elected presidential system, anarchy, theocracy and now democracy.

                              How it ends is without the Afghans getting it in the back. Hopefully.
                              Guerilla warfare is native to this subcontinent, probably infused in blood. But it is not about what is inside the blood because the afghans are expected to harass the americans as a form of default behaviour. It is not surprising.

                              The british rule lasted about 100 years until they used up all their resources.
                              The greek rule lasted almost 200 years before all their satraps were ambushed.
                              The mughal rule lasted around 300 years before they got spent, ambushed and confined to old delhi and deccan.
                              The americans have hardly spent 12 yrs.

                              Look at the record. It was never going to go the other way.

                              The power center of this subcontinent is not in afghanistan or even pakistan. Both of them have descended into wilderness because they have been uprooted away from its center. The nature of their reconstruction will be anyone's guess.

                              Comment


                              • A Deadly Triangle : Afghanistan, Pakistan & India | Brookings Essay | June 25 2013

                                General essay on the regions dynamics, past & present.

                                Karzai already tried the talk to the Taliban bit in 2010 and making good with pakistan, it did not work out.

                                The Taliban won't talk to Karzai until the 'occupiers' vacate.
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Jun 13,, 23:33.

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