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  • #91
    Originally posted by antimony View Post
    After going through Kargil, 911 and others, I have come to believe that the Pakistani leadership is crazy...like a fox.

    I don't know if the Pakistani citizens themselves are self destructive or not (they seem so at some points), their actual leadership is certainly not. So I do not believe that the loonie with the belt, is actually loonie, though he certainly wants us to believe so.
    Agreed. I think the gambit is played out however, and I haven't yet seen signs of a plan B, just trying to resell the old plan A, as though we should forget all about the last twelve years.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

    Leibniz

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
      That's just the point Pak public has no say whatsoever in the way foreign policy is conducted.
      And I will reiterate, changing that perceived power dynamic is the prerogative of the Pakistani electorate/public - the existence of the alleged power-dynamic (by itself) has no bearing on 'Pakistani sovereignty' or what not as Julie was arguing.
      Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
      https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by Minskaya View Post
        The Pakistani leadership can formulate national policy using a Ouija Board for all I care.

        However, when such governance negatively impacts regional and international interests, then Pakistani policy becomes a problem for all of us.
        Which is something I addressed in the second part of the post you replied to:

        "Second, where you, as a non-Pakistani, have the right to be concerned is when you think Pakistani policies impact you (the allegation of terrorist training camps, madrassas for example). With respect to dealing with the hodgepodge of terrorist/extremist groups in the country, it is a long term and complicated challenge that goes far beyond mere military operations, and nothing illustrates that better than the inability of the US/ISAF to accomplish 'total peace' in Afghanistan (and Iraq, for as long as the US was there), despite having many magnitudes more economic and military resources at her disposal."
        Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
        https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by Julie View Post
          You know, it is really difficult to deal with a President who states his country is a partner in the "War on terror," while his military shuffles the most wanted man out of Afghanistan and harbors and protects him for many years. Osama was living right up under the nose of the 6th largest military in the world, and they had no clue? Then they let the China send their people to inspect the pieces of the black hawk that was left behind??? Then YOU want to tell me it is none of my business who is the decision-maker in Pakistan? Oh, please man, do cut me a break....
          1. The Pakistani military did not 'shuffle the most wanted man out of Afghanistan'
          2. The Pakistani State (or its institutions, in case someone chooses to make that distinction) did not 'harbor and protect OBL for many years'
          3. I have seen no credible evidence that Pakistan allowed the Chinese to 'inspect the pieces of the Black Hawk left behind from the Abottabad raid', but even if they did, there would be nothing wrong with doing so given that the US carried out an unauthorized and illegal military operation inside Pakistan to begin with.
          4. And yes, the political/power dynamics of governance in Pakistan are none of your business - what is your concern/business are Pakistani policies that the US perceives as being damaging to her national security, which is something I addressed in my previous reply to you.
          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
            1. The Pakistani military did not 'shuffle the most wanted man out of Afghanistan'
            2. The Pakistani State (or its institutions, in case someone chooses to make that distinction) did not 'harbor and protect OBL for many years'
            3. I have seen no credible evidence that Pakistan allowed the Chinese to 'inspect the pieces of the Black Hawk left behind from the Abottabad raid', but even if they did, there would be nothing wrong with doing so given that the US carried out an unauthorized and illegal military operation inside Pakistan to begin with.
            4. And yes, the political/power dynamics of governance in Pakistan are none of your business - what is your concern/business are Pakistani policies that the US perceives as being damaging to her national security, which is something I addressed in my previous reply to you.
            Also, Dawood leaves in Hollywood, LeT is actually a NGO with its Head Office in Tel Aviv and IC 814 was infact hijacked by Tom & Jerry.
            sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Deltacamelately View Post
              Also, Dawood leaves in Hollywood, LeT is actually a NGO with its Head Office in Tel Aviv and IC 814 was infact hijacked by Tom & Jerry.
              Posting irrelevant rubbish as a response is usually a good indication that you don't have any answers to the points I raised.
              Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
              https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                1. The Pakistani military did not 'shuffle the most wanted man out of Afghanistan'
                2. The Pakistani State (or its institutions, in case someone chooses to make that distinction) did not 'harbor and protect OBL for many years'
                3. I have seen no credible evidence that Pakistan allowed the Chinese to 'inspect the pieces of the Black Hawk left behind from the Abottabad raid', but even if they did, there would be nothing wrong with doing so given that the US carried out an unauthorized and illegal military operation inside Pakistan to begin with.
                4. And yes, the political/power dynamics of governance in Pakistan are none of your business - what is your concern/business are Pakistani policies that the US perceives as being damaging to her national security, which is something I addressed in my previous reply to you.
                If that be the case, then our billions of tax dollars that are paid to the Pakistan government to protect our national security are not forthcoming. Hence, the unauthorized military operation. We wanted more "bang" for our buck, so we got it.

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by Julie View Post
                  If that be the case, then our billions of tax dollars that are paid to the Pakistan government to protect our national security are not forthcoming. Hence, the unauthorized military operation. We wanted more "bang" for our buck, so we got it.
                  My point is merely that the US has no claims on anything 'left behind' from an unauthorized military operation - Pakistan can do whatever it wishes with the 'pieces of the Black Hawk'. That said, as I pointed out earlier, I am not aware of any credible reports suggesting Pakistan shared the Black Hawk pieces with China.
                  Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                  https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                    My point is merely that the US has no claims on anything 'left behind' from an unauthorized military operation - Pakistan can do whatever it wishes with the 'pieces of the Black Hawk'. That said, as I pointed out earlier, I am not aware of any credible reports suggesting Pakistan shared the Black Hawk pieces with China.
                    Of course there is no credible reports, just as there was never any credible reports, or any reports for that matter, that OBL was a stone's throw from ISI headquarters. Intelligence leaves alot to be desired in that area, because army officials can not be that ignorant to their surroundings. Either way, that is bad results for everybody.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Julie View Post
                      Of course there is no credible reports, just as there was never any credible reports, or any reports for that matter, that OBL was a stone's throw from ISI headquarters. Intelligence leaves alot to be desired in that area, because army officials can not be that ignorant to their surroundings. Either way, that is bad results for everybody.
                      Pakistan Returns Secret U.S. Helicopter Wreckage

                      By LUIS MARTINEZ (@LMartinezABC) and LEE FERRAN (@leeferran)
                      May 24, 2011

                      The wreckage of the secret stealth helicopter that was abandoned by U.S. Navy SEALs during the mission to kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan is back in U.S. government hands, a Pentagon official said today.

                      The Pakistani government, which has held on to the remains of what experts believed to a highly modified Blackhawk helicopter since the May 2 raid, returned "what's left of the whole thing" including a large tail section to U.S. officials over the weekend, said Col. Dave Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman. The helicopter is being held in an undisclosed location.

                      The helicopter made a hard landing after it clipped a wall during the mission to kill bin Laden and was abandoned by the SEALs, but not before the special operations team attempted to destroy it with explosives. In the days after the raid, the tail section and other pieces of debris -- including a mysterious cloth-like covering that the local children found entertaining to play with -- were photographed being hauled away from the crash site by tractor.

                      Aviation experts said the unusual configuration of the rear rotor, the curious hub-cap like housing around it and the general shape of the bird are all clues the helicopter was highly modified to not only be quiet, but to have as small a radar signature as possible.

                      In the days after the raid, U.S. officials asked for the helicopters return, but Pakistani officials said they were interested in studying it and suggested the Chinese were interested as well. One Pakistani official told ABC News earlier this month, "We might let them [the Chinese] take a look."

                      A U.S. official said then he did not know if the Pakistanis had offered a peek to the Chinese, but said he would be "shocked" if the Chinese hadn't already been given access to the damaged aircraft. Lapan did not say whether or not there is evidence the Chinese had been allowed to see the pieces of the helicopter before it was returned to the U.S.

                      The Chinese and Pakistani governments are known to have a close relationship. Last week, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani traveled to Beijing and was greeted warmly by the Chinese with a deal from from Chinese government to provide Pakistan with 50 fighter jets.

                      The Department of Defense has not officially commented on the nature of the aircraft and a senior Pentagon official told ABC News in the days after the raid the Department would "absolutely not" discuss it.
                      Pakistan Returns Secret Stealth U.S. Helicopter From Osama Bin Laden Raid - ABC News
                      Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                      https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                        They're loosing a regular and significant source of income, material and intel
                        But Pakistan is still the cheapest route for all materials in and out of Afghanistan, so there are transit fees as well as the power to set those fees and dictate what may or may not be shipped. That's a fair degree of control the Paks exercise over Afghanistan.

                        Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                        Imagine if the 'aid' currently supplied to Pakistan suddenly starts going to the controllable parts of the TB inside Afghanistan instead, in that time honoured tradition of great powers buying off one tribe and pitting them against another.
                        Here we get into murky waters over CIA baksheesh. Could go to the TB or even Karzai. Security trumping democracy.

                        This is a very difficult situation for the US, picking sides. By not doing anything they are also picking sides. As Iran, Russia, Pakistan, China & India also have their favoured sides. With this many cooks in the kitchen the Paks don't have to do much to complicate the situation. They just have to figure out how to capitalise whichever way it turns out.

                        The political transition next year must work out in the eyes of the Afghan people for the economic & security picture to improve.

                        Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
                        As far as I can tell there is zero trust or respect for Pakistan within the US government. I really can't see, post withdrawal, what cards Pakistan can play other than the old loonie 1 gambit " I'll blow yous all up, just see if I don't". Frenemies indeed.
                        Do the Paks gain if there is unrest or not is the question to be answered. They're up against the world with this. At the same time they are also in an important position to ensure things work to everybody's interest.

                        For the right price.

                        So i'm not sure about fear, opportunity however...looks stronger.

                        For in Pak hands lies important elements for Afghan stability.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Jun 13,, 15:36.

                        Comment


                        • Back on topic:

                          Sleepless in Kabul

                          Aasim Zafar Khan
                          Monday, June 24, 2013

                          Afghanistan is on the brink of history. The Americans are about to leave, and elections are around the corner as well. And just when the world thought that peace in Afghanistan was an impossible dream, the United States (with a lot of help from a certain friend/foe) managed to bring the Afghan Taliban onto the negotiating table. The talks were just days away, the future of Afghanistan on the agenda. And then Hamid Karzai happened.

                          On the surface, what ticked the Afghan president off were two things: a) the Afghan Taliban were using the name ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ and b) instead of the Afghan national flag, they were flying their own colours. This to Karzai was impossible, a slap to Afghan dignity, and he promptly put into question a bilateral security agreement between the US and Afghanistan post 2014. But the truth is that Hamid Karzai is scared, and fighting to survive and remain relevant.

                          First things first, these talks were going to be ‘Afghan-led’, but there wasn’t an Afghan to be seen, apart from one of the two Taliban at the press conference. In opening a direct line with the Afghan Taliban, the US has very strongly signalled its total lack of belief in the Karzai government’s efforts to secure peace in Afghanistan’s future.

                          Second, let’s assume that talks between the Afghan Taliban and the US take place and are successful. What would be the outcome? Well, simply, there would be a countrywide ceasefire, and the Taliban would be allowed to take part in next April’s presidential elections. And what if they nominate Mullah Omar as their candidate? What sort of chance does he have against people like Abdullah Abdullah, Omar Daudzai, Qayum Karzai and Ahmed Massoud’s brother? Depending on who you listen to, Mullah Omar could beat these guys in a presidential election. Imagine the reaction.

                          It’s this exact chance that scares Karzai, and he will do all he can to ensure that the talks don’t happen. The Taliban would ruin his best-laid plans. Plans he has so meticulously created. What the Afghan president is also trying to do is negate Pakistani interference in his country post 2014. But Karzai overestimates how much ‘control’ Pakistan has over the Afghan Taliban, which are now a primarily Afghan-led, independent movement. President Karzai has long been muttering his disapproval about ‘Pakistanis meddling in Afghan affairs’.

                          The Afghan presidential elections, scheduled for April 2014, are wide open. We all remember how utterly rigged the last one was, but thankfully, Hamid Karzai cannot run for the office for a third time. So he’s touting his brother Qayum in his place. The problem is that Qayum does not garner the kind of Pakhtun support that Karzai has, and is not a winning horse.

                          Realising this, Pakistan has put its money elsewhere, mending fences with erstwhile opponents such as Abdullah Abdullah, and looking to support, for the very first time, a non-Pakhtun as the president of Afghanistan.

                          Karzai is trapped. If he stops the Taliban from entering into the political process, he is denying his country the possibility of peace. If he tries to sidestep Pakistan, he risks alienating the Pakhtuns from Afghanistan’s highest office – for the first time in a very long time.

                          What must Karzai do in order to remain relevant and true to Afghanistan? To be honest, he cannot remain relevant, having bungled up the last two terms in office, cutting deals with warlords who would put many global war criminals to shame. However, he can still be true to his country and people.

                          Let’s take the Taliban out of the equation for now. Afghanistan is a country fractured and divided into numerous groups, mostly on ethnic lines. It looks extremely unlikely that all the different groups will be able to come to a unanimous decision for a candidate to succeed Hamid Karzai. Or that if a certain party wins the elections, the other or others will accept the result as legitimate. If this sort of thing happens, there is the possibility of a total breakdown of governance in Afghanistan, and this will happen without the Taliban having lifted a finger!

                          Despite western efforts, the civilian government in Afghanistan remains weak, fractured and extremely corrupt. On the other hand, a very large sum of money has been poured into the Afghan National Army, which has been made numerically powerful and well-equipped. As history has shown, whenever there is a weak civilian government and an unfairly strong military institution, what happens?

                          We Pakistanis know the answer to that question very well: the military steps in. There is a strong likelihood that in Afghanistan, in case of a breakdown of governance, the ANA will step in. However, the ANA is also fractured and divided along ethnic lines, much like the Afghan state. The Pakhtuns believe that the army is predominantly Tajik and could easily rally opponents under the ‘Pakhtun’ banner. Also, factions within the army could also break away, and with the government broken and the army fighting within itself, the situation could quickly and easily spiral out of control.

                          Karzai must, at the earliest, understand that his country is on the brink of a civil war post 2014, and whatever violence can be avoided should be avoided.

                          Afghanistan needs a break.

                          Sleepless in Kabul - Aasim Zafar Khan
                          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                            Which is something I addressed in the second part of the post you replied to:

                            "Second, where you, as a non-Pakistani, have the right to be concerned is when you think Pakistani policies impact you (the allegation of terrorist training camps, madrassas for example). With respect to dealing with the hodgepodge of terrorist/extremist groups in the country, it is a long term and complicated challenge that goes far beyond mere military operations, and nothing illustrates that better than the inability of the US/ISAF to accomplish 'total peace' in Afghanistan (and Iraq, for as long as the US was there), despite having many magnitudes more economic and military resources at her disposal."
                            No, that is not the answer. For you, it may be a matter of "long term" whatever. For others, these terrorists are attacking us here and now and we do not care to wait for the long term, especially since Pakistan does not even seem to have the right polity to move in the right direction. In that case, if someone can take care of your problems sooner (drone strikes) they will. You don't like that, either take action against this third party yourself or take it to the UNSC.
                            "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                            Comment


                            • Here we go again

                              Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                              1. The Pakistani military did not 'shuffle the most wanted man out of Afghanistan'
                              2. The Pakistani State (or its institutions, in case someone chooses to make that distinction) did not 'harbor and protect OBL for many years'
                              None of us can say for certain what the establishment did or not did. What we an say though is that we have not seen enough evidence. World of difference.
                              "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by antimony View Post
                                No, that is not the answer. For you, it may be a matter of "long term" whatever. For others, these terrorists are attacking us here and now and we do not care to wait for the long term, especially since Pakistan does not even seem to have the right polity to move in the right direction. In that case, if someone can take care of your problems sooner (drone strikes) they will. You don't like that, either take action against this third party yourself or take it to the UNSC.
                                If that is 'not the correct answer', perhaps you can show me a successful model for 'fixing the issue' utilized by ISAF in Afghanistan ...
                                Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                                https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

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