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  1. #1
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    The US Recovery

    Having lost our way in the discussion about the economy, banks and gold, a thread that I quite enjoyed, I propose another chance.

    Surprising facts about US weekly unemployment claims (data first collected in 1967).
    (‘000)
    _ _ _ _ _ _ _Avg claims _ _ as % of Pop _ _ _of Labor Force _ _of Civ. Employment
    1967-76 _ _ 292,474 _ _ _ _ _ 1.4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.4_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _3 .6
    1977-86 _ _ 419,232_ _ _ _ _ _1.8 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.8_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 4.2
    1987-96_ _ 360,199_ _ _ _ _ _ 1.4_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _2.8 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _3.0
    1997-06_ _ 343,103_ _ _ _ _ _ 1.2_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.4_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.5
    2007-09_ _ 433,586_ _ _ _ _ _ 1.4_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.8_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.0
    2010-12_ _ 414,404_ _ _ _ _ _ 1.3_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.7_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.0
    2013_ _ _ _ 360,542_ _ _ _ _ _ 1.1_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.3_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.5

  2. #2
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Can you unpack that a bit for us DOR. To what extent have chances in policy & definition impacted those numbers in different directions ie. women entering the workforce; changes to definitions of 'unemployment'; changes to welfare.


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    David I also regret the way the last thread ended as I was also enjoying it but I will regard this as a new chance for all (including myself) to be more rational and civil and hold no grudges. I wonder if you have an analysis of the Japanese sell off? Should the Japanese sentiment continue next week, no doubt courtesy of the horrid Kyle Bass, where else suffers? I assume you have noted the rises in Spanish etc bond yields. Does 'safe money' run to US bonds, of which apparently Bernanke now holds 30% of? Would this be potential out time for the Fed?

    I also welcome your thoughts on what caused the Japanese turn down turn and bond spike and any suggestions you would have for the BoJ.

    Regarding your above numbers I submit the following charts:

    Attachment 32988

    and this from the Bureau of Labour Statistics:

    Attachment 32989

    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

  4. #4
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Bigfella,

    The numbers show that – on this one measure alone – we’re back. I put up population, labor force and employment comparisons to avoid the ‘everyone’s dropping out of the workforce because Obama’s a communist/Muslim/alien’ argument.

    The data were first collected in January 1967, so I used 10 year jumps that led me very nicely to the start of 'the recent unpleasantness.’ Then, I split 2007-13 into the worst of the crisis, the recovery and this year.

    Unemployment claims have fallen farther and faster under Obama than for any other president since LBJ.

    = = = = =

    snapper,

    I don’t do stock markets, casinos, horse racing, lotteries or other forms of gambling.

    The debt:GDP chart very nicely illustrates the past 10-12 years of crisis and resolution.

    The labor chart, which is labor force participation as a percent of the population, doesn't show people working for cash, the surge in retired baby boomers or those who stayed in or returned to school because of the lousy job market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    I don’t do stock markets, casinos, horse racing, lotteries or other forms of gambling.

    The debt:GDP chart very nicely illustrates the past 10-12 years of crisis and resolution.

    The labor chart, which is labor force participation as a percent of the population, doesn't show people working for cash, the surge in retired baby boomers or those who stayed in or returned to school because of the lousy job market.
    So given that less people are actually working how will the deficit be addressed?

    You don't trade???? Yet you're trying to tell me that the US is a good investment and gold isn't? I don't think many people invest in the markets to 'gamble', we invest to retain the value of our money mostly, if we make a profit that's a bonus. I certainly do not have the time to watch the markets 24/7 but suppose you expect the Japanese 'experiment' or 'Abenomics' to end horribly well there are funds that predict that and will manage your investment for you.

    Regarding Japan in more relative terms do you think that what happens there with 'Abenomics' can tell us anything about how the US Bernanke 'experiment' may end? It seems to me that 'Abenomics' is just Obama fiscal policy + Bernanke monetary policy writ on a smaller market so it may perhaps foretell the US policy.

    As always I welcome your thoughts.

  6. #6
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    How will the deficit be addressed?
    Gosh, I’m not making enough money because the boss cut my hours.
    Guess I’ll have to ask for a raise. (i.e., tax increase.)

    .

    No, I don’t gamble on stock markets. They have no relationship to the underlying assets and the short-term traders have ruined the market for longer term investors. I don’t recall telling anyone it was a good investment, but maybe I slipped in a moment of confusion.

    Funds that will manage my money on the assumption that Policy X or Country Z fails start by charging a whacking big fee, and then gamble – with my money – that they can make that fee plus some return. If they’re right, they take a bigger slice and if they’re wrong they keep their fees.

    The House always wins.

    Gold is different, simply because it is mono-dimensional.

    .

    Abenomics is a confirmation that Bernanke is right and most of Europe got it badly wrong.
    I’m still waiting for Obama’s fiscal policy. So far, it is just a struggle to tear down the road blocks to recovery.

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