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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #901
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what, you're not convinced by the balanced budget amendment they're proposing?

    i wrote a long time ago here that the Tea Party folks were never interested in fiscal rectitude other than as an anti-Obama talking point. when it comes to a choice between massive tax cuts and deficit reduction, we know what wins every time.
    Who am I to argue with the CBO, a GOPer?


    The Obama Record

    Comparing final data for 2010-17 to budget plans released in March 2009 gives us insight into expectations vs. reality.
    As usual, reality won.

    Individual tax revenues fell short by $2.8 trillion over the course of the Obama Administration’s eight year run.* Payroll tax receipts fell $844 billion short, and corporate taxes by $351 billion. Overall, the government underestimated its own income by $3,672 billion.

    On the other side of the balance sheet, mandatory spending was $2,254 billion higher than originally projected. Discretionary spending fell by $229 billion, which was probably not the smartest strategy when the economy is deflating for the first time since the 1950s. Since the Fed had to do all the heavy lifting (once the original emergency spending was dealt with, congress went on strike), interest rates collapsed, and with them, interest payments (by $892 billion).

    Overall, the debt held by the public rose $3.3 trillion as the economy underperformed by $258 billion, a remarkably accurate long-term forecast.

    https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/b...conomic-data#3


    * Remember, coming into office in January 2009 means you don't get the credit or the blame for what happens until 2010.
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  2. #902
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    the reality has ALWAYS been that so-called Obama spending was largely driven by pre-Obama mandated spending due to the Great Recession.

    Trump and the GOP do not have that excuse. they're legislatively driving massive cuts to revenue. as far as i'm concerned, the next time some deficit fear-monger raises his head and talks about GREECE, the only response should be "stfu".
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #903
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Revenue will rise by 4.8% per annum in 2018-23, down from 6.2% p.a. in the previous (2013-17) five-year period. That’s despite a bump up in nominal economic growth (the base on which taxes are applied) from 3.5% p.a. to 4.1% a year.

    Spending will rise 5.8% a year, after five years of average 2.4% p.a.. And, after dropping 9.3% each year, the deficit will rise by 9.6% in 2018 and in each of the four subsequent years.
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  4. #904
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    US Minimum Wage, real and nominal

    Came across a deflator and decided to see what it might tell me.

    The time duration between nominal increases was 9 years in 1981-89, then three adjustments in three years. There was then a four year wait (1992-95), followed by three adjustments in three years. The next pause was for another nine years (1998-06), followed by four adjustments in four years.

    We are now in the ninth year at $7.25/hr.

    ADD:
    If we were to start adjusting in the 10th year, and at the same pace as previously, we’d be looking at $9.25 an hour in 2020, which would bring us back to the same real rate as there was in 1982-83.
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    Last edited by DOR; 18 Jun 18, at 10:36.
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  5. #905
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the reality has ALWAYS been that so-called Obama spending was largely driven by pre-Obama mandated spending due to the Great Recession.

    Trump and the GOP do not have that excuse. they're legislatively driving massive cuts to revenue. as far as i'm concerned, the next time some deficit fear-monger raises his head and talks about GREECE, the only response should be "stfu".
    The Tea Party and Fox News are obviously pretty bad, but there's a lot more nuanced critique out there that's not "rah-rah Trump tax cuts are awesome" and "Obama is going to turn us into Greece." I don't think anyone of said people liked the Trump tax cuts, but they think the tax simplification was way, WAY better than anything they could've hoped for.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    The Tea Party and Fox News are obviously pretty bad, but there's a lot more nuanced critique out there that's not "rah-rah Trump tax cuts are awesome" and "Obama is going to turn us into Greece." I don't think anyone of said people liked the Trump tax cuts, but they think the tax simplification was way, WAY better than anything they could've hoped for.
    Unless you're an American living abroad, and have built and run a small business for decades. In that case, the new tax bite means that anything you earned since the year dot is suddenly taxable, and all of it is due.

    Sure, it's an unintended consequence.
    No, it wasn't a Democratically led Congress that drafted such a law.
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