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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #886
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics has monthly data on employment among various education groups going back to 1992. Graphing out the percent share of total employment among three groups – no High School diploma, High School but No College and Minimum BA degree – shows three incredible straight lines.

    Which makes me wonder why this Brookings study was even conducted.
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  2. #887
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    The US Economy in 2017

    According to the preliminary Q-4 numbers, the US economy grew 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.5% the previous year. Private consumption expanded 2.7%, identical to 2016’s revised figure, while capital investment reversed the previous year’s 1.6% decline to grow by 3.2%.

    Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption deflator, averaged 1.7%, up a half point from 2016 and the highest level since 2012. The consumer price index rose 2.1%, after rising 1.3% in 2016. Unemployment averaged 4.4% during the year.

    Growth in the fourth quarter was 2.5% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in Q-3. On a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, however, it was down from 3.2% in July-September, to 2.6% in the final three months of the ear.
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  3. #888
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Say, the bond markets are going up recently as evidenced by the stock market. Is the Fed (Treasury) starting to borrow more money and if so where will it go? What companies are out there on the leverage abyss?

    I wake up this morning (10am EST) and KGO has the market down 40. At 12 noon EST it is down close to 300+. Just look now (closed) and pow, down 1721. C est la vie...

    Edit: above in bold
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 06 Feb 18, at 01:05.

  4. #889
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    The Fed doesn't borrow money it lends.

    Inflation is the real worry here as employers flush with cash are hiring in a tight labor market.

    This will force the Fed to increase interest rates, but they could overshoot.

    However, unlike the crash of 08 and the dotcom bubble underlying economic strength is strong and the economic activities are real.

    The key problem for the markets though is that they have been fueled by central bank action since 08. Even with the real economy roaring back, collapse of central bank support is going to hurt. The key question is, where is the meeting point between the Fed retreat discount and the advancing real economy?

  5. #890
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    What I'm wondering now is, aRe we on the cusp of a rotation from stocks into real estate?

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