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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #886
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    The Bureau of Labor Statistics has monthly data on employment among various education groups going back to 1992. Graphing out the percent share of total employment among three groups – no High School diploma, High School but No College and Minimum BA degree – shows three incredible straight lines.

    Which makes me wonder why this Brookings study was even conducted.
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  2. #887
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    The US Economy in 2017

    According to the preliminary Q-4 numbers, the US economy grew 2.3% in 2017, up from 1.5% the previous year. Private consumption expanded 2.7%, identical to 2016’s revised figure, while capital investment reversed the previous year’s 1.6% decline to grow by 3.2%.

    Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption deflator, averaged 1.7%, up a half point from 2016 and the highest level since 2012. The consumer price index rose 2.1%, after rising 1.3% in 2016. Unemployment averaged 4.4% during the year.

    Growth in the fourth quarter was 2.5% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in Q-3. On a quarter-to-quarter annualized basis, however, it was down from 3.2% in July-September, to 2.6% in the final three months of the ear.
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    Say, the bond markets are going up recently as evidenced by the stock market. Is the Fed (Treasury) starting to borrow more money and if so where will it go? What companies are out there on the leverage abyss?

    I wake up this morning (10am EST) and KGO has the market down 40. At 12 noon EST it is down close to 300+. Just look now (closed) and pow, down 1721. C est la vie...

    Edit: above in bold
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 06 Feb 18, at 00:05.

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    The Fed doesn't borrow money it lends.

    Inflation is the real worry here as employers flush with cash are hiring in a tight labor market.

    This will force the Fed to increase interest rates, but they could overshoot.

    However, unlike the crash of 08 and the dotcom bubble underlying economic strength is strong and the economic activities are real.

    The key problem for the markets though is that they have been fueled by central bank action since 08. Even with the real economy roaring back, collapse of central bank support is going to hurt. The key question is, where is the meeting point between the Fed retreat discount and the advancing real economy?

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    What I'm wondering now is, aRe we on the cusp of a rotation from stocks into real estate?

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    pretty funny how Trump has gone silent on the stock market recently. don't think it's an accident that he's been playing up immigration issues now that the economic one is clapped out.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    ***Beavis and Butthead laugh*** Heh, heh....he said clap!
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  8. #893
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    pretty funny how Trump has gone silent on the stock market recently. don't think it's an accident that he's been playing up immigration issues now that the economic one is clapped out.
    Let's look at this a moment. Sure the market took a hit when tariffs were announced a week or so ago. The market took another big hit when Trump attacked Amazon. Now I put it to you that Trump did that intentionally because of one thing... petty jealousy. Trump attacked Amazon right after the latest rankings of the world's richest came out with Bezos at the top and Trump dropping 200 places. Believe me no one does petty jealousy better than Trump and he was just able to knock down Bezos billions of dollars. That simple? Well, look who we are talking about.

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    in this case because Trump's talking out of his @$$ per usual about the USPS/Amazon relationship, Amazon has a pretty good way to give Trump the middle-finger: change the relationship.

    it would be hugely damaging to USPS finances while not all that consequential for Amazon profitability.

    too bad it would cost the US taxpayer to give Trump that middle finger.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    What I'm wondering now is, aRe we on the cusp of a rotation from stocks into real estate?
    I don't see how this can be held while claiming that the mid-2000s was just a bubble. The US housing market is MORE inflated now than it was in the mid 2000s. And that's with fewer housing starts.

    Vacancy rates are way below normal, though. And housing construction is about where it was in the peak of last decade.

    Far from the US over-building, we have wayyyyyy too few homes! So it's a great time to build real estate, you know, if the local government will let you.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 03 Apr 18, at 19:09.
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    in this case because Trump's talking out of his @$$ per usual about the USPS/Amazon relationship, Amazon has a pretty good way to give Trump the middle-finger: change the relationship.

    it would be hugely damaging to USPS finances while not all that consequential for Amazon profitability.

    too bad it would cost the US taxpayer to give Trump that middle finger.
    Bezos is purchasing a bunch of 767's he will be competing with FedEx UPS, USPS etc. While neither has Amazons resources nor it's huge overhead

  12. #897
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    I don't see how this can be held while claiming that the mid-2000s was just a bubble. The US housing market is MORE inflated now than it was in the mid 2000s. And that's with fewer housing starts.

    Vacancy rates are way below normal, though. And housing construction is about where it was in the peak of last decade.

    Far from the US over-building, we have wayyyyyy too few homes! So it's a great time to build real estate, you know, if the local government will let you.
    I don’t see how anyone can say the US housing market is more frothy now than in the mid-2000s.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPCS20RSA: S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City index doubled in six years (Jan 2000 – Jan 2006), then crashed and then up just 50% from Spring 2012 to Jan 2018. Over the same periods, national data (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) shows an 85% increase and then a 45% rise.

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  13. #898
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    Yeah, that's a great way of showing that prices are as expensive as they were in the mid-2000s. Prices are effectively double what they were in 2000. It's not like median household income has doubled.

    Of course I don't think it's a "bubble" because the US has too few homes, particularly in certain locations (real estate being a local thing, after all). It'd be great if you can repurpose some of that vacant commercial land into residential land, but good luck getting the local government to approve it.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 04 Apr 18, at 14:56.
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    The new US budget

    The Congressional Budget Office has just released its latest outlook for Fiscal America, and the reading underlines the hypocrisy of the GOP’s so-called fiscal conservatives.

    Over the course of 2019-23, GOPers plan to take $890 billion more from the economy in revenues and spend $1,359 billion more. That will yield $5,307 billion in debt, which is $1,268 billion more than previously planned. The details are here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

    Mandatory spending goes down $301 billion, but discretionary spending makes up for it by rising $402 billion. Net interest payments – money isn’t free, regardless of what GOPers seem to think – will total $600 billion.

    Who gets stuck for the bill? Individual taxpayers will pay $58.87 more for every $100 increase in spending. Payroll taxes will provide another $27.62 and corporate income taxes . . . a mere $9.40.

    But, that corporate contribution is misleading. Actually, debt held by the public is paying a larger share of the bills. For every $100 billion increase in nominal GDP, debt goes up by $133.85 billion.
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    The Congressional Budget Office has just released its latest outlook for Fiscal America, and the reading underlines the hypocrisy of the GOP’s so-called fiscal conservatives.
    what, you're not convinced by the balanced budget amendment they're proposing?

    i wrote a long time ago here that the Tea Party folks were never interested in fiscal rectitude other than as an anti-Obama talking point. when it comes to a choice between massive tax cuts and deficit reduction, we know what wins every time.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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