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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #796
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the coming AI car + EV technology double punch will upend the US labor market. first the trucking industry, then the taxi industry (along with all those Uber/Lyft contractors).

    in the long-run it'll probably depress the car/gas industries as well, by completely remodeling how people buy/use cars.

    that's why a lot of Silicon Valley types are talking about universal basic income; given these advances, we may see a pretty big upswing in structural unemployment.

    The subject of universal basic income raises tons of questions. Seems we're heading in that direction simply because we can. The larger question--whether humanity would benefit from sitting on its ass collecting a check while robots do all the work--appears to be lost on Silicon Valley techies and big business. How, for example, can replacing a truck driver with a self-driving truck be justified inasmuch as the truck will surely cost a lot more and be vulnerable to hacker hijacking.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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    JAD,

    The larger question--whether humanity would benefit from sitting on its ass collecting a check while robots do all the work--appears to be lost on Silicon Valley techies and big business
    well, the other question would be...how would humanity benefit from sitting on its ass NOT collecting a check while robots do all the work? that robots will take over more and more work is inevitable, as the -building- automotive industry found.

    How, for example, can replacing a truck driver with a self-driving truck be justified inasmuch as the truck will surely cost a lot more and be vulnerable to hacker hijacking.
    very true, yet...a self-driving truck would not be bound by labor laws, nor need to eat, or sleep.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #798
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the coming AI car + EV technology double punch will upend the US labor market. first the trucking industry, then the taxi industry (along with all those Uber/Lyft contractors).

    in the long-run it'll probably depress the car/gas industries as well, by completely remodeling how people buy/use cars.

    that's why a lot of Silicon Valley types are talking about universal basic income; given these advances, we may see a pretty big upswing in structural unemployment.
    And, ATMs will shove all those bank tellers out of work, self-service gas stations will kill off the grease monkeys, microwave ovens will eliminate the need for restaurants, oh and telephones will definitely be the end of the personal transportation industry -- no need for cars, buses, etc.
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  4. #799
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    on the other hand median income hasn't budged much since the 1990s.
    The 1990s … FTP files were bleeding-edge technology, if you could get your Windows 3.1, Pentium-chipped IBM knock-off to get a dial-up connection.
    Once connected, call your buddy’s pager – who could afford $1,000 for a cell phone? – or maybe a fax, to let him know how cool you are.

    Real median household income, 2016 CPI-U-RS Adjusted Dollars:
    1984 _ _ $49,335
    1993 _ _ $51,116
    2002 _ _ $56,599
    2011 _ _ $53,401
    2016 _ _ $59,039

    How can that be?

    Here’s one key reason: the cost of communication: household spending on telecoms dropped 78% between 1997 and 2016.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTCERG3A086NBEA

    Furnishings and durable goods prices have been dropping like a stone. A/V prices are down by half in the last decade alone, phones by 40%.
    Last edited by DOR; 13 Oct 17, at 08:54.
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    DOR,

    And, ATMs will shove all those bank tellers out of work, self-service gas stations will kill off the grease monkeys, microwave ovens will eliminate the need for restaurants, oh and telephones will definitely be the end of the personal transportation industry -- no need for cars, buses, etc.
    yes, there will be some work substitution but not 1:1. i used the example of taxi drivers turning into Uber drivers, for instance...and those are the relatively lucky ones whom can still use their existing skills. the hollowing out of employment in middle-class skills (particularly lower-middle class) is what leads to the severe underemployment, despair, and opoid use in Appalachia.

    look at where the hottest areas of employment are: tech, bio sciences, etc. these are skill-sets that require significant levels of education. it's not an accident that educational costs have gone haywire over the last twenty years. that's another huge structural gap and contributor to income disparity.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  6. #801
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    JAD,



    well, the other question would be...how would humanity benefit from sitting on its ass NOT collecting a check while robots do all the work? that robots will take over more and more work is inevitable, as the -building- automotive industry found.
    Fair question. Let's see: Not collecting a check? Well, I suppose no one would be able to buy the stuff robots make. That would put DOR out of a job if he wasn't already roboted.


    very true, yet...a self-driving truck would not be bound by labor laws, nor need to eat, or sleep.
    True, as well, but ex-drivers will still need to eat. And interstate and state regulations will, for the most part, still cover self-driveing trucks.

    Your move.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  7. #802
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    And, ATMs will shove all those bank tellers out of work, self-service gas stations will kill off the grease monkeys, microwave ovens will eliminate the need for restaurants, oh and telephones will definitely be the end of the personal transportation industry -- no need for cars, buses, etc.
    Those innovations didn't much impact employment levels, although at the time they were introduced there were probably some doomsday writers spelling the end of life as we know it.

    Robots and driver-less vehicles will have a far greater impact on the way we live.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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    JAD,

    Well, I suppose no one would be able to buy the stuff robots make.
    except for the rich folks, and people with jobs that robots haven't taken over (yet)...:-) the funny thing is that this is similar to the populist argument against globalization-- "who cares if things get cheaper if you don't have a job/money to buy it with!"

    more realistically, there will be sustained, massive shifts in labor as people go into the remaining fields where humans are still required. right now it's -relatively- muted because the jobs that are disappearing are from people who usually don't have much of a voice to begin with- coal miners yesterday, taxi drivers soon. i imagine things will get worse down the line when robots start taking over jobs like surgery. there already is robot-assisted surgery now, what happens when the human isn't needed at all?

    on the "plus" hand side, world population will likely peak in the next twenty years or so, and start shrinking fairly fast thereafter...so who knows what things will be like then.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Fair question. Let's see: Not collecting a check? Well, I suppose no one would be able to buy the stuff robots make. That would put DOR out of a job if he wasn't already roboted.
    What I do is most easily consumed by people with some spare time.
    Lots more people with a lot more spare time?
    Bring it on!
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  10. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    JAD,



    except for the rich folks, and people with jobs that robots haven't taken over (yet)...:-) the funny thing is that this is similar to the populist argument against globalization-- "who cares if things get cheaper if you don't have a job/money to buy it with!"
    Good point. However, relative wages from one country to the other won't matter when robots are toiling away all over the globe. Of course, there could be pockets of low wage regions where it's still less costly to use human labor over robots. But in time the race to exploit those regions would drive up wages and hasten robotization.

    BTW, my gripe against globalization isn't about job exportation and low price imports. Comparative advantage takes care of them over time. On the contrary, my gripe has to do with globalization's impact on cultural diversity. While different cultures can benefit through interaction with each other, globalization MAY eventually blur the line between them. Good? Bad? I don't know. Only future generations will be able to answer those question.


    on the "plus" hand side, world population will likely peak in the next twenty years or so, and start shrinking fairly fast thereafter...so who knows what things will be like then.

    What crystal ball are you looking into?
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  11. #806
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    What I do is most easily consumed by people with some spare time.
    Lots more people with a lot more spare time?
    Bring it on!
    Would that be political commentary? In any case, congratulations on being insulated from the coming ravages of robotization. More people would be wise to do likewise.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Good point. However, relative wages from one country to the other won't matter when robots are toiling away all over the globe. Of course, there could be pockets of low wage regions where it's still less costly to use human labor over robots. But in time the race to exploit those regions would drive up wages and hasten robotization.

    BTW, my gripe against globalization isn't about job exportation and low price imports. Comparative advantage takes care of them over time. On the contrary, my gripe has to do with globalization's impact on cultural diversity. While different cultures can benefit through interaction with each other, globalization MAY eventually blur the line between them. Good? Bad? I don't know. Only future generations will be able to answer those question.





    What crystal ball are you looking into?
    JAD_333,
    You're living in the most culturally diverse part of the most culturally diverse country in the world.
    How's that working out for you?
    Trust me?
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  13. #808
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    What I do is most easily consumed by people with some spare time.
    Lots more people with a lot more spare time?
    Bring it on!
    Unfortunately, idle hands especially in the hands of energized youth results in increased crime rates.

  14. #809
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    JAD_333,
    You're living in the most culturally diverse part of the most culturally diverse country in the world.
    How's that working out for you?

    I concede that--the melting pot. It has on balance been a good thing for the country over the years. But the dividing lines blur over time. I was speaking of whole countries or regions with a long-held dominant culture.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  15. #810
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    I concede that--the melting pot. It has on balance been a good thing for the country over the years. But the dividing lines blur over time. I was speaking of whole countries or regions with a long-held dominant culture.
    Exactly.
    A long period of mono-culture is very, very bad for crops, societies and other living things.
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