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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #781
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    However, rump came into office when a lot of people had been playing a far more conservative game in investment in hiring due to fears of the regulatory burden. Trumps promise and actions to reform the tax code, reduce regulatory burdens and a couple of well timed economic events unleashed a lot of pent up energy. He does deserve credit for that.
    Not sure where you found the date to support that …

    Private Real Fixed Capital Investment, Percent Change Year-on-Year
    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2014 _ _ _2015 _ _ _2016 _ _ _1/2 2017
    Manufacturing: _ _ _ _ _ _ _+12.9% _ _ +35.6% _ _ -6.3% _ _ _-7.9%
    Power/Communications: _ _+17.3% _ _ -2.0% _ _ +4.9% _ _ _ -0.8%
    Transport equipment: _ _ _+11.8% _ _ +10.5% _ _ -7.3% _ _ _ -5.1%
    www.bea.gov, Table 5.3.6

    Since 1947, the average duration from peak to trough in real non-residential
    private fixed capital investment is 20 quarters. Since 1975, it is closer to 27 quarters.

    The last peak was Q-1 2012, 21 quarters ago.
    The last trough was Q1 2014, six quarters back.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A008RA3Q086SBEA

    Investment in hiring?

    Still can’t find the data to back it up.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIR

    Hiring expectations 6-12 months out also don’t support that notion.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFSBCHIRINGEXP

    Nonfarm payrolls in July were up 1.49% YoY, lowest since +1.45% in March 2013.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS#0
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  2. #782
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    Let's get cyclical!

    This is one of the more powerful dramatizations of the US business cycle I’ve come across.
    Anything above 100 is firing on all cylinders, or more.
    Credit to UC Berkeley Economics Professor Brad DeLong.

    http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/....html#comments
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