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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #631
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Not true if you're on social security and pensions tied to the CPI, but overall a good sign. And if it slows Donald down, all the better.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  2. #632
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    JAD,

    have you been hanging up the "I'm with Her" signs yet? ;-)

    but here's a good way to think about this:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/9/15/1292111...y-census-obama
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #633
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Everytime you link Vox, a demon gets his horns
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  4. #634
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    GVChamp,

    Everytime you link Vox, a demon gets his horns
    i'm afraid what would happen if i were to link to Jacobin!
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #635
    Staff Emeritus Julie's Avatar
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  6. #636
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Not true if you're on social security and pensions tied to the CPI, but overall a good sign. And if it slows Donald down, all the better.
    Actually, it's 100% true . . . if you understand the meaning of "median income."

  7. #637
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Actually, it's 100% true . . . if you understand the meaning of "median income."
    I was applying it Social Security recipients as a group. The median benefit did not come close to a 5% increase in 2015.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  8. #638
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    JAD,

    have you been hanging up the "I'm with Her" signs yet? ;-)

    but here's a good way to think about this:

    http://www.vox.com/2016/9/15/1292111...y-census-obama
    Asty:

    lol...nope. Not yet.

    As for the article, who knows. It speculates on how something that didn't happen would have turned out if it had happened. But allow me to speculate that if Romney had been elected last time, we wouldn't be facing a choice between Trump and HRC today.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

  9. #639
    Staff Emeritus Julie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    But allow me to speculate that if Romney had been elected last time, we wouldn't be facing a choice between Trump and HRC today.
    I totally agree with you on that issue.

  10. #640
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    GVChamp,



    i'm afraid what would happen if i were to link to Jacobin!
    Bah, I have been avoiding that site, which is extraordinarily popular among all my leftist friends :(
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  11. #641
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAD_333 View Post
    I was applying it Social Security recipients as a group. The median benefit did not come close to a 5% increase in 2015.
    I don't believe I've seen any data on the median income of Social Security recipients, so no comment.

  12. #642
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Millions in U.S. Climb Out of Poverty, at Long Last

    By PATRICIA COHEN SEPT. 25, 2016 The New York Times

    For the first time since the recession began, the poverty rate fell substantially in 2015. The number of people living under the poverty line declined by about 3.5 million, with every major demographic group benefiting from a stronger economy and an expanding job market. For all the improvement, though, poverty remains deeply entrenched, particularly among African-Americans and Hispanics, and is more prevalent in the South and Southwest.

    . . .
    Poverty declined among every group. But African-Americans and Hispanics — who account for more than 45 percent of those below the poverty line of $24,300 for a family of four in most states — experienced the largest improvement.

    Government programs — like Social Security, the earned-income tax credit and food stamps — have kept tens of millions from sinking into poverty year after year. But a main driver behind the impressive 1.2 percentage point decline in the poverty rate, the largest annual drop since 1999, was that the economy finally hit a tipping point after years of steady, if lukewarm, improvement.

    . . .

    Number of people whose income rose above the official poverty line in 2015
    TOTAL 3,534,000
    In families 2,831,000
    Unrelated 703,000

    White 1,866,000
    Hispanic 971,000
    Black 735,000
    Asian 59,000

    Female 1,863,000
    Male 1,671,000

    18 to 64 2,113,000
    Under 18 1,031,000
    65 and older 389,000

    Metro area 2,698,000
    Non-metro 836,000
    Did not work 1,415,000
    Work full time 554,000
    Work part time 144,000

    No diploma 927,000
    High school 882,000
    BA or higher 228,000
    Some college, no degree 169,000

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/bu...long-last.html

  13. #643
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Revised GDP growth gains 1.4 percent, stronger than expected

    The U.S. economy grew at a modestly faster pace in the second quarter than previously estimated, but the latest data confirms the expansion decelerated in the first half of the year.

    Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That's up from last month's estimate of a 1.1% growth rate during the spring. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected revised GDP growth at a 1.3% pace for the April to June period.

    Second-quarter growth accelerated from the first quarter's 0.8% pace, but was slower than the roughly 2% annual rate averaged since the recession ended in mid-2009. The current expansion's pace is the weakest of any since 1949.

    Thursday's report showed a measure of business investment improved rather than declined, accounting for most of the upward revision.

    Economic growth has held below a 1.5% pace for three straight quarters. The marked slowdown during an already sluggish expansion raised concerns that the economy was stumbling seven years after the recession ended.

    But many economists project output began to accelerate a bit this summer and should return to at least the expansion's average growth rate during the second half of the year. Similarly, payroll growth improved in recent months after a spring slump.

    "Growth was weak in the first half of the year, we're seeing definite evidence that the economy is now expanding more strongly," Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said last week. Improved economic growth and progress in the labor market "have strengthened the case for an increase in the federal funds rate," she said. The central bank has held its benchmark interest rate steady since December.

    Fed policymakers project the economy to grow at 1.8% pace for all of 2016, implying a modest second-half pick up. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, on Wednesday, forecast a 2.8% growth pace in the third quarter. The projection has been scaled back from well above 3% over the past month.
    Other data due out Thursday, including an inventories report, could alter third-quarter projections.

    The second-quarter GDP report showed a measure of business spending, nonresidential fixed investment, rose at a 1% rate versus the prior estimate of a 0.9% decline. The upward revision was due to a much smaller decline in structures investment than previously estimated, and an increase in intellectual-property investments.

    The change in private inventories was a smaller drag on growth than previously estimated, due to a larger contribution from farm inventories last quarter. Overall, the inventory change subtracted 1.16 percentage points from the GDP advance last quarter, smaller than the previously estimated drag of 1.26 points. Inventory building has weighed on growth for five straight quarters. An expected turn in that cycle is one reason economists project better second-half gains.

    A measure of economic growth that excludes inventory effects, real final sales of domestic product, rose at a 2.6% pace in the second quarter.

    Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of total output, rose at a 4.3% pace in the spring, compared with an earlier estimate of growth at a 4.4% annual rate. Last quarter's gain was still the largest increase in household outlays since late 2014.

    Residential fixed investment, including home building and improvements, fell at an unrevised 7.7% pace in the second quarter. Before last quarter, residential investment had been a driver of economic growth since 2014.

    Growth in exports, which add to GDP, outpaced gains for imports, which subtract from domestic output, during the last quarter. As a result, trade contributed a slightly better 0.18 percentage point to overall growth in the second quarter. Trade was a significant drag on growth during 2015, a year in which the dollar strengthened against many foreign currencies.

    Government spending declined at a 1.7% rate in the second quarter, compared to a prior estimate of down 1.5%.

    Corporate profits after tax, without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rose 5.6% from the prior quarter, up from a previous estimate of a 4.9% increase in the second quarter. That measure most closely matches profits as reported on company balance sheets. The profit measure was down 1.7% from the second quarter of 2015.

    A before-tax measure of profits, which includes inventory and capital adjustments, fell 0.6% in the second quarter, versus the earlier-estimated decline of 1.2%. The measure, intended to be more inline with output gauges, was down 4.3% from a year earlier.

    Profits at U.S. corporations have been stressed in recent years by the strong dollar, which makes U.S.-made products more expensive for foreign customers, and low oil prices that have hammered the domestic energy industry.

    The dollar and oil prices have stabilized in recent months but margins could be squeezed going forward by weak global growth, rising labor costs and other forces.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/29/gdp-2...-estimate.html

  14. #644
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    Where Have All the Workers Gone?


    by Professor Alan B. Krueger, Princeton, Oct 4, 2016

    The main finding of this analysis is that the labor force participation rate has historically only displayed, at most, a moderate procyclical pattern. Shifting demographic shares, mainly an increase in older workers, can account for 80% of the decline in the participation rate since the last business cycle peak under a simple decomposition , although secular trends for some groups are also important.

    Survey evidence indicates that almost half of prime age NLF men [men not in the laborforce] take pain medication on a daily basis. 40% of NLF prime age men report that pain prevents them from working on a full-time job for which they are qualified.



    Note: those who are surprised by the low level of labor force participation should look at Figure 3 on p. 48. According to the demographics, the sharp decline in participation since 1998 is exactly in line with predictions.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7m...3h4X0E/preview

  15. #645
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    Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)

    Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...ewsrelease.htm

    DOR Comment: The longer term perspective.

    Real GDP growth in the 2010s is running 20% faster than in the 2000s, an average of 2.1% vs. 1.7%. That’s mainly due to capital investment (6.4% vs. -1.2% in the previous decade), and despite contracting government spending (-0.9% vs. +2.4%). Domestic demand is rising more than 50% faster, 2.5% vs. 1.6%.

    Labor figures are even more diverse. While the labor force is rising by only 0.5% since the first quarter of 2010, compared to 1.2% in the 2000s, employment is up 1.4%, vs. 0.2% in the 2000s. Average weekly unemployment claims are down from an average of 380,000 (on a smaller labor force and population base) to 349,000. Employment among all age groups and genders is up, with the exception of women 16-19 years of age.

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ 2000s _ _ _ 2010s
    Real GDP Avg qtr-to-qtr _ _ _ _ _ _+1.82% _ _ _ +2.09%
    Private Consumption_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _+2.41% _ _ _ +2.23%
    Government Consumption_ __ _ __+2.35% _ _ _ -0.89%
    Capital Investment_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _-1.23% _ _ _ +6.38%
    Exports_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ +3.47% _ _ _ +4.47%
    Imports_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _+2.91% _ _ _ +4.62%
    Domestic Demand_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _+1.61% _ _ _ +2.46%
    Current Account (% of GDP) _ _ _ _-4.54% _ _ _ -2.63%

    Population _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _+0.97% _ _ _ +0.76%
    Non-institutionalized Pop. _ _ _ _ _ _+1.33% _ _ _ +1.14%
    Labor Force _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _+1.21% _ _ _ +0.50%
    Employment _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _+0.18% _ _ _ +1.36%
    Unemployment Rate _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ +5.54% _ _ _ +7.29%
    Weekly Claims (‘000s) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _379.68 _ _ _ _ 348.76

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