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  • I have no problem with the wealthy paying their taxes. As a lifelong Silicon Valley the stat only 11% percent of the population does ring true. You want to buy a 1970 ranch house on my street. $ 2.2 million dollars
    The state of CA is well funded, just the vast majority of the population can not afford to live in SF, LA San Diego San Jose. You have no retirement, and all your income goes to day to day living, but they tax rich people and the economy is growing. Yeah
    Did the study look at Wichita KS (Aviation Capital) vs Silicon Valley (Tech Capital). Union membership, multinational presence, cost of living, education etc. Compare CA agriculture area Fresno, Stockton to the SF and LA and it looks a lot like KS.

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    • Originally posted by DOR View Post
      So, a financial mercenary examines China with the preconceived notion that the banking system is about to collapse and as a result drive down the value of the renminbi.

      1. If the banking system in Shaanxi were to collapse, that has nothing to do with the banking system in Guangxi. Shanghai isn’t Liaoning. There is no single Chinese banking system, just a loosely aligned – no, ‘loosely associated’ – collection of provincial and municipal structures.
      So when your cousin loses his life saving in Shaanxi, you don't worry because your money is in Guangxi and the banking officials say it is all ok. No reason to pull funds. Dosen't history says otherwise.


      2. If the various banking systems were to simultaneously collapse, the very obvious fact that the debts are domestic makes it impossible for such an occurrence to directly cause a decline in the Rmb. There would be no rush for dollars for the simple reason that the loans are denominated in Rmb; dollars wouldn't help. It is possible, maybe even likely that the currency market would panic under this particular highly unlikely scenario, but that would be the market causing the depreciation, not the banking sector’s problems being the cause.
      The CCP has done everything it can to stave off recession Won't this make matters worse, when there is an economic contraction? Is the sovereignty of the CCP so great that it can control the state of the economy as no other nation on earth? A bank run in a country of 1 Billion people scary.

      3. The largest part of the banks’ non-performing loans are those to state-owned enterprises. When a state-owned bank is owed money by an SOE, the repayment is subject to administrative negotiation. There cannot be an SOE foreclosure without Party approval. I do not envisage the Party, at whatever level, deciding now would be an excellent time to generate a bit of financial panic.
      Can an economy as large as China really be controlled that easily?



      [/QUOTE]4. “Wall Street firms, consultants, and China experts” “all had the view that China would get through the recent turbulence without an economic reset.”
      Mr Bass disagrees. Well, I know who I’d put my trust in, and it isn’t some fishy financial mercenary.[/QUOTE]

      China will survive. I think back to the Savings and Loan crisis, 2008 recession, etc. The expert tell you what the crisis will entail at the beginning, but what follows is far worse
      Last edited by JAD_333; 27 Jun 16,, 19:25. Reason: HTML fix

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      • Dazed,

        “Your cousin in Shaanxi” and “your money is in Guangxi” doesn’t add up. It just doesn’t make sense on anything but the most coincidental scale.
        People in China don’t move around like that. Odds are your cousin – all your cousins --is in your home town.

        Staving off recession might make things worse? Show me any economic policy making team anywhere in the world that looks at that possibility and decides, “Well, let’s go ahead and burst the bubble now – even though it isn’t certain that it actually IS a bubble – because there’s a chance it might be worse later on.” No way.

        Managing China’s economy isn’t easy, but the leadership has a pretty good track record over the past 35 years. Part of the reason is that dismantling barriers is much easier than building institutions. Part of the reason is that most of the decisions are very local, with only the broad parameters laid out at the top. Part of the reason is that the export sector was left to foreign investors, and only strategic domestic sectors (power, telecoms, finance, etc) reserved for the State.

        Almost none of the reason is that the party has perfect macro-economic controls that it can use to fine tune everything.

        China will survive.
        Amen.
        Trust me?
        I'm an economist!

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        • #2edgy4me
          "Draft beer, not people."

          Comment


          • The US Economy in Q-2 2016

            The US economy grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016, both year-on-year and in quarter-to-quarter annualized terms. The latter was half again as large as in Q-1, but the year-on-year figure was down from 1.6% in the first three months of the year.

            Gross private domestic investment contracted (YoY) by 3.4% as investment in nonresidential structures fell for the sixth straight period. Private consumption, the largest share of the economy grew 2.7%, up from 2.4% in January-March. Exported goods and services fell 1.2% while imports grew 0.2% and government spending 0.9%.

            The GDP deflator, the broadest measure of prices changes in any economy, rose 1.2%, a hair above the Q-1 pace. The sub-component PCE deflator, which the Fed is said to monitor closely when considering interest rate adjustments, rose 0.9%, the same as in the first quarter. Exports prices fell 2.8% (the 7th straight drop) and those for imports by 4.1%, also the 7th in a row.
            --DOR
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

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            • I don't how I missed this.


              Originally posted by DOR View Post
              [B]

              “Your cousin in Shaanxi” and “your money is in Guangxi” doesn’t add up. It just doesn’t make sense on anything but the most coincidental scale.
              People in China don’t move around like that. Odds are your cousin – all your cousins --is in your home town.
              In a land of a billion plus people move. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migration_in_China and of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunyun

              Originally posted by DOR View Post
              [B]Staving off recession might make things worse? Show me any economic policy making team anywhere in the world that looks at that possibility and decides, “Well, let’s go ahead and burst the bubble now – even though it isn’t certain that it actually IS a bubble – because there’s a chance it might be worse later on.” No way.
              Agreed.

              Originally posted by DOR View Post
              [B]Managing China’s economy isn’t easy, but the leadership has a pretty good track record over the past 35 years. Part of the reason is that dismantling barriers is much easier than building institutions. Part of the reason is that most of the decisions are very local, with only the broad parameters laid out at the top. Part of the reason is that the export sector was left to foreign investors, and only strategic domestic sectors (power, telecoms, finance, etc) reserved for the State.

              Almost none of the reason is that the party has perfect macro-economic controls that it can use to fine tune everything.
              The CCP can say everything is okay and manipulate the currency and stats, but I don't think the CCP can micro/macro manage an economy to avoid recession.
              Last edited by Dazed; 31 Jul 16,, 02:01.

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              • Back to the US ...

                From 1947 to 1976, individual income taxes made up an average 55.3% of total federal receipts; corporate taxes comprises 28.7% and the remainder 16.0%.

                Since 1977, personal taxes have contributed 72.3%, corporate 18.4% and others 9.3%.

                Notice that the shift coincides with the stagnation in the real minimum wage…
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                  Back to the US ...

                  From 1947 to 1976, individual income taxes made up an average 55.3% of total federal receipts; corporate taxes comprises 28.7% and the remainder 16.0%.

                  Since 1977, personal taxes have contributed 72.3%, corporate 18.4% and others 9.3%.

                  Notice that the shift coincides with the stagnation in the real minimum wage…
                  Showing that two events or two trends coincide merely shows that coincidence (which may be worth further consideration and investigation), but showing that coincidence does nothing to prove any correlation, much less any cause-effect relationship.
                  .
                  .
                  .

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by JRT View Post
                    Showing that two events or two trends coincide merely shows that coincidence (which may be worth further consideration and investigation), but showing that coincidence does nothing to prove any correlation, much less any cause-effect relationship.
                    So, what's your answer?

                    Drive-by posting only gets you so far, then you have to actually chip in.
                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!

                    Comment


                    • Some doomsayer started ranting on about how M1 was soaring and the M2 velocity was collapsing, obviously meaning we need to get to Proxima B THIS WEEK because the world is about to end.

                      That got me thinking about inflation, and how long it had been so low.

                      Consider: In July 2016, the US Consumer Price Index was 18% higher than at the end of 2006. That’s nearly 10 years of average 1.8% inflation.

                      The last time that happened was in the summer before Nixon took office.
                      Trust me?
                      I'm an economist!

                      Comment


                      • DOR, that's FAKE DATA. don't you know we're on the edge of hyper-inflation thanks to Obozo's reckless spending? BUY TIPS NOW. :-)
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          DOR, that's FAKE DATA. don't you know we're on the edge of hyper-inflation thanks to Obozo's reckless spending? BUY TIPS NOW. :-)
                          Yeah, yeah, but I'm, well, addicted.
                          There, I've said it and man, oh man, is that a weight off my mind!
                          As they say, the first step toward recovery is to admit you have a problem.
                          My problem is people who can't come up with any evidence to support their arguments, and instead rant and rave about how it's all rigged.
                          Trust me?
                          I'm an economist!

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                          • Reading the usually interesting (for econ wonks) econbrowser.com this morning and came across a comment by Menzie Chinn about shadowstats.com (“Rookie Economist Errors, http://econbrowser.com/archives/2016...omist-errors):

                            “Anybody who cites Shadowstats should immediately lose all credibility. So … don’t do it!”

                            He cites a longer post by Jim Hamilton (http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb), of which excerpts:

                            shadowstats: “The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living.”

                            Greenlees and McClelland
                            : “o begin, it must be stated unequivocally that the BLS does not assume that consumers substitute hamburger for steak. Neither the CPI-U, nor the CPI-W used for wage and benefit indexation, allows for substitution between steak and hamburger, which are in different CPI item categories.”

                            Hamilton’s view: “Why do people continue to give credibility to an operation like Shadowstats? Now that’s something that I’d like to hear explained.”
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

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                            • latest Census report on income.

                              http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Ce...mo/p60-256.pdf

                              median income rose 5.2% from 2014, with incomes up 7.9% for the poorest 10%.
                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                              Comment


                              • Not true if you're on social security and pensions tied to the CPI, but overall a good sign. And if it slows Donald down, all the better.
                                To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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