Page 42 of 51 FirstFirst ... 33343536373839404142434445464748495051 LastLast
Results 616 to 630 of 763

Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #616
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    12,931
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-recession/

    The interesting thing that happened when Kansas cut taxes and California hiked them

    By Jim Tankersley and Max Ehrenfreund

    June 17 at 7:00 AM 

    In 2012, voters in California approved a measure to raise taxes on millionaires, bringing their top state income tax rate to 13.3 percent, the highest in the nation. Conservative economists predicted calamity, or at least a big slowdown in growth. Also that year, the governor of Kansas signed a series of changes to the state's tax code, including reducing income and sales tax rates. Conservative economists predicted a boom.

    Neither of those predictions came true. Not right away -- California grew just fine in the year the tax hikes took effect -- and especially not in the medium term, as new economic data showed this week.

    Now, correlation does not, as they say, equal causation, and two examples are but a small sample. But the divergent experiences of California and Kansas run counter to a popular view, particularly among conservative economists, that tax cuts tend to supercharge growth and tax increases chill it.

    California's economy grew by 4.1 percent in 2015, according to new numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, tying it with Oregon for the fastest state growth of the year. That was up from 3.1 percent growth for the Golden State in 2014, which was near the top of the national pack.

    The Kansas economy, on the other hand, grew 0.2 percent in 2015. That's down from 1.2 percent in 2014, and below neighboring states such as Nebraska (2.1 percent) and Missouri (1.2 percent). Kansas ended the year with two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a shrinking economy. By a common definition of the term, the state entered 2016 in recession.

    Other effects of the Kansas tax cuts, which were meant to spur entrepreneurship, are well-documented.

    While state officials anticipated that the reductions would create a shortfall in the state budget, tax revenues have been consistently below even those expectations. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service have signaled that they could reduce Kansas’s credit rating, indicating there is a chance the state cannot pay its bills.

    The shortfalls have forced Gov. Sam Brownback (R) and lawmakers to make additional adjustments. The state canceled the initial reduction in sales taxes, then increased them again, while delaying additional scheduled reductions in the income tax.

    On the whole, Brownback’s policies modestly increased taxes for the poor and working class, who pay more in sales taxes than income taxes, while reducing taxes drastically for the rich.

    The poorest 20 percent of households -- those making less than $23,000 a year -- are paying about $200 more, on average, according to an analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy in Washington. For the middle class, the changes have been a wash, with less-affluent households paying somewhat more and more-affluent households giving up a little less.

    Meanwhile, the wealthiest 1 percent of households, those making at least $493,000 a year, are saving an average of $25,000.

    Kansas’s gross domestic product is still less than it was at the end of 2011, said Menzie Chinn, an economist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who has been following Kansas’s economy. Meanwhile, the economy in the rest of the country continues to expand.

    “It’s remarkable,” Chinn said.

    It is perhaps less remarkable -- or surprising -- that California has powered along. The recovery nationwide has favored massive metropolitan areas stocked with high-skilled workers, which is to say places such as Los Angeles, San Jose and San Francisco. The damage from California's deep housing crash has slowly healed in places such as the Central Valley.

    Still, the noncoastal regions of California lag far behind Silicon Valley and Los Angneles in their job and growth recoveries. The state's median income remains below pre-recession levels after adjustment for inflation, although it still beats the national average.

    Few, if any, economists would say today that the recovery has been sufficient for all Californians. But almost no one can say that raising taxes on the rich killed that recovery. Or that given a choice of the two states' economic performances over the past few years, you'd rather be Kansas.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #617
    Patron
    Join Date
    07 Oct 14
    Location
    San Jose, CA.
    Posts
    251
    I have no problem with the wealthy paying their taxes. As a lifelong Silicon Valley the stat only 11% percent of the population does ring true. You want to buy a 1970 ranch house on my street. $ 2.2 million dollars
    The state of CA is well funded, just the vast majority of the population can not afford to live in SF, LA San Diego San Jose. You have no retirement, and all your income goes to day to day living, but they tax rich people and the economy is growing. Yeah
    Did the study look at Wichita KS (Aviation Capital) vs Silicon Valley (Tech Capital). Union membership, multinational presence, cost of living, education etc. Compare CA agriculture area Fresno, Stockton to the SF and LA and it looks a lot like KS.

  3. #618
    Patron
    Join Date
    07 Oct 14
    Location
    San Jose, CA.
    Posts
    251
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    So, a financial mercenary examines China with the preconceived notion that the banking system is about to collapse and as a result drive down the value of the renminbi.

    1. If the banking system in Shaanxi were to collapse, that has nothing to do with the banking system in Guangxi. Shanghai isn’t Liaoning. There is no single Chinese banking system, just a loosely aligned – no, ‘loosely associated’ – collection of provincial and municipal structures.
    So when your cousin loses his life saving in Shaanxi, you don't worry because your money is in Guangxi and the banking officials say it is all ok. No reason to pull funds. Dosen't history says otherwise.


    2. If the various banking systems were to simultaneously collapse, the very obvious fact that the debts are domestic makes it impossible for such an occurrence to directly cause a decline in the Rmb. There would be no rush for dollars for the simple reason that the loans are denominated in Rmb; dollars wouldn't help. It is possible, maybe even likely that the currency market would panic under this particular highly unlikely scenario, but that would be the market causing the depreciation, not the banking sector’s problems being the cause.
    The CCP has done everything it can to stave off recession Won't this make matters worse, when there is an economic contraction? Is the sovereignty of the CCP so great that it can control the state of the economy as no other nation on earth? A bank run in a country of 1 Billion people scary.

    3. The largest part of the banks’ non-performing loans are those to state-owned enterprises. When a state-owned bank is owed money by an SOE, the repayment is subject to administrative negotiation. There cannot be an SOE foreclosure without Party approval. I do not envisage the Party, at whatever level, deciding now would be an excellent time to generate a bit of financial panic.
    Can an economy as large as China really be controlled that easily?



    [/QUOTE]4. “Wall Street firms, consultants, and China experts” “all had the view that China would get through the recent turbulence without an economic reset.”
    Mr Bass disagrees. Well, I know who I’d put my trust in, and it isn’t some fishy financial mercenary.[/QUOTE]

    China will survive. I think back to the Savings and Loan crisis, 2008 recession, etc. The expert tell you what the crisis will entail at the beginning, but what follows is far worse
    Last edited by JAD_333; 27 Jun 16, at 19:25. Reason: HTML fix

  4. #619
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Dazed,

    “Your cousin in Shaanxi” and “your money is in Guangxi” doesn’t add up. It just doesn’t make sense on anything but the most coincidental scale.
    People in China don’t move around like that. Odds are your cousin – all your cousins --is in your home town.

    Staving off recession might make things worse? Show me any economic policy making team anywhere in the world that looks at that possibility and decides, “Well, let’s go ahead and burst the bubble now – even though it isn’t certain that it actually IS a bubble – because there’s a chance it might be worse later on.” No way.

    Managing China’s economy isn’t easy, but the leadership has a pretty good track record over the past 35 years. Part of the reason is that dismantling barriers is much easier than building institutions. Part of the reason is that most of the decisions are very local, with only the broad parameters laid out at the top. Part of the reason is that the export sector was left to foreign investors, and only strategic domestic sectors (power, telecoms, finance, etc) reserved for the State.

    Almost none of the reason is that the party has perfect macro-economic controls that it can use to fine tune everything.

    China will survive.
    Amen.

  5. #620
    Contributor Red Team's Avatar
    Join Date
    04 Oct 11
    Location
    NY
    Posts
    721
    #2edgy4me
    "Draft beer, not people."

  6. #621
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259

    The US Economy in Q-2 2016

    The US economy grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016, both year-on-year and in quarter-to-quarter annualized terms. The latter was half again as large as in Q-1, but the year-on-year figure was down from 1.6% in the first three months of the year.

    Gross private domestic investment contracted (YoY) by 3.4% as investment in nonresidential structures fell for the sixth straight period. Private consumption, the largest share of the economy grew 2.7%, up from 2.4% in January-March. Exported goods and services fell 1.2% while imports grew 0.2% and government spending 0.9%.

    The GDP deflator, the broadest measure of prices changes in any economy, rose 1.2%, a hair above the Q-1 pace. The sub-component PCE deflator, which the Fed is said to monitor closely when considering interest rate adjustments, rose 0.9%, the same as in the first quarter. Exports prices fell 2.8% (the 7th straight drop) and those for imports by 4.1%, also the 7th in a row.
    --DOR

  7. #622
    Patron
    Join Date
    07 Oct 14
    Location
    San Jose, CA.
    Posts
    251
    I don't how I missed this.


    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    [B]

    “Your cousin in Shaanxi” and “your money is in Guangxi” doesn’t add up. It just doesn’t make sense on anything but the most coincidental scale.
    People in China don’t move around like that. Odds are your cousin – all your cousins --is in your home town.
    In a land of a billion plus people move. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migration_in_China and of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunyun

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    [B]Staving off recession might make things worse? Show me any economic policy making team anywhere in the world that looks at that possibility and decides, “Well, let’s go ahead and burst the bubble now – even though it isn’t certain that it actually IS a bubble – because there’s a chance it might be worse later on.” No way.
    Agreed.

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    [B]Managing China’s economy isn’t easy, but the leadership has a pretty good track record over the past 35 years. Part of the reason is that dismantling barriers is much easier than building institutions. Part of the reason is that most of the decisions are very local, with only the broad parameters laid out at the top. Part of the reason is that the export sector was left to foreign investors, and only strategic domestic sectors (power, telecoms, finance, etc) reserved for the State.

    Almost none of the reason is that the party has perfect macro-economic controls that it can use to fine tune everything.
    The CCP can say everything is okay and manipulate the currency and stats, but I don't think the CCP can micro/macro manage an economy to avoid recession.
    Last edited by Dazed; 31 Jul 16, at 02:01.

  8. #623
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Back to the US ...

    From 1947 to 1976, individual income taxes made up an average 55.3% of total federal receipts; corporate taxes comprises 28.7% and the remainder 16.0%.

    Since 1977, personal taxes have contributed 72.3%, corporate 18.4% and others 9.3%.

    Notice that the shift coincides with the stagnation in the real minimum wage…

  9. #624
    Contributor
    Join Date
    14 Apr 09
    Posts
    689
    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Back to the US ...

    From 1947 to 1976, individual income taxes made up an average 55.3% of total federal receipts; corporate taxes comprises 28.7% and the remainder 16.0%.

    Since 1977, personal taxes have contributed 72.3%, corporate 18.4% and others 9.3%.

    Notice that the shift coincides with the stagnation in the real minimum wage…
    Showing that two events or two trends coincide merely shows that coincidence (which may be worth further consideration and investigation), but showing that coincidence does nothing to prove any correlation, much less any cause-effect relationship.
    .
    .
    .

  10. #625
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Quote Originally Posted by JRT View Post
    Showing that two events or two trends coincide merely shows that coincidence (which may be worth further consideration and investigation), but showing that coincidence does nothing to prove any correlation, much less any cause-effect relationship.
    So, what's your answer?

    Drive-by posting only gets you so far, then you have to actually chip in.

  11. #626
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Some doomsayer started ranting on about how M1 was soaring and the M2 velocity was collapsing, obviously meaning we need to get to Proxima B THIS WEEK because the world is about to end.

    That got me thinking about inflation, and how long it had been so low.

    Consider: In July 2016, the US Consumer Price Index was 18% higher than at the end of 2006. That’s nearly 10 years of average 1.8% inflation.

    The last time that happened was in the summer before Nixon took office.

  12. #627
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    12,931
    DOR, that's FAKE DATA. don't you know we're on the edge of hyper-inflation thanks to Obozo's reckless spending? BUY TIPS NOW. :-)
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #628
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    DOR, that's FAKE DATA. don't you know we're on the edge of hyper-inflation thanks to Obozo's reckless spending? BUY TIPS NOW. :-)
    Yeah, yeah, but I'm, well, addicted.
    There, I've said it and man, oh man, is that a weight off my mind!
    As they say, the first step toward recovery is to admit you have a problem.
    My problem is people who can't come up with any evidence to support their arguments, and instead rant and rave about how it's all rigged.

  14. #629
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Mar 11
    Location
    London
    Posts
    2,259
    Reading the usually interesting (for econ wonks) econbrowser.com this morning and came across a comment by Menzie Chinn about shadowstats.com (“Rookie Economist Errors, http://econbrowser.com/archives/2016...omist-errors):

    “Anybody who cites Shadowstats should immediately lose all credibility. So … don’t do it!”

    He cites a longer post by Jim Hamilton (http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb), of which excerpts:

    shadowstats: “The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living.”

    Greenlees and McClelland
    : “o begin, it must be stated unequivocally that the BLS does not assume that consumers substitute hamburger for steak. Neither the CPI-U, nor the CPI-W used for wage and benefit indexation, allows for substitution between steak and hamburger, which are in different CPI item categories.”

    Hamilton’s view: “Why do people continue to give credibility to an operation like Shadowstats? Now that’s something that I’d like to hear explained.”

  15. #630
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    12,931
    latest Census report on income.

    http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Ce...mo/p60-256.pdf

    median income rose 5.2% from 2014, with incomes up 7.9% for the poorest 10%.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 5 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 5 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Need help with computer recovery.
    By Gun Grape in forum Computer & Gadgets
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 19 Nov 11,, 18:04
  2. Dauntless recovery
    By SnowLeopard in forum Military Aviation
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 25 Jun 09,, 21:38
  3. Housing Recovery Begins
    By Shek in forum International Economy
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 23 Apr 09,, 12:33
  4. How would the recovery come about?
    By Silent Hunter in forum International Economy
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 25 Dec 08,, 18:16
  5. What Jobless Recovery?!
    By Leader in forum International Politics
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 19 Feb 04,, 19:06

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •