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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #46
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Now this is getting ratter silly, on one hand we have a statement people don't use fuel, on the other we have a chart showing price surge as a good thing, all the while there is a drop in median income.
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  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Now this is getting ratter silly, on one hand we have a statement people don't use fuel, on the other we have a chart showing price surge as a good thing, all the while there is a drop in median income.
    Wow.
    It's almost as if we went through the worst economic period in 80 years, and demand dropped.
    Wow.

  3. #48
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    I was just pointing at the arguments, there was no conclusion on my part.

    Wow.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

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  4. #49
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    doktor,

    I was just pointing at the arguments, there was no conclusion on my part.

    Wow
    i'm not saying a "price surge is a good thing"; i'm saying that it's minimal and mostly in line with the announced CPI.

    of course consumers feel the bite as their income drops. but that has nothing to do with claims that we're going through some huge inflation due to the Fed or whatnot, or how inflation figures are disguised or misleading because they don't include food/fuel.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #50
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    Two things I'm convinced of:

    1) We never really recovered form the dot-com bubble in 99-00. The stock market did, and the housing market propped up the economy until it didn't any more (POP!). The unemployment in the aughts, pre-crash- looked good for the same reason they're looking better now...folks blew past their unemployment and weren't counted (I was one of these...unemployment lasted 6 months in 01, but was extended to nine months after 9/11), and folks took part time work (I was one ofthose, too, after a couple years 'off').

    2) Oil prices are high because the oil industry got PO'd at Obama. Of course, Obama is cool with high prices because it falls in line with his agenda. If there is an (R) in the WH in 2017, I expect oil prices to fall dramatically.

  6. #51
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    CW,

    you're making two mistakes here, one reasonable and one not.

    1) We never really recovered form the dot-com bubble in 99-00. The stock market did, and the housing market propped up the economy until it didn't any more (POP!). The unemployment in the aughts, pre-crash- looked good for the same reason they're looking better now...folks blew past their unemployment and weren't counted (I was one of these...unemployment lasted 6 months in 01, but was extended to nine months after 9/11), and folks took part time work (I was one ofthose, too, after a couple years 'off').
    when you mean "really recovered", you don't really mean the economy (as measured by GDP). this is a reasonable mistake. what you mean, and what you experienced, was the flattening of income growth. IE median income growth absolutely bottom-lined after 2000, while top 1% income (and the 0.1%, even more so) skyrocketed. part of this was due to trade, part of this was due to technology, part of this was due to fiscal policy.

    you're quite right in that this creates an unbalanced economy, because this small sliver of rich people simply cannot channel their wealth as much, or as broadly, into the wider economy (no matter how rich you are...you'll always be limited by a 24 hour clock).

    people substituted expected income growth with borrowing, either against lines of credit (credit cards) and through dependency on housing values. when those respective bubbles crashed, not only did income shrink, existing wealth evaporated.

    2) Oil prices are high because the oil industry got PO'd at Obama. Of course, Obama is cool with high prices because it falls in line with his agenda. If there is an (R) in the WH in 2017, I expect oil prices to fall dramatically.
    this is not reasonable. really, OPEC autocrats, canadian/russian/nigerian/venezuelan oil suppliers, US companies hate obama so much that they're willing to distort the market and forego billions?

    does this show up in the data?

    let's take a look.

    Attachment 33031

    i'm guessing in 2007-8 the oil companies had a real hate-on for bush?

    more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.
    Last edited by astralis; 31 May 13, at 14:52.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  7. #52
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    doktor,

    i'm not saying a "price surge is a good thing"; i'm saying that it's minimal and mostly in line with the announced CPI.

    of course consumers feel the bite as their income drops. but that has nothing to do with claims that we're going through some huge inflation due to the Fed or whatnot, or how inflation figures are disguised or misleading because they don't include food/fuel.
    It is a heated argument and I know that neither you meant prices going up is good or snapper saying people don't use oil is exactly what she meant.

    I admit, might have misread and exaggerated your point there, but was really stunned when I read the two posts.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post

    more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.
    And the collapse of the dollars buying power due to TARP, bailout and the unending QE's. If the dollar wasn't collapsing, Gold would not be surging.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    when you mean "really recovered", you don't really mean the economy (as measured by GDP). this is a reasonable mistake. what you mean, and what you experienced, was the flattening of income growth.
    Nah, I mean jobs. Which, yeah, I wan't explicit...well....I was sloppy in writing about. I don't think the jobs market ever really rebounded from the dot-com bust (excepting, maybe, construction).


    IE median income growth absolutely bottom-lined after 2000,
    Probably because people were unemployed or underemployed.

    this is not reasonable. really, OPEC autocrats, canadian/russian/nigerian/venezuelan oil suppliers, US companies hate obama so much that they're willing to distort the market and forego billions?

    does this show up in the data?

    let's take a look.

    Attachment 33031
    Funny thing is, ecept for a blip where it went down (IIRC) late 2008-early 2009, gasoline prices have remained fairly flat despite the crude prices not being flat.


    more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.
    I don't expect them to drop until after Nov '16, if then, but I see your point and hope you are correct.

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    z,

    And the collapse of the dollars buying power due to TARP, bailout and the unending QE's.
    Attachment 33033Attachment 33034Attachment 33035

    If the dollar wasn't collapsing, Gold would not be surging.
    Attachment 33036
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #56
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Depends how far back you wanna go.

    Attachment 33038

    Attachment 33039
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  12. #57
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    doktor,

    sure, but note that we're talking about the effects of QE/tarp/etc on the price of gold. it'll be a pretty funny day when gold falls below where it was on jan 2009, as is quite likely given the trend and velocity. the investors whom feared inflation from QE will have gotten taken to the cleaners.

    the last graph hides the dramatic fall over the last six months or so, but we're back to where we were approx fall 2010.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #58
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Asty,

    Both Tarp and QE are started more then six months ago, hence the first graph.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  14. #59
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    i understand that...thus my comment re: the price of gold most likely falling to where it was pre-TARP/QE.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i understand that...thus my comment re: the price of gold most likely falling to where it was pre-TARP/QE.
    Pre TARP gold was at around $800 and now at $1,380ish. The difference the substantially larger number of paper $s in existence - devaluation and inflation.

    Savings are going down - despite QE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...stainable-lows Meanwhile 10 year bond yields and mortgage rates linked to them creep up.

    How you can call these 'stimulus' policies, both fiscal and monetary a 'success' is quite beyond me.
    Last edited by snapper; 01 Jun 13, at 13:22.

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