Now this is getting ratter silly, on one hand we have a statement people don't use fuel, on the other we have a chart showing price surge as a good thing, all the while there is a drop in median income.
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Originally posted by Doktor View PostNow this is getting ratter silly, on one hand we have a statement people don't use fuel, on the other we have a chart showing price surge as a good thing, all the while there is a drop in median income.
It's almost as if we went through the worst economic period in 80 years, and demand dropped.
Wow.Trust me?
I'm an economist!
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doktor,
I was just pointing at the arguments, there was no conclusion on my part.
Wow
of course consumers feel the bite as their income drops. but that has nothing to do with claims that we're going through some huge inflation due to the Fed or whatnot, or how inflation figures are disguised or misleading because they don't include food/fuel.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Two things I'm convinced of:
1) We never really recovered form the dot-com bubble in 99-00. The stock market did, and the housing market propped up the economy until it didn't any more (POP!). The unemployment in the aughts, pre-crash- looked good for the same reason they're looking better now...folks blew past their unemployment and weren't counted (I was one of these...unemployment lasted 6 months in 01, but was extended to nine months after 9/11), and folks took part time work (I was one ofthose, too, after a couple years 'off').
2) Oil prices are high because the oil industry got PO'd at Obama. Of course, Obama is cool with high prices because it falls in line with his agenda. If there is an (R) in the WH in 2017, I expect oil prices to fall dramatically.
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CW,
you're making two mistakes here, one reasonable and one not.
1) We never really recovered form the dot-com bubble in 99-00. The stock market did, and the housing market propped up the economy until it didn't any more (POP!). The unemployment in the aughts, pre-crash- looked good for the same reason they're looking better now...folks blew past their unemployment and weren't counted (I was one of these...unemployment lasted 6 months in 01, but was extended to nine months after 9/11), and folks took part time work (I was one ofthose, too, after a couple years 'off').
you're quite right in that this creates an unbalanced economy, because this small sliver of rich people simply cannot channel their wealth as much, or as broadly, into the wider economy (no matter how rich you are...you'll always be limited by a 24 hour clock).
people substituted expected income growth with borrowing, either against lines of credit (credit cards) and through dependency on housing values. when those respective bubbles crashed, not only did income shrink, existing wealth evaporated.
2) Oil prices are high because the oil industry got PO'd at Obama. Of course, Obama is cool with high prices because it falls in line with his agenda. If there is an (R) in the WH in 2017, I expect oil prices to fall dramatically.
does this show up in the data?
let's take a look.
i'm guessing in 2007-8 the oil companies had a real hate-on for bush?
more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.Attached FilesLast edited by astralis; 31 May 13,, 13:52.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by astralis View Postdoktor,
i'm not saying a "price surge is a good thing"; i'm saying that it's minimal and mostly in line with the announced CPI.
of course consumers feel the bite as their income drops. but that has nothing to do with claims that we're going through some huge inflation due to the Fed or whatnot, or how inflation figures are disguised or misleading because they don't include food/fuel.
I admit, might have misread and exaggerated your point there, but was really stunned when I read the two posts.No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
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Originally posted by astralis View Post
more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.
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Originally posted by astralis View Postwhen you mean "really recovered", you don't really mean the economy (as measured by GDP). this is a reasonable mistake. what you mean, and what you experienced, was the flattening of income growth.
IE median income growth absolutely bottom-lined after 2000,
this is not reasonable. really, OPEC autocrats, canadian/russian/nigerian/venezuelan oil suppliers, US companies hate obama so much that they're willing to distort the market and forego billions?
does this show up in the data?
let's take a look.
[ATTACH]33031[/ATTACH]
more realistically, what you see is a bounceback from the collapse of global trade in 2008, and a new normal of elevated oil prices due to the huge expansion of the chinese economy over the last decade. as US shale oil goes online, i expect fuel prices to drop.
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z,
And the collapse of the dollars buying power due to TARP, bailout and the unending QE's.
If the dollar wasn't collapsing, Gold would not be surging.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Depends how far back you wanna go.
Attached FilesNo such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
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doktor,
sure, but note that we're talking about the effects of QE/tarp/etc on the price of gold. it'll be a pretty funny day when gold falls below where it was on jan 2009, as is quite likely given the trend and velocity. the investors whom feared inflation from QE will have gotten taken to the cleaners.
the last graph hides the dramatic fall over the last six months or so, but we're back to where we were approx fall 2010.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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i understand that...thus my comment re: the price of gold most likely falling to where it was pre-TARP/QE.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by astralis View Posti understand that...thus my comment re: the price of gold most likely falling to where it was pre-TARP/QE.
Savings are going down - despite QE: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...stainable-lows Meanwhile 10 year bond yields and mortgage rates linked to them creep up.
How you can call these 'stimulus' policies, both fiscal and monetary a 'success' is quite beyond me.Last edited by snapper; 01 Jun 13,, 12:22.
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