Originally posted by DOR
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I still firmly believe that the rug will be yanked out from under us. The "phantom" millions unemployed didn't just magically disappear.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostI still firmly believe that the rug will be yanked out from under us. The "phantom" millions unemployed didn't just magically disappear.
And on that note, happy new year, everyone
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a correction, sure, but not a recession.
i suspect the next big bubble will be student loan debt, but that will not have the paralyzing effect that something like a simultaneous meltdown of the finance/housing industries had.
moreover as the population ages, this bubble will naturally shrink.
we're in the middle of a virtuous cycle right now so i expect growth to accelerate this year.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostInstead of trading my car in and making newer or longer payments, I'm paying to repair my old car. Monies out of my pocket remains the same,
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Originally posted by astralis View Posta correction, sure, but not a recession. i suspect the next big bubble will be student loan debt, but that will not have the paralyzing effect that something like a simultaneous meltdown of the finance/housing industries had. ... we're in the middle of a virtuous cycle right now so i expect growth to accelerate this year.
Non-mortgage consumer finance (student, credit-card, payday, auto, etc loans) may well be the after-shock bubble to burst. On the up-side, it may cool down the bizarrely priced urban housing and rental markets in NYC, DC, Valley and certain other tech hubs, and make owning a home possible for a lucky and parsimonious fraction of those kids.
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What a gloomy lot. Bubble is a word being overused and misused these days. The dot.com bubble, for those who lived and invested through it, compared well to the great Tulip and South Seas bubbles of yore--there was nothing in all those dot.coms to invest in except the mania of investors who thought there was and drove up stock prices. That's a prescription for a bubble. How anyone can define the troubles in the student loan market as a bubble escapes me. Was the savings and loan debacle some years back a bubble? Let's reserve the word for those insane events where investors drive stock prices up with nothing more to recommend them other than their own "irrational exuberance".To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato
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Originally posted by JAD_333 View PostWhat a gloomy lot. Bubble is a word being overused and misused these days. The dot.com bubble, for those who lived and invested through it, compared well to the great Tulip and South Seas bubbles of yore--there was nothing in all those dot.coms to invest in except the mania of investors who thought there was and drove up stock prices. That's a prescription for a bubble. How anyone can define the troubles in the student loan market as a bubble escapes me. Was the savings and loan debacle some years back a bubble? Let's reserve the word for those insane events where investors drive stock prices up with nothing more to recommend them other than their own "irrational exuberance".
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Originally posted by JAD_333 View PostWhat a gloomy lot. Bubble is a word being overused and misused these days. The dot.com bubble, for those who lived and invested through it, compared well to the great Tulip and South Seas bubbles of yore--there was nothing in all those dot.coms to invest in except the mania of investors who thought there was and drove up stock prices. That's a prescription for a bubble. How anyone can define the troubles in the student loan market as a bubble escapes me. Was the savings and loan debacle some years back a bubble? Let's reserve the word for those insane events where investors drive stock prices up with nothing more to recommend them other than their own "irrational exuberance".
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Originally posted by Blademaster View PostYes but what they are saying is that almost half of the car loans are bad or going into default. They are saying that car loans could be the next subprime market crisis.
Originally posted by zraver View PostKids are told go to college or else and there is no promise of a job on the other side for most, especially liberal arts types. The lack of jobs pushes the kids to then continue on to grad school or into a Ph.D program only to graduate and find the job market for scholars of byzantine horn blowers, or Ph.D in early German philosophers is extremely limited. By any measure the wholesale push of the young into universities is a bubble. hell even the tech side degrees are starting to feel it as companies bring in cheaper foreign technical workers.All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
-Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.
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Originally posted by Cactus View PostHave you been following the valuation of certain one-trick tech companies? $10M for an app that does nothing but yell "Yo!" (Yo - It's that simple.), $1B for a photo-effects and sharing app*, $20B for a text-messaging app... and you can't begin to imagine the money being spent on copy-cat bull-$#!+. If this is not speculation, I don't know what is (and it is too early to say if it is just "irrational exuberance" or something more malevolent). I was too young and penniless to invest in the Dot-Com Bubble, but I imagine at least some of those working in the industry were similarly uncomfortable during the late-90s when companies were shelling out millions for domain names and other such shenanigans.
I remember the dot.com madness well, My sister in law racked up more than $200k on an initial $10k in her brokerage account and lost it all in crazy March 2000 when the bubble popped. I got caught on one investment I had. Went from $45+ per share to $2.50 in 3-4 months and lingered on for 2 years until it petered out entirely. Now if you had bought Priceline at $1.50 after the bubble busted, you'd be wealthy today. Not all dot.coms went belly up. For example, ICGE, which had a share price north of $275 in Dec 1999 and a market cap larger than most US corps for a brief shining moment, invested early in Blackboard, which did well, and saved it from extinction. One year later it's share price was $7+ and today it sells for $12+. But all told billions of net worth went down the toilet, which ironically set the stage for the housing bubble. The Fed in an effort to combat the recession which followed the dot.com bust cut interest rates to 1% which got home builders and mortgage bankers to thinking...hmm. Buffett said at the time, don't invest in anything you don't understand. That's pretty much what happens when bubbles are created.To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato
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