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Thread: The US Recovery

  1. #16
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    snapper,

    Not really helpful to your argument... It shows that actual 'labour participation' or in English the number of people actually working is dropping by more around 1.5% more than can be accounted for by their demographic model.
    look at chart 3 again. your point is that the civilian labor force participation rate is trending down. my rebuttal is that pure demographics indicates that it will trend down regardless.

    of course the recession has sped up this downward trend. note, however, that the differential has remained relatively steady. what this indicates to me is that the recession forced an early exit out of the job market for aging baby boomers (and to a lesser degree, millenials going back to school vice taking a job). this explains how the unemployment rate has gone down, as well as the lowered civilian labor force participation rate.

    in this case, what we'll see is a gradual convergence of the real LFPR and the demographically-adjusted LFPR over time. a relatively short period of time, too, as the economy recovers and this shows up as a lagging indicator function.

    But I thought the US population was rising?
    it is. but the retirement of the abnormally large baby boomer generation (hence the name...) will mean a reduced level of overall labor force participation over the long-run. that still means millions of new workers, though, because the overall population is still growing-- and thus the US remains the one-eyed king in the land of the blind, so to speak.
    Last edited by astralis; 28 May 13, at 21:08.
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  2. #17
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    Funny how the "we are back" crowd is avoiding the part-time economy which is a direct result of Obamacare.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    look at chart 3 again. your point is that the civilian labor force participation rate is trending down. my rebuttal is that pure demographics indicates that it will trend down regardless.
    Chart 3 says as I said; that despite 5 years of stimulus and monetary insanity (which is literally akin to robbery for the 'man on the street') 'workforce participation' - the actual number of people working is around 1.5% lower than the demographics (or his demographic model) would account for.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    of course the recession has sped up this downward trend. note, however, that the differential has remained relatively steady.
    Wasn't the stimulus spending supposed to cure this? Wasn't QEternity? What about the differential between GDP and debt that continues to widen? Will you 'bail in' American deposit holders when the confidence runs out?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    in this case, what we'll see is a gradual convergence of the real LFPR and the demographically-adjusted LFPR over time. a relatively short period of time, too, as the economy recovers and this shows up as a lagging indicator function.
    As you know I do not agree with you that US economy is 'recovering'; simply creating the same bubbles that lead you to where you are now. Investors borrowed $384.4 billion in April, a 1.3% gain from the previous month and a 29% rise from the same month last year. This is an all-time record for margin debt and it exceeds the previous high mark set in June 2007... People aren't becoming wealthier in the real sense - just more endebted. When the next bubbles burst it's the end of the $.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it is (US population increasing). but the retirement of the abnormally large baby boomer generation (hence the name...) will mean a reduced level of overall labor force participation over the long-run. that still means millions of new workers, though, because the overall population is still growing-- and thus the US remains the one-eyed king in the land of the blind, so to speak.
    What? Forgive me if I'm being stupid (I am blonde) but "will mean a reduced level of overall labor force participation over the long-run" seems to contradict "that still means millions of new workers, though, because the overall population is still growing". Which is it?

    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Funny how the "we are back" crowd is avoiding the part-time economy which is a direct result of Obamacare.
    Have some facts Obamacare:

    Back in 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid. Today, one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid, and things are about to get a whole lot worse. It is being projected that Obamacare will add 16 million more Americans to the Medicaid rolls. it is being projected that the number of Americans on Medicare will grow from 50.7 million in 2012 to 73.2 million in 2025. At this point, Medicare is facing unfunded liabilities of more than 38 trillion dollars over the next 75 years. That comes to approximately $328,404 for every single household in the United States.

    Mary Meeker's Definitive Guide To The American Public Debt Crisis - Business Insider
    Is Obama Creating A Nation Of Dependents? Nearly Half Now Get Government Benefits - Investors.com (registration needed)
    40 Statistics About The Fall Of The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe

    The US 'middle class' is being robbed blind by Bernanke and Obama... There is will NOT be any 'recovery' until these politicians who represent only 'interest groups', corporations and bankers are swept from power and a free market re-instituted. You have forgotten your Constitution.

  4. #19
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    Remind me again when Obama care is supposed to be fully in place?

    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Funny how the "we are back" crowd is avoiding the part-time economy which is a direct result of Obamacare.

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  5. #20
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    Snapper,

    Five years after the Great Depression began, unemployment was three times what it is today. Considering that the past five years were far more than a recession, what rate did you expect?

    . . . . .

    Stimulus . . . American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). $288 billion (37%) in tax cuts supported by zero GOPer representatives and three GOPer senators. $144 billion in support for state and local budgets, supported by zero GOPer representatives and three GOPer senators. And $357 billion in federal spending on transport, communications, waste water and sewer infrastructure, energy efficiency, unemployment benefits, etc. . . . supported by zero GOPer representatives and three GOPer senators.

    (Martin Feldstein supported it, but thought more should have been spent on consumers and unemployment support. Paul Krugman thought it was too small. Larry Klein, Paul Samuelson and Joe Stiglitz also supported it. The Cato Institute did not [*gasp*].)

    By Q-3 2011, the CBO estimated that the ARRA created between 500,000 and 3.3 million jobs, reducing unemployment by 0.3 to 2.1 percentage points.

    . . . . .

    QEternity, as you call it, is about financial sector liquidity. The “differential between GDP and debt that continues to widen” was addressed in the previous (closed) thread: if you want to decrease the debt-to-GDP ratio, as happened under Clinton and Eisenhower, you need to run a surplus larger than debt repayments, including interest.

    Extremely rare breed of red herring, nearly extinct.

    The FDIC will support deposit holders.

    . . . . .

    The newspapers this week are full of front-page coverage of the rebound in the US economy. But, you must be better informed than they are.

    Investor borrowing / margin debt is unrelated to the real economy.

    . . . . .

    Labor force demographic:
    Start with 100 million workers.
    Subtract 30 million retirees.
    Add 29 million new workers.

    Net result: "reduced level of overall labor force participation over the long-run” and “means millions of new workers.”

    . . . . .

    Some Obamacare facts.

    1. It didn’t exist in 1965.

    2. It has yet to be fully implemented in 2013.

    3. The number of people receiving Medicaid in 1965 was highly similar to the number of people benefitting from Obamacare in 2013 for the simple reason that neither program had yet been fully rolled out.

    4. Mary Meeker is a securities analyst accused of fraud, not a CBO economist.

    5. investors.com is famous for saying Stephen Hawking wouldn’t have had a chance of getting decent healthcare if he’d lived in the UK.

    6. theeconomiccollapseblog is an end-of-the-world blog, not a source.

  6. #21
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    DOR,

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Labor force demographic:
    Start with 100 million workers.
    Subtract 30 million retirees.
    Add 29 million new workers.
    Aging of the labor force might look new for USA, but only because in the past it was covered by immigrants.
    Why shrinking now?
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  7. #22
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    Full time workers as a percent of total-Employment.
    Ergo if participation is 60% and full time workers are 80% and part-time workers are 20%
    it just means that out of 60% participation (12% are part time workforce or every 5th worker).

    Are you trying to be disingenuous.

    Obamacare forces healthy to pay for the sick by maximizing the lowest premium to include every possible exclusion. In essence every healthy person would subsidize not just the average sick person but the sickest of the sick with every payment. Statistically it inflates premiums of insurance companies taken in while limiting the incidence of those people based on the actual distribution.

    It does not work because its not affordable. Something very simple will sink it, like non-compliance.
    You also have to realize the absolute absurdity of payments to doctors being more or less controlled. Ergo imagine multiple layers of administration increase between doctor and patient (payment wise) with the doctor being paid less and less not just as a percentage but in real dollars per procedure or visit while the parasitic middle gets fatter and fatter for providing paper pushing. At some point it simply makes sense to take cash, ignore the paperwork and cut the middle man out, be it in this country or another (medical tourism).

    And all the king's horses and all the king's men won't be able to put together humpty dumpty (obamacare) together again.

    FDIC guarantee will end once one big bank goes down and people can't get their money out to pay their bills. You're money may be guaranteed but cash on hand will be king because whatever electronic numbers you have may not be accessible[for months]. During that time however long it is of duress the imprint of that guarantee in the psyche of the populous will be lost for generations. Imagine not having access to your bank account for six months...
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  8. #23
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    snapper,

    Chart 3 says as I said; that despite 5 years of stimulus and monetary insanity (which is literally akin to robbery for the 'man on the street') 'workforce participation' - the actual number of people working is around 1.5% lower than the demographics (or his demographic model) would account for.
    see the rest of my earlier response.

    Wasn't the stimulus spending supposed to cure this? Wasn't QEternity?
    the stimulus and QE were never meant to cover the entire gap. the US has a $14-15 trillion economy. stimulus is $787 billion. QE is estimated to have the impact of approx $40 bil a month. significant numbers but pales against the size of the overall US economy.

    moreover, the extent of the recession was not realized until the stimulus bill had long passed; it turns out most people underestimated its severity by roughly 25-30%.

    contrast this to the size of WWII deficit spending, where the US by 1945 was spending on defense alone 65% of the 1940 GDP. this is equivalent to a stimulus bill of approximately $8+ trillion in today's dollars...a stimulus which was repeated in 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1944, accelerating each year. the total spending was almost 200% of 1940 GDP, which means a stimulus bill today of $30-32 trillion!

    so the current-day stimulus is relatively small beans. and for some reason the US did not fall into a horrific depression post-1945, despite this type of spending. why?

    this is NOT to say that WWII-levels of spending would practicable or even good for us today, but just to point out that there are parameters where deficit spending is manageable and a benefit.

    What about the differential between GDP and debt that continues to widen?
    it is shrinking in the short-medium term and will stabilize around 75-80%, the debt load of Germany. which as we all know is currently undergoing a severe depression and double digit unemployment and bankruptcy due to its insanely high debt levels....

    "will mean a reduced level of overall labor force participation over the long-run" seems to contradict "that still means millions of new workers, though, because the overall population is still growing".
    this concept is not hard to understand. i'll use an exaggerated example.

    say country x in 1950 has 100 million people and a labor force participation of 75%. 75 million workers.
    after 50 years, country x has 300 million people and due to demographics, labor force participation is now down to 50%. 175 million workers.

    ie, millions of new workers despite a significantly lower labor force participation rate.
    Last edited by astralis; 29 May 13, at 14:54.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Full time workers as a percent of total-Employment.
    Ergo if participation is 60% and full time workers are 80% and part-time workers are 20%
    it just means that out of 60% participation (12% are part time workforce or every 5th worker).

    Are you trying to be disingenuous.
    Did you even notice the graph I posted?


    Obamacare forces healthy to pay for the sick by maximizing the lowest premium to include every possible exclusion. In essence every healthy person would subsidize not just the average sick person but the sickest of the sick with every payment
    I see you understand the concept of insurance. Good.


    And all the king's horses and all the king's men won't be able to put together humpty dumpty (obamacare) together again.
    So, how would you explain the many countries with national healthcare programs?


    FDIC guarantee will end once one big bank goes down and people can't get their money out to pay their bills. You're money may be guaranteed but cash on hand will be king because whatever electronic numbers you have may not be accessible[for months]....
    And, don't understand the FDIC.

  10. #25
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    Obamacare forces healthy to pay for the sick by maximizing the lowest premium to include every possible exclusion. In essence every healthy person would subsidize not just the average sick person but the sickest of the sick with every payment. Statistically it inflates premiums of insurance companies taken in while limiting the incidence of those people based on the actual distribution.

    It does not work because its not affordable. Something very simple will sink it, like non-compliance.
    also note that the CURRENT-DAY system is that the US -already- subsidizes healthcare (not healthcare insurance, healthcare) for everyone. people go to the emergency room, the most expensive form of healthcare, and cannot be turned away.

    obamacare is a gauche, inelegant solution precisely because the US is not willing to embrace the obvious solution of a national healthcare program, be it a public option or single-payer.

    on the other hand, though, healthcare costs have actually stabilized and -shrunk- since obamacare passed, so much so that the CBO has had to re-evaluate its (positive) effect on US finances. coincidence?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    also note that the CURRENT-DAY system is that the US -already- subsidizes healthcare (not healthcare insurance, healthcare) for everyone. people go to the emergency room, the most expensive form of healthcare, and cannot be turned away.

    obamacare is a gauche, inelegant solution precisely because the US is not willing to embrace the obvious solution of a national healthcare program, be it a public option or single-payer.

    on the other hand, though, healthcare costs have actually stabilized and -shrunk- since obamacare passed, so much so that the CBO has had to re-evaluate its (positive) effect on US finances. coincidence?

    national healthcare would mean rationing based on quantity
    as we have things now we ration based on price.

    what we are getting is a price based solution where a 3rd party the insurance company sets prices at maximum while quantity of care based on that price is divided up into smaller pieces.

    Emergency room care is paid at the incidence, but here we will have emergency room prices pre-event payable by all. It seems far more expensive this way. CBO is a puppet at this point, and premiums actually skyrocketed in real life.

    ObamaCare triumph: health insurance premiums skyrocket $3000 | Human Events
    Health Insurance Premiums Rise Sharply in 2011 - ABC News
    2012, 2011
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/06/bu...anted=all&_r=0
    2013
    In California, Aetna is proposing rate increases of as much as 22 percent, Anthem Blue Cross 26 percent and Blue Shield of California 20 percent for some of those policy holders, according to the insurers’ filings with the state for 2013. These rate requests are all the more striking after a 39 percent rise sought by Anthem Blue Cross in 2010 helped give impetus to the law, known as the Affordable Care Act, which was passed the same year and will not be fully in effect until 2014.

    In other states, like Florida and Ohio, insurers have been able to raise rates by at least 20 percent for some policy holders. The rate increases can amount to several hundred dollars a month.
    Its OK all these increases were properly "adjusted"... By the bureau of propaganda management.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  12. #27
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    cyppok,

    national healthcare would mean rationing based on quantity
    as we have things now we ration based on price.
    this is incorrect. in fact, there are -huge- disparities in hospital billing, for largely unknown reasons.

    One hospital charges $8,000

    Emergency room care is paid at the incidence, but here we will have emergency room prices pre-event payable by all.
    uh, no. there IS no spike; premiums were going up at this rate earlier, while healthcare costs have frozen.

    How will Obamacare hit premiums? Let’s break down the numbers.

    “Consulting firm Milliman on Thursday issued a really in depth report on how Obamacare will likely change the cost of health insurance in the state. It’s a great way to break down how the cost of coverage will change next year—and also why it’s difficult to make any broad statements about the future of health insurance costs.
    Milliman starts by walking through all the factors that will make insurance more expensive in 2014. One has nothing to do with the health-care law at all: The firm expects premiums to rise 9 percent next year, due to rising health-care prices. This increase would be in line with the premium hikes seen in recent years. "We assumed the average increase in premiums from 2013 to 2014, in the absence of the Affordable Care Act changes, to be 9.0 percent,” the report says, noting that individual market premium hikes last year ranged between 7 and 11 percent. The 9 percent increase would happen regardless of Obamacare, so it’s hard to count those as a result of the law.
    that said, what happens is that premiums for everyone with insurance would go up, but NOT to "emergency room" levels; by 14%. which is more than compensated by the fact that the far more expensive medical care costs have frozen and are indeed going down. if you don't have health insurance, not only will you be able to finally get it, it will be significantly cheaper than what it would be otherwise.

    CBO is a puppet at this point,
    once again, "if the data does not fit my preconceived notions there must be a conspiracy involved."
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #28
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    cyppok,

    Your are right to point out that all healthcare, everywhere in the world, is rationed one way or another. It is the nature of the beast.

    Some ration by price (e.g., the US).
    Some ration by quality (e.g., North Korea).
    And, some ration by quantity (e.g., waiting lists in the UK, Hong Kong and many other national providers).

    But, to call the CBO a puppet is unfounded. Disagree if you wish, and please provide reliable sources. But, don’t attack the messenger.

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    I find it odd that double digit growth lets say 15% is construed as low compared to 30% before.
    If we consider the underlying economy grows at 3% then the magnitude of healthcare is only 5TIMES the growth of the economy. If we consider that 15% of person spend is on food and 35-40%+ is on shelter, there seems to be a wall where taking purchasing power on the margin from people and distributing it to health spend runs out.

    Assuming current growth rates health would grow to 20 then 30 then 40% in some short number of years, faster than the economy in multiples of times. Which is really impossible in the grand scheme of things. Simply take the economy and the health sector and use the exponential function on each with estimated growth rates, somewhere soon one eclipses another. A subset derivative (health) going above the economy from which it is derived is not going to happen.

    CBO stopped being relevant when they revise estimates based on politics instead of on the ground realities. It is theoretically impossible for prices to decrease while plan rates go up in double digits, the amount of hedonic adjustments made makes all of this bullshitology...

    A lot of providers jacked up prices before Obamacare passed significantly and yet the study that includes reaction to this action is called biased. It seems if I run in-front of your action and am influenced by it, therefor it caused me to do something in this case raise health costs. The funny aspect is it increased costs both pre and post adoption. I can now raise your deductible and lower your fee and yet on the margin you pay more, and yet its' called "savings" unfortunately the consumer still pays more.
    Last edited by cyppok; 30 May 13, at 05:37.
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    cryppok,

    It is theoretically impossible for prices to decrease while plan rates go up in double digits, the amount of hedonic adjustments made makes all of this bullshitology...
    it's VERY possible. as i said earlier, medical prices, especially hospital bills, are wildly disconnected from supply and demand calculations, because hospitals hold a monopoly on information that until recently made it impossible for a consumer to judge.

    even now, with hospital prices published, would you compare hospitals based on pricing while racing to the ER?

    as insurance companies start shouldering a heavier burden, this creates more of an antagonistic relationship with the hospital where they try to negotiate down drug prices; this works in conjunction with the recent opening of hospital chargemasters. thus premiums go up to cover additional people while overall medical prices go down because of greater access to information.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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