Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The US Recovery

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by zraver View Post
    It's even worse when you consider all of the net addition to June jobs - repeat, all - were part time. Compared with the 360,000 part-time positions created, full-time employment shrank by 240,000.

    Year to date, only 130,000 full-time jobs have been added to our economy. The rest of the jobs - 557,000 - have been part time.
    [http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...s/LNU02500000]
    [http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...s/LNU02600000]

    2013 _ Full-time _ Part-time
    Feb _ 114,191 _ _ 28,037
    Mar _ 114,796 _ _ 27,902
    Apr _ 115,674 _ _ 28,050
    May _ 116,643 _ _ 27,789
    Jun _ 117,400 _ _ 27,442
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

    Comment


    • dead links

      2013 _ Full-time _ Part-time
      Feb _ 114,191 _ _ 28,037
      Mar _ 114,796 _ _ 27,902
      Apr _ 115,674 _ _ 28,050
      May _ 116,643 _ _ 27,789
      Jun _ 117,400 _ _ 27,442
      I trust Investors Business Daily over dead links sorry.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by zraver View Post
        dead links



        I trust Investors Business Daily over dead links sorry.
        I managed to get in to them. When it brought up the 'dead' page & just used the 'back' arrow & they came up.
        sigpic

        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

        Comment


        • Attached Files

          Comment


          • Originally posted by zraver View Post
            dead links
            Same to me. BF's advice wont work here, since it opens new page when you click the link.

            I trust Investors Business Daily over dead links sorry.
            Any reason to not trust DOR's word on this? I don't.
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post

              Any reason to not trust DOR's word on this? I don't.
              Yes plenty of reason, he is manipulating the numbers to paint a picture of a situation that does not exist. IBD took numbers created minus numbers lost to arrive at a net number. This net number smacks DOR's fishing story of a recovery in the face. Thats why I keep saying what recovery.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                Same to me. BF's advice wont work here, since it opens new page when you click the link.
                Opened in a new page for me too. Oh well, hopefully he can re-post.
                sigpic

                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                Comment


                • zraver,

                  I don’t question your professional integrity, and I’d thank you not to question mine.

                  For some reason, the US Census Bureau website is blocked in Hong Kong. I hope the Fed isn’t going the same way.

                  Go to research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
                  In the top right search box, type in LNU02500000 (those are all zeros). Execute.
                  Then, type in LNU02600000. Execute.

                  Compare and contrast.

                  = = = = =

                  Doktor,
                  Thanks (I think . . . ?)

                  = = = = =

                  Good piece in The Spectator on the US economy. Household debt:income ratio down from 137% to 116%, Federal deficit down from 10.1% to forecast 2.5% in 2015, and the reduction in the last three years was the sharpest in the post-WWII era.

                  And, it points out, this is without the US Government firing on all cylinders. Congress has been on strike while the economy recovered, leaving the heavy lifting to the Executive Branch, Federal Reserve and the courts.

                  In fact, Congress’ only “contribution” was to kill off the United States’ AAA rating.

                  Food for thought.
                  Trust me?
                  I'm an economist!

                  Comment


                  • Seriously David you have to stop believing everything the mainstream media says. There are two and only two ways this gets resolved: IF gilt yields continue to rise next week on 'taper' worries King Ben has little choice but to buy 'moar' otherwise fiscal cuts are required to pay the interest. The property market - as the chart I posted above shows will fall as mortgage rates rise - and the Fed is left with $1 trillion + of losses. If he 'twists' it's long term poison as we known - default depends on when the $ becomes truly Wiemar and that may take a year or more or less. If he doesn't 'twist' the real rates rise whatever the Fed says, the housing market declines or collapses and people stop spending - the equities markets are not yet reflecting 'real' value either and they are due for a move downward. Then Obama has to go plead the opposite of everything he believes in. Can you imagine it? "Fellow Americans we are in a crisis and have to cut spending"!! What???? Why didn't he do that when he was first elected? Could he have fibbed? :fish: There has been no recovery, there has been asset inflation and wage depression. More people are more in debt than in 2008 and the banks are having their assets falsely inflated in the equities and mortgage markets. Recovery takes real profit, new business's and more people earning an increasing wage in the private sector because the company is making a profit. All the rest is pseudo Keynesian statistical manipulation and politicians vote buying. Only profitable private business's produce new revenue and for more of them to be started and for the existed ones to grow a higher bank interest rate is needed. Instead the Fed in cahoots with the economically ignorant Obama have done the reverse. My advice for the next President is default and abolish the cartel enterprise that is the Federal Reserve. Then allow secession and quit.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                      zraver,

                      I don’t question your professional integrity, and I’d thank you not to question mine.

                      For some reason, the US Census Bureau website is blocked in Hong Kong. I hope the Fed isn’t going the same way.

                      Go to research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
                      In the top right search box, type in LNU02500000 (those are all zeros). Execute.
                      Then, type in LNU02600000. Execute.

                      Compare and contrast.
                      2008- 122 million people usually work full time, 6-13 down to 117 million usually work full time. Those are hard numbers from your LNU02500000

                      US population in 2008 was about 306 million, in 2013 it is estimated at 316 million.

                      We have added 10 million people but have 5 million less full time workers. For that to possibly square with your previously claims of natural attrition we would need 15 million people retiring. Boomers started mass retirements in Jan 2011- 10,000 a day. From then to now gives a number of just 9.12 million people leaving the workforce. Previous retirment may drive that to 11-12 million.

                      There are more than 3 million missing full time jobs. The fact that the US is transitioning to a part time economy in part due to Obamacare and in part to bad economic policy by the executive and federal reserve is not even in contention. Obama has spent 5 years now demonizing business while the fed crushes the dollars value. Start ups are at an all time low as is the job creation they traditionally drive. Income is declining, full time jobs are vanishing, gold has been since the middle of the last decade stronger against the dollar than ever before, multiple economic bubbles, big banks remain too big to fail.... Indicator after indicator says this is really either a double dip recession or a prolonged shallow depression. Yet you want us to believe that we live on Candy Mountain. Not only that, a lot pf people who took a break from the economy in 08 are now trying to re-enter the workforce with new earned degrees and failing hence the rising rate of people with degrees working menial jobs (the US adds over 3 million people with degrees every year) .

                      If you want your professional integrity to be respected don't try and feed us gilded horseshit. Is the economy as good as it was NO, is it getting better- far too slowly and only for some because of failed economic policies.
                      Last edited by zraver; 08 Jul 13,, 04:19.

                      Comment


                      • snapper,

                        There might have been some time, way in the past, when I posted something about gilts, but for the life of me I can’t recall when, in what context or how it figures in my recent posts.

                        The US Federal Reserve Board is not “the mainstream media.” As for The Spector, I posted it as “food for thought,” not necessarily something that anyone – including me – should take as the be all and end all of anything at all.

                        Your chart: Thirteen years of data is a nice long run. But, the world changed half way through that span. As the man said, past performance may not be be indicative of future results.

                        The equities markets have a long and storied history of getting it wrong, or getting right much it too early.

                        US Federal Government spending has been dropping as a share of GDP, and in real terms. GDP grew an average of 1.9% over the past four years, while real federal spending fell 0.3%. Of course, if Mr Obama had been foolish enough to do a Europe on the American economy right from the first day in office, GDP would have been falling, too. Simply put, he and his economic advisers weren’t that dumb.

                        “There has been no recovery.” Excuse me?
                        Mr Obama is in his 19th quarter in office, and we have almost complete data for 17 quarters.

                        The First 10 Quarters _ _ The Latest 7 Quarters
                        Real GDP _ _ +0.1% p.a._ _ _ +2.0% p.a.
                        Real PCE _ _ _+0.5% p.a. _ _ +2.0% p.a.
                        Real CAP _ _ _-3.4% p.a. _ _ +8.0% p.a.
                        Real Income _ _ -0.5% p.a. _ _ +1.7% p.a.

                        Now, I will grant you that there are differently, perfectly valid definitions of “recovery.” But, given the numbers above, and the experience in Europe during that time, I’ll go with the US model.

                        In the first half of this year, the average private sector hourly wage was $23.87. In the first half of 2009 it was $22.11. See also “real incomes” above.

                        As for higher bank interest rates as the way to recovery, please consider the case of Japan. You’re starting to sound like Paul Krugman, ca. 2006!

                        While I applaud your honesty in proposing the utter destruction of the US economy and dismantling of the nation, I disagree. Honestly, snapper, you have got to stop watching Fox News!

                        = = = = =

                        zraver,

                        Yes, employment is a lagging indicator; so, what else is new? Well, how about increasing full-time employment this year, and decreasing part-time work? Yes, November 2007 saw the largest number of people in full-time employment. Are we measuring things from the peak now? In that case, full-time employees as a share of total employment was highest in January 1968.

                        So, when was it that I suggested this was the best of all possible recoveries? Aren’t I the one who has been harping on about “that was no recession” ? Rather, I have repeatedly said "why would anyone expect a normal recovery after what we went through" ?

                        Yet, we do have signs of life, regardless of how offended people feel about their precious preconceived notions.

                        Gold: The 1990s were the only decade since WWII when the average dollar price of gold was lower than in the previous decade. But, also remember that an ounce of gold in the 1950s bought 12.5 barrels of oil, in the 1970s 13 barrels, and in the last 15 years it bought . . . 12.9 barrels.
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                          Doktor,
                          Thanks (I think . . . ?)
                          We have different view on some topics, but I don't have valid reason to not trust the numbers you post. Thank yourself for that, not me.

                          Food for thought.
                          Markets self-regulate without government intervention? Is that a rocket science?
                          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post

                            zraver,

                            Yes, employment is a lagging indicator; so, what else is new? Well, how about increasing full-time employment this year, and decreasing part-time work?
                            The recession has been "officialy" over for years, yet we still have millions of missing full time jobs. That is not lagging that is GONE.

                            Yes, November 2007 saw the largest number of people in full-time employment. Are we measuring things from the peak now? In that case, full-time employees as a share of total employment was highest in January 1968.
                            It was your source of data, not my fault what you picked data that says the same thing I do- what recovery?

                            So, when was it that I suggested this was the best of all possible recoveries? Aren’t I the one who has been harping on about “that was no recession” ? Rather, I have repeatedly said "why would anyone expect a normal recovery after what we went through" ?
                            Nice red herring, but i never said that about you. I hold you accountable for what you do say. Sadly what you say does not jive with the real world. That is why I got on to you for trying to feed us gilded shit.

                            Yet, we do have signs of life, regardless of how offended people feel about their precious preconceived notions.
                            Signs.... Yet there is sound evidence that if you and those like you and the idiots in government your stupid economic ideas influenced had stopped meddling we would be roaring back to life by now, not coughing and spitting. Keynesians are the biggest source of poverty and suffering in the West- more dangerous than any terrorist. You played with trillions and enslaved billions and no matter how many times you come up FAIL you keep thinking just a little bit more meddling with do the trick.

                            One day they will come for the lawyers, hopefully they string up the economists as well.

                            Gold: The 1990s were the only decade since WWII when the average dollar price of gold was lower than in the previous decade. But, also remember that an ounce of gold in the 1950s bought 12.5 barrels of oil, in the 1970s 13 barrels, and in the last 15 years it bought . . . 12.9 barrels.
                            Which just goes to show how jacked up monetary policy is. All you and you're have done is create poverty and oppression

                            Comment


                            • I am missing something here.

                              Z, no need to personally attack DOR, he is reading the data his own way and has his own opinion on the data at hand. Same goes for you.
                              Why lower the bar and go into personal attacks?
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                I am missing something here.

                                Z, no need to personally attack DOR, he is reading the data his own way and has his own opinion on the data at hand. Same goes for you.
                                Why lower the bar and go into personal attacks?
                                His reply earlier in the thread, “
                                The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 3 characters.

                                Curly
                                Moe
                                Larry
                                Snide is as snide does

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X